The financial week continues at a slow trot. In the East, the vacation of Tokyo and Shanghai continues, while the Asia Pacific index marks an imperceptible -0,05%. Last night, Fed Chairman Jerome Powell repeated his usual mantra: the economy is better, but we haven't gotten out of the emergency yet. "A general improvement is underway - he said - but now we have to get down to the particular situations, where there are critical points". In short, woe to give life to the "tapering", the progressive cut of aid that caused so much damage a few years ago when Ben Bernanke tried to return to the normal situation. In this context, Europe, the continent that started the recovery last, acknowledges that 75% of the quarterly reports close better than expected, as well as the Italian GDP in the first quarter.
In Asia this morning, Hong Kong's Hang Seng is up 0,2%, while Taipei's Taiex is down 1,5%, recovering from -3,5% at the start of the session. Seoul's Kospi -0,2%, Mumbai's BSE Sensex +0,3%, Sydney's S&P ASX 200 +0,5%, awaiting central bank rate decisions.
CLOTHING FLIES, COSMETICS COLLAPSE
Wall Street futures are slightly down following a mixed session: the Nasdaq down (-0,5%) and the Dow Jones up (+0,7%).
Stocks related to clothing fly by, from Appareil to Gap up to Foot Locker (+4,1%). Setback for Aestée Lauder (-7,6%): the sale of cosmetics collapsed in the closing season. eBay rises in the Nasdaq (+4,2%): the site has announced that from now on it will accept cryptocurrencies.
APPLE QUOTED BY VIDEO GAMES: WANTS 3% FOR THE APP
The focus is on the California court, which today will have to rule on Epic Games' appeal against Apple. The video game company contests, under antitrust law, having to pay 30% of revenues to Apple in exchange for the use of the App.
RAW MATERIAL PRICES BOOM
The recovery in commodity prices is taking shape. The Bloomberg commodity index is one step away from a three-year high, at 91,08. The price of corn, never so high in the last eight years, has gained more than 2021% since the beginning of 50. Aluminum and copper mark an increase of 21% and 26%. Timber also leads the way.
WTI oil, which moved little at $64,3 a barrel this morning, is 31% higher than it was on Jan. XNUMX.
Gold, which rose 1,5% yesterday following the decline in the yield on the 1.789-year Treasury Note, is down slightly to $XNUMX an ounce this morning.
DIVORCE OF THE CENTURY BETWEEN BILL AND MELINDA GATES
In a relatively calm phase of the economic situation, the closure of apparently incurable conflicts such as the one between Mediaset and Vivendi stands out, but also a sensational and unexpected divorce: the end of the marriage between Bill and Melinda Gates: assets of 124 billion dollars his (65 years old), 56 hers, a key figure in philanthropy.
WARREN BUFFET
Meanwhile, Warren Buffett has chosen his heir to the leadership of Berkshire Hathaway: Greg Abel, Canadian, energy expert. Meanwhile, the controversy explodes between the wise man of Omaha and the Robinhooders, the army of amateur traders who refuse the guidance of experts. “These are people who can only look at the short term,” Buffett said. Financial Robinhood, a trading platform followed by millions of retail customers, published a vitriolic response via Jacqueline Ortiz Ramsay, the firm's head of public policy communications: “If we have to learn anything from the last year, it's that people are tired of Warren Buffett around the world, who behave as if they were the only prophets of trading”.
THE EU RUNS. DE GUINDOS: TOWARDS A VERY POSITIVE SEMESTER
"In April, the manufacturing sector in the Eurozone grew strongly: for the second consecutive month, the PMI figure reached a record value," commented yesterday Chris Williamson, the IHS Markit economist who monitors the economy every month. The past two months have seen output and new orders grow at record rates since the survey began in 1997, with demand expansion "spurred by the reopening of the economy as Covid-19 restrictions eased and from the positive forecasts for next year”. The manufacturing index of the Eurozone has risen to 62,9 points.
But there's a problem. The difficulties on the European industry's distribution chain "are reaching unprecedented levels and are causing a backlog of unfulfilled orders at the factories". However, beyond this risk, most share the prediction of the vice president of the ECB, Luis De Guindos: "The second half of the year will be very positive". Then, “when the economy begins to normalize, monetary policy must also begin to normalize”. Then it will be necessary to proceed with caution, to avoid the "risk of strangling the recovery".
EUROSTAT: ITALY BETTER THAN GERMANY, FRANCE AT THE TOP
The latest Eurostat data confirm the positive trend, with the surprise that the Italian economy is doing better than that of Germany, which has had to resort to a new lockdown. In the first quarter of the year, Italy's GDP fell by 1,4% year-on-year, while Germany's fell by 3%. Italy did better than the euro zone average (-1,8 percent) but decidedly worse than France, which grew by 1,5 percent. And it is the Brussels Commission itself that expects a very marked rebound, certainly more than 4 percent in 2021.
BUSINESS PLACE +1,15%, GERMAN CONSUMPTIONS FLY
Piazza Affari is the top list with an increase of 1,15%, which brings it back to 24.419 points. The Dax index also rose in Frankfurt (+0,75%), despite the drop in Deutsche Bank (-2,19%) which announced "it has finalized the 'Minerva' operation for the securitization of a portfolio of performing fixed-rate consumer loans worth around 4,74 billion in terms of residual principal". Lufthansa, on the other hand, rose (+2,9%), after CEO Carsten Spohr told a German newspaper that the company plans to offer flights to over 100 destinations. Consumption jumped by 11,0% compared to March 2020, after a 6,6% drop in February. Economists' estimates were much lower, at -0,2%.
KPN SAYS NO TO OFFER OF FUNDS
Madrid (+0,85%), Paris (+0,61%) and Amsterdam (+0,65%) also performed well.
Dutch telecommunications company KPN sells 3,5% after rejecting a takeover offer from a consortium of private equity firms including EQT AB, EQTAB.ST and Stonepeak Infrastructure Partners, and another offer by KKR.
THE SPREAD DROP TO 105, MANY BONDS ARRIVE FROM GREECE
The tensions on European government bonds are partially included. The 0,20-year German Bund traded -0,17% from -105% on Friday. The Italian secondary does better than the core bonds and ends the first session of the week up, amid thin trading. The risk premium between Italy and Germany is worth 107 basis points, from 0,84 at Friday's close. The 0,87-year reference rate is XNUMX% from XNUMX% at the end of the previous session.
After a particularly busy week for the supply of Italian paper, between month-end auctions and syndicated placement in dollars, operators are expecting new extra-calendar issues this month from Belgium, Finland and above all Greece, the latter particularly eagerly awaited after the S&P promotion.
MEDIASET/VIVENDI: PEACE MADE. POSSIBLE IMPACTS ON TELECOM
It's official: Mediaset and Vivendi have signed the peace agreement. The French group undertakes to sell 19,9% of the Berlusconi family's television networks within five years and to vote in favor of transferring the Alfa Romeo registered office to the Netherlands. Fininvest in the meeting of 23 June will ask to vote on the distribution of an extraordinary dividend of 0,30 euros (156 million for the Berlusconi), a proposal that will be supported by Vivendi and therefore will pass. The resources that will be distributed in July mostly correspond to the coupon that will be collected by Ei Towers (40% Mediaset) for the sale of its telecommunications towers.
Mediaset and Vivendi, in addition to settling past disputes, are linked for the future with a "good neighbor" agreement that could open up future scenarios that in some way involve Telecom Italia. The telecommunications giant, of which Vivendi is the leading shareholder with 23,9%, with the single network it would be the first way to stream video content, as well as Dazn's partner for Serie A football.
FERRARI TEARS ON THE EVE OF ACCOUNTS, FOLLOWS EXOR
All blue chips rose with the exception of Diasorin (-0,8%) and Stm (-1,5%).
The Agnelli galaxy is in the spotlight at the beginning of the week of the Ferrari and Stellantis quarterly reports. The red from Maranello shines (+2,55%), best stock of the day, also dragging Exor upwards (+2,2%). Cnh is also advancing (+2,1%).
GOOD STELLANTIS, WEAK CAR MARKET IN ITALY
Stellantis +1,43% after April registration data in France. With the Stock Exchange closed, the Italian data also came out. The comparison with last year is not significant, given that, due to the lockdown, only 2020 cars were sold in April 4.295. Compared to 2019, a normal year, this year registrations fell by 17,1% in April and by 16,9% in the first four months. The risk, says Gian Primo Quagliano of Promotor, is to do worse than the "catastrophic" 2020. Meanwhile, the shortage of chips has forced the closure of Melfi for a week and threatens to postpone the launch of the new Jeeps in the USA. In 2021, 1,3 million fewer machines will be produced in North America due to the lack of semiconductors.
BANKS ONE STEP FROM THE HIGHESTS. TOMORROW THE ACCOUNTS OF INTESA
Banks are prominent. On the eve of the quarter's accounts, the sector is moving one step away from the highs of the last thirteen months. It is the seventh consecutive rise, supported by the rise in market yields, driven in turn by optimism on the progress of vaccination plans (finally) in Italy. Unicredit grows by 1,85%, Banca Mediolanum does even better (+2,14%). Banco Bpm marks +1,86%. Agreement +0,56% on the eve of tomorrow's quarterly.
Insurance companies also stood out: Unipol +2,33%, followed by Generali (+1,89%).
SAIPEM RAISES ITS HEAD. CAPITAL GAIN FOR ENEL IN OPEN FIBER
Among the oil stocks, Eni (+1,71%) and Saipem (+1,95%) raise their heads. Enel +1,08% after the Board of Directors resolved to start the procedures aimed at the sale of 10% of the capital of Open Fiber to Cdp Equity.
ATLANTIA PROMOTED BY AKROS, SHAREHOLDERS' MEETING AT THE END OF THE MONTH
Atlantia did well, closing with a rise of 1,17%, despite a declining start to the session. The company has called a shareholders' meeting for the end of the month which will evaluate CDP's offer for 88% of Aspi, after the changes aimed at improving it. Banca Akros raised its target price from 17 to 18,5 euros, confirming the accumulated rating.
EXPRIVIA AND UNIEURO SHINE
Outside the main basket, Exprivia (+29,50%) goes into orbit in the light of the 2020 results (total revenues of 167,8 million, stable compared to 168,5 million in 2019).
Among the best performances is that of Unieuro (+1,98%). The stock has gained over 130% in the last six months, while the 12-month performance is 210%. Banca Akros confirmed the buy rating and the target price of 25 euro, Unidata shone on Aim (+4,41%), which closed the first quarter of 2021 with revenues of around 7,6 million (+38%) .
