The prospect of a rise in US interest rates and the feeling that the Greek crisis is about to come to an end with no positive outcome in sight are conditioning the financial markets. Asian price lists showed little movement: Tokyo -0,1%, Hong Kong -0,6% also down.
Positive data from the US economy (orders of durable goods, home sales and consumer confidence higher than expected) have instead rekindled fears about a forthcoming rate hike. Ultimately, the Dow Jones index fell 1,04%, the S&P 500 about 1% and the Nasdaq 1,11%.
The dollar started to rise again: 1,0876 against the euro from 1,097 in the wake of Janet Yellen's words. The Fed chairman said last Friday that if the US economy continues to improve, as he expects, US rates will rise by 2015. The same view was reiterated yesterday by US bank vice president Stanley Fischer.
The price of oil fell: the WTI fell by 1,69 dollars to 58,03 dollars, while the Brent fell by 1,9 dollars to 63,62 dollars.
IN EUROPE IT IS NOT ONLY THE BUSINESS AREA
The Greek emergency prevents Europe from reaping the fruits of the weakening of the single currency and the drop in crude oil. The Milan Stock Exchange was the only one to close on positive ground. The Vix index, which measures volatility, rose to a 5-week high. The FtseMib index closed up 0,1%, after losing 2,1% the previous day.
The stock exchanges of London and Frankfurt, which stopped on Monday, finished the day with falls of 1,1% and 1,6% respectively, Paris fell by 0,6%, Madrid -0,7%.
BTP AND BONOS LIVE. TODAY THE AUCTION BOT
On the government bond market, the German Bund strengthened with the yield falling to 0,55% from 0,60% on Friday. The BTP suffers with the yield rising to 1,93% from 1,84%, the spread widens by 14 points to 137. The spread of the Spanish Bono widens by 16 basis points, the Greek one by 54 basis points.
Yesterday the Treasury Ministry placed 2,978 billion Ctz (at 0,062% against the previous 0,079%) and indexed BTPs. Today the 6-month BOTs are going to auction.
ATHENS, THE COUNTDOWN HAS BEGUN
There are no substantial changes in the negotiations between international creditors and Greece. The yield on Athens bonds signals that the country is Roman in the default zone: the two-year bond rose to 24,5%. But there are positive signs. After minister Yannis Varoufakis's soothing statements, a German government official described Greece's attitude as "encouraging". "I don't think - he added - that there will be talk of insolvency neither on June 5 nor in the very short term".
"A non-payment to the IMF - Giuseppe Sersale of Anthilia writes in this regard - does not immediately cause a default (there is a 2-month grace period), and, provided that tangible progress is seen by that date, June 6 does not constitute a real deadline. If a draft deal is reached, the ECB may allow Greece to issue T-bills to pay the Fund. If, on the other hand, the date is still wall-to-wall, it is highly probable that Draghi will cut the ELA, forcing the country to implement capital controls and the banks to haircut deposits. The next few days are decisive”.
CHINESE RATES FALL, FERRAGAMO SUPERSTAR
In Piazza Affari the luxury titles gained: Ferragamo +3,6%, Tod's +2%, Luxottica +1%. The prices were driven by the news that from 1 June the duties on many goods, from cosmetics to luxury goods, will be halved. The decision tends to reduce the strong price difference between the prices of the western shopping capitals (including Milan) compared to those practiced in Shanghai or Hong Kong, which are on the rise after the revaluation of the yuan.
According to Kepler Chevreux, the most advantaged brand will be Ferragamo, followed by Tod's and Moncler (-0,17%).
MONTE PASCHI, YESTERDAY IN RED TITLE AND RIGHTS
MontePaschi ends the session down by 16%, the right relating to the capital increase loses 9,3%. The stock closed down 17% at 1,78 euros. The option right ended trading at a price of 5,57 euros. Volumes were high. More than 57 million shares and 25 million rights have been transferred.
Consob notices revealed that Btg Pactual fell to 1,9% on 18 May from the 2,001% previously held. The MPS Foundation, on the other hand, dropped from 20% to 21% with two operations on 2,5 and 1,55 May and will subscribe to the capital increase on this share.
GENERALI IN BREATH WAITING FOR THE INVESTOR DAY
Alternate performance for the banking sector: fromassembly of the Bank of Italy no new indications have arrived for the future restructuring of credit. Unicredit closes unchanged, Intesa -0,6%. Bpm +1,5%, Banco Popolare +0,4% and Mediobanca +0,3% are on positive ground.
Carige fell sharply (-3,67%) while waiting to know the discount at which the 850 million euro capital increase will take place.
Positive for Generali (+1%) in anticipation of today's Investor Day: a report by JPMorgan (overweight) states that "the Investor will define a new strategy after the conclusion of the previous 2013-2015 program", and that the main the focus will be “organic growth, cost reduction and Solvency 2”.
FCA TO THE RESCUE. MORGAN STANLEY AWARDS THE MARCHIONNE RECIPE
Fiat Chrysler slows down the decline: +3,6% to 14,46 euros. The number two of General Motors, Dan Ammann, in Turin for the tenth anniversary of the diesel engine research center, does not comment on the merger proposal that Marchionne would have launched to the US group.
The manager, a former investment banker at Morgan Stanley, reaffirms Mary Barra's line: GM is not interested in maxi-mergers, but is open to specific collaborations. "We have a target of 20% return on investment" added the former banker of Morgan Stanley "and in the last couple of years we have managed to stay at this level".
Morgan Stanley confirmed the overweight recommendation on the FCA stock and the target price of 17 euros: Marchionne's recipes in the face of the possible difficulties in the sector are "honest and original" claims the analyst of the investment bank.
Exor rebounds (+1,56%), CnhIndustrial climbs (+1,4%), exited yesterday from Mediobanca's Short portfolio. Among industrialists, StM +1,1%, Finmeccanica +2,9%. Enel +0,56%. Fitch confirmed the bbb+ rating, oulook stable.
LAZIO ALSO DEFEAT IN THE BUSINESS PLACE
Aedes shines (+7%) on the impetus of the next capital increase, the last step in the group's restructuring.
Lazio slips (-10%) after that defeat in the derby sees qualification for the next Champions League at risk. Little movement in Rome (+0,54%).
