The German Parliament is preparing to vote in these days on the most demanding public intervention since the days of the banking crisis of 2008/09 with an explicit objective: avoid an energy Lehman Brothers. The first move will concern the saving of Uniper, one of Europe's largest importers and distributors of gas, brought to its knees by the cut in supplies by Gazprom and the simultaneous increase in prices on the free market that cannot be passed on to end users on the basis of current contracts.
Gas and oil: saving Uniper risks not being enough
Thanks to the law being approved (in record time), the government will be able to intervene in the capital of Uniper with an injection of capital in the order of 9 billion euros. But the financial sacrifice caused by the cut off supplies through the Nord Stream pipeline runs the risk of not being isolated. Yesterday a Russian court ordered the suspension for 30 days of the oil supplies of the Caspian Pipeline Consortium (CPC), the company that manages the flows arriving from Kazakhstan fields. A technical provision that allows Putin to inflict another blow on the European energy system without giving up a single drop of crude oil.
Worse still, next July 11th Russia will close the taps of Nordstream 1, the gas pipeline leading to Germany, for ten days of scheduled maintenance. In the past this was a non-event, as Gazprom diverted flows to Ukrainian pipelines. Today there is good reason to fear that restarting the flow may not happen or be further stifled by Moscow, perhaps on the grounds that Western sanctions prevent vital repairs to pumping stations and compressors.
Germany obeys Putin, but is gearing up to do without him
In short, Putin holds the cards to blackmail Europe, starting with Germany, the first gas customer who has been forced to replenish Moscow's coffers, also yielding to the diktat of paying for supplies, albeit reduced, in rubles. Berlin is bitter, but is not sitting idly by: by Friday the Bundestag will approve another measure to accelerate production from renewable sources which, by 2030, will have to supply 80% of the energy. In the meantime, it's done regasification terminal shopping and, in spite of the "green" scruples, the coal plants.
The first trade deficit for over 30 years
But the energy shock nonetheless marked the end of an era, political even more than economic. And the consequences are destined to affect the economic and financial equilibrium of the EU, as has already been demonstrated by the news, until a few months ago less credible than an April Fool's joke, of the first German trade deficit for more than thirty years, the first poisoned fruit of theincrease in the energy bill which feeds inflation.
The end of the BundesRepublik
Of course, Germany is not alone in suffering the consequences of high energy prices. But German power is undoubtedly the first victim of the end of globalization as it has matured in the last two decades, those of the leadership in the exchanges of BundesRepublik, grown thanks to the combination of at least three factors: low-priced energy, guaranteed by Russia, the practically infinite commercial and industrial outlets thanks to the partnership with China, an industrial organization based on logistical excellence which has allowed the creation of a satellite network of German industry is global scale.
These three factors went into crisis almost simultaneously, nullifying the network of relationships and agreements developed by Angela Merkel and her former government colleague, the Social Democrat Gerhard Schroeder, already at the helm of the NorthStream 2 gas pipeline, which was supposed to allow Russian gas to arrive in Germany by sea without passing through the Baltic countries.
German-style “concerted” action
In short, a perfect storm, destined to produce its effects in apparently distant fields, including monetary policy choices. Unlike after Lehman Brothers, this time the solution cannot be limited to monetary austerity.
But Germany has an ace up its sleeve: the capacity for dialogue, indeed concertation, between the various social partners. Berlin has dusted off a tool used in other difficult phases of the last century, “concerted action”. In fact a working table which brings together government officials, entrepreneurs, trade unions, economists, university professors and the governor of the Bundesbank to informally debate the situation caused by high prices and possible solutions to defuse the social bomb. The protagonists change, but the substance remains.
On June 21st, the Minister of Industry, the green Robert Habeck, addressed the assembly of Confindustria across the Rhine thus: “When I entered the government, I promoted a meeting with the company heads of companies listed on the Dax index. On that occasion, one of the most important managers told me that, if we had met five years earlier, he would have asked me to mind my own business, that is, not to meddle in company management. Today, however, the game has profoundly changed. We must march together." “We are with you”, replied Martin Brudenmuller, CEO of Basf, that is the largest chemical company already engaged in the transformation of its huge plants. It is not an alliance of convenience, but the fruit of a virtuous journey, which began in Baden Wuttemberg, the land of Porsche and Mercedes, where the green government has favored the introduction of the electric car in every possible way.
It is not excluded, therefore, that Putin's blackmail translates into a great help to the transition of German industry and, by extension, European. But in the meantime there will be suffering.
