The Bull takes a break after the sharp rises in January, triggered by the change of course of the Fed which allowed the US stock exchanges to rise by 9%, the same as in Milan, which today will have to face yet another, obvious, downward revision of forecasts: EU macroeconomic estimates should reduce 0,2 GDP growth to +2019%, from +1,2% in November.
RESPONSE FROM GUINESS FOR BTP 30. PIAZZA AFARI AT 20 THOUSAND ALTITUDE
The deterioration of the accounts does not slow down the rush of Piazza Affari, dragged along by the banks, nor, even less, the fever for long Treasury bonds. The new 30-year BTP was placed for an amount of 8 billion against more than 40 billion requests. The stock was thus priced at 99,594, yielding 3,91%.
The euphoria did not spread to other markets, starting with Tokyo, the main Asian market open as the celebrations for the new year continue according to the Chinese calendar.
FLY SOFTBANK +15% AFTER BUYBACK
The Japanese stock market falls 1% under pressure from Toyota, -2% after disappointing profits (-81% in the quarter), which signal, like GM in the USA and Daimler in Europe, the difficult moment for the waiting car of US decisions on tariffs on four wheels.
The decline is only partially offset by the surge in SoftBank (+15%) following the announcement of a robust buyback.
Sydney, on the other hand, is progressing (+1,1%) driven by the demand for minerals: after the collapse of the dam in Brazil, the sales of the Brazilian competitor Vale collapsed.
CHIPS AGAIN: STM +5,1% IN MILAN
The US markets are slowing down slightly: attention is already focused on the next mission of Treasury Secretary Steve Mnuchin to Beijing scheduled for next week. The Dow Jones closed down -0,08%, S&P 500 -0,22%. The Nasdaq was also down, -0,36%.
The chips are in great evidence: the American semiconductor index SOX soars (+2,6%), which benefits from the 2 billion buyback announced by Skyworks Solutions (+11,5%). Texas Instruments was the top performer in the S&P100 index, up 4,5%.
Stm also benefited from this in Milan (+5,07%), also supported by a solid performance of the sector's European stoxx (+1,83%).
COLLAPSE OF VIDEO GAMES. OIL IN FLEXION
The most robust emotions were reserved by the crash of videogames: Electronics Arts -13,3% after the accounts, Activision Blizzard also badly (-10,1%).
Brent oil down 0,3% to 62,5 dollars a barrel. For about three weeks, North Sea crude has been moving in a very narrow range.
ANALYST SEE THE INDEX AT 20.400 POINTS
Third consecutive day of decline for the euro, at 1,136 against the dollar. The change incorporates the difficulties of the German economy and fears about the performance of the car.
Piazza Affari (+0,82%) rose for the sixth consecutive session, reaching 20 thousand points at an altitude of 19.996, a level it had not touched since October 2018. For a few moments, the index even exceeded the psychological threshold of 20 thousand points. Since the beginning of the year, the performance of the Ftse Mib has improved by +9%. According to analysts, the bullish phase that began at Christmas seems to have the energy to continue, more or less quickly, up to 20.400 points, a graphic threshold of great graphic importance.
The Frankfurt Dax closed down (-0,4%). The German stock market was held back by the unexpected drop in industrial orders registered in Germany in December.
Paris -0,08%; Madrid +0,1%. London -0,2% on the eve of tomorrow's meeting of the Bank of England and the Brussels summit between Theresa May and Donald Tusk to avoid a hard Brexit.
THE MONTEARIO FUND REJECTS THE GOVERNMENT. TODAY IT'S THE EU'S TURN
Bad marks continue to rain on Italy as it grapples with the yellow-green season. In 2019, Italian GDP growth will not exceed 0,4%. To have a recovery, albeit timid, we will have to wait for the second half of the year. The Parliamentary Budget Office writes it in the note on the economic situation of February 2019, which underlines how downside risks deriving especially from the international context weigh on the forecasts. "The change in GDP is estimated at 0,4 percent on average this year, while in 2020 it would increase to 0,8 percent, an estimate that does not incorporate the activation of the VAT clauses", reads the document.
The Monetary Fund is explicit: "Italy is slowing down also due to the greater uncertainties in terms of internal politics" reads the 'Article IV' report, released after the end of the mission in Italy, which closed on 25 January. Washington analysts refer to the architrave measures of the Lega and Cinque Stelle maneuver, i.e. the changes to the Fornero pension reform replaced by 'Quota 100', the flag of the Carroccio, and the basic income dear to the grillini. In summary, “the slowdown in growth in the euro area and greater internal political uncertainties are an obstacle to the economy”.
ILTESORO HAS ALREADY RAISED 17% OF THE FUNDS
With yesterday's placement of the BTP 30 - managed by a consortium made up of Banca IMI, BNP Paribas, Credit Agricole, Deutsche Bank and Goldman Sachs - the amount of paper placed on the plate by Rome since the beginning of the year rises to around 68 billion, the 17,2% of the 400 billion to be placed this year.
During the session, the spread went up to 268 basis points, a level already seen and surpassed at the beginning of the week. On the secondary side, the ten-year BTP was traded at 2,83% (+3 basis points).
BANKS DRAG THE BULL. UNICREDIT SHOW TODAY
The good setting of the banking sector made the rally in Piazza Affari possible. The sector index closed at +2,93%, almost 2 percentage points better than the corresponding European Stoxx. Excellent performance for Unicredit (+4,36%), supported by investor confidence in the results arriving today. Spotlights also on the new 2020-23 strategic plan which will be presented on 3 December in London and on the start of the reorganization of the management team which will be responsible for the new plan right from the start of the planning process.
Ubi (+3,73%) and Intesa (+2,39%) also top the list. Mps did well, closing at +3,17%.
The results of Banco Bpm also arrived in the evening. The institute closed 2018 with a net loss of 59,4 million, after reporting a loss of around 583,96 million in the fourth quarter, due to the increase in coverage for the sale of a portfolio of non-performing loans for 7,4 billion euros. After the gigantic cleanup, the incidence of non-performing loans dropped to 10,8%. During the call with analysts, CEO Giuseppe Castagna said that the bank will continue to reduce the volume of NPL stocks and is not interested in evaluating M&A operations.
Weak Generali, which closed at -0,6% after the UBS downgrade to 'neutral' from 'buy' with the target price going from 16 to 14,5 euros.
ENEL REVENUES ARE COOKING THANKS TO SOUTH AMERICA
Limited discounts for utilities pending yesterday's Enel board meeting. The energy giant closed 2018 with revenues of 75,6 billion euros, up 1,3% from the previous year. Ebitda increased from 15,7 to 16,3 billion euros, an increase of 3,8%. Debts also rose from 37,4 to 41,1 billion euros. On January 21, the share detached an advance on the dividend for each share equal to 0,14 euro, yield 2,6% gross. The consensus estimates that a balance of another €0,14 per share will be paid in July. The dividend on an annual basis recognizes a return of more than 5%.
Astaldi gallops off the main list (+6,35%), benefiting from the rumors about the arrival of the first drafts of the offer from Salini Impregilo +1,48%.
CAIRO HISTORICAL CHALLENGE IN BLACKSTONE
Rcs +4,93%. This morning's Financial Times dedicates a long article to the dispute between the Italian group and the giant Blackstone regarding the sale of the headquarters in via Solferino. The newspaper notes that, if the Court agrees with Urbano Cairo by invalidating the sale decided by the previous management, there will be consequences for the entire Italian business. Cairo replies that the match is much less difficult than the one faced to take the majority of the group.
Other titles also stood out: Technogym +3%, Molmed +3%, Gefran +3%. Lily +5%. Tinexta (+1%) updated the record for the third consecutive session.
