Stock markets in the red, upward tensions for the dollar, flames on oil. This is how the financial week presents itself, under the pressure of many shocks, only partially foreseen, harbingers of possible, profound changes for the markets.
The golden detention of 12 Saudi princes continues, including the multi-billionaire Al Walid (50th world heritage, linked to Trump) in a five-star hotel in Riyadh. The Saudi crown prince Mohammed Bin Salman, a few weeks before the OPEC summit on production quotas, has decided to unleash an anti-corruption campaign to dismantle resistance to his plans to reform Saudi society.
The reaction of oil was immediate. This morning Brent is trading at around 62,30 dollars, the highest since July 2015. Wti at 55,81. According to experts, Riyadh is aiming for an appreciation in the price of crude oil to support the upcoming IPO of Aramco, the Saudi oil company.
Declining Asian markets and recovering dollar at the start of Donald Trump's Asian mission to Japan today, from which he issued a new, threatening warning to North Korea, but also reiterated the need to correct the US trade deficit with Tokyo and the South Korea. It is probable that the US president, after visiting his ally South Korea and Chinese leader Xi Jingping, will meet with Vladimir Putin in Vietnam.
DEBT ALARM IN CHINA WAITING FOR TRUMP
The Nikkei index in Tokyo was weak but still close to its highs this morning, affected by the drop in Softbank after the halt in negotiations for a merger between the American subsidiary Sprint and T Mobil. Down Seoul (-0,5%) and Sydney. The worst price list is Hong Kong. In a very long article published on the website of the People's Bank of China, Governor Zhang Xiaochuan warns that lending leverage is becoming excessive in many areas of the Chinese economy.
The dollar rose to a four-month high against the euro and yen after the labor market data released on Friday. Emerging currencies suffer. In addition to the prospect of a rise in US interest rates, there is the prospect of the restructuring of Venezuela's debt (89 billion dollars), promoted by Maduro. The South African rand (-2,9% on Friday) and the Turkish lira (-1,9% over the weekend) were particularly under pressure. The ruble and the Brazilian real were also down (-1,5%).
TAX, THE PARADISE PAPERS INCUSE VIPS
Here come the Paradise Papers, i.e. the papers collected by a pool of major international newspapers on a gigantic network of offshore operations coordinated by a Bermuda law firm, Appleby. Two prominent names in the US administration are involved, billionaire Wilbur Ross and Secretary of State Rex Tillerson, but also Queen Elizabeth II and U2 leader Bono Vox, as well as multinationals, Russian and Canadian businessmen.
BRUSSELS DECIDES ON PUIDGEMONT. PMI DATA COMING SOON
The European scene is no less agitated. The spotlight on Brussels: the fate of Carles Puidgemont is in the hands of the Belgian judiciary. The former president of the Generalitat and four former ministers of Catalonia surrendered to the federal police before being released on bail. Within today the investigating judge will decide on their arrest.
On the economic-financial front, attention is growing for what the Financial Times has defined as "the positive surprise of 2017": the growth of the Eurozone economy. This morning the PMI indices should confirm the brilliant trend of the economy, starting from Italy.
Today the Eurogroup is meeting in Brussels which, among other things, will take stock of the negotiations with the United Kingdom, in view of the resumption of meetings between Michel Barnier, the EU negotiator, and the British David Davis. But the Banking Union will be at the center of the talks. Mario Draghi will be present.
THURSDAY NEW HEARING FOR BANKITALIA AND CONSOB
The Italian political scene will be dominated by the analysis of the vote in Sicily. The start of the government/union debate on pensions is scheduled. The hearings on the budget law begin in the Senate. The Minister of the Economy, Pier Carlo Padoan, will close on Tuesday at 20pm. The deadline for presenting the amendments is set for Friday 10 November at 12pm.
On Thursday, the bicameral commission of inquiry will return to hear the head of the Bank of Italy's banking and financial supervision department, Carmelo Barbagallo, and the director general of Consob, Angelo Apponi, "to explore relations between the two institutions with reference to banks come”. The November Treasury auctions kick off on Friday with the offer of the Bots.
THE ELITE PROGRAM IS STARTING. TODAY THE PIRELLI AND SNAM ACCOUNTS
Stock markets reopen after yet another week of bullishness. In Piazza Affari the week ended with a positive balance: +1,2%.
The new edition of the Elite program kicks off this morning in Piazza Affari: 34 companies will begin their training to achieve a financial dimension more suited to the challenge of the markets. With this in mind, Luca Peyrano, CEO of Elite, has launched the Basket bonds, i.e. bonds for a series of small and medium-sized companies.
The corporate agenda today includes the quarterly accounts of numerous companies.
Above all, Pirelli stands out. The company announced Friday that JP Morgan, in charge of stabilizing the stock in the IPO phase, exercised the partial greenshoe option granted by Marco Polo International Italy. Thus, 3,1% of the capital returns to the hands of the controlling shareholder (with a Chinese majority).
The Boards of Directors of: Saras, Snam and Tod's also meet (only on sales). Also scheduled are the top management of Italmobiliare, Molmed, Risanamento and Valsoia.
RAIN OF QUARTERLY REPORTS ON THE MARKET PLACE
Numerous corporate appointments of the week. Tomorrow it will be Mediaset's turn. Enel will give the accounts on Wednesday, the next day it will be the turn of Poste Italiane, Generali and Leonardo. Atlantia's quarterly will be released on Friday.
The parade of the quarterly reports of the banks also begins from tomorrow. It will start on Tuesday with Intesa Sanpaolo and Mps, continuing on Wednesday with Unicredit and Banca Generali. The accounts of Ubi and Banco Bpm are expected on Thursday. Danieli's coupon is detached today: 0,1 euro for the ordinary, 0,1207 for the savings.
The market reaction to the decision of the EU Antitrust to suspend the investigation into the 54 billion dollar merger between Essilor and Luxottica after the companies did not provide some requested data should be followed in Piazza Affari.
Modest changes for the other European stock markets, with the exception of Madrid, where the Ibex index loses 1%. To follow today the accounts of Burberry, the leader of English luxury now led by Marco Gobbetti. The Allianz accounts will arrive on Friday.
On Wall Street, the Dow Jones index achieved yet another record. Little moved S&P 500 and Nasdaq. The quarterly reports of 50 companies of the S&P 500 index are scheduled for the week. Once the parade of technological stocks has finished, it is now the turn of trade, grappling with pressure from Amazon. Macy's and Nordstrom bills are expected. Also coming are quarterly reports from Walt Disney, Coach and generic pharma maker Mylan.
To follow the offer of over 100 billion dollars that Broadcom is about to launch on Qualcomm, the most demanding operation in the history of the chip industry.
