This time Italy avoids downgrading and breathes a sigh of relief: unlike what happened last October with Moody's decision to cut the Italian sovereign debt rating (considering, however, the stable outlook), the rating agency Fitch has decided not to weigh down its judgment on the accounts of the Belpaese and of confirm the BBB rating, while maintaining the negative outlook. However, the BBB rating remains a very low score, just two notches above the so-called junk, i.e. the B series of ratings in which the debtors considered less reliable are relegated.
The assessment is therefore affected, on the one hand, by the very high level of public debt and by the absence of reforms to adjust the deficit, as well as by the still weak quality of bank assets and a too low GDP growth rate, but positive factors (which prevented the "relegation") Fitch cites instead diversified and high value-added economy, with indicators of inequality and human development much higher than those of countries with a similar rating. Also positive, again according to the assessment of the US rating agency, are the "moderate" debt of the private sector, the sustainability of the pension system, the favorable duration of public debt securities (6,7 years on average) and a low of foreign currency debt.
Fitch, in confirming the negative outlook, also revised downwards its economic forecasts for Italy: estimates for 2019 a growth of 0,3% of GDP (from +1,2% expected in August) and 0,6% in 2020. The agency also forecasts an increase in the deficit to 2,3% of GDP in 2019, against the 2% estimated by the Italian government. Of the three main US rating agencies, therefore, Standard & Poor's and Fitch have postponed the rejection, while maintaining a negative opinion, while for Moody's Italy is now one step away from the junk level.
To make comparisons, according to Moody's, Italian debt is less reliable not only than Spain's but also Bulgaria's and is at the level of Romania and Hungary. According to S&P, Italy is worse than Poland, while Fitch considers the sovereign debts of Italy, Portugal and Bulgaria at the same level.
