It was the mid-August of records. The three Wall Street indices set new all-time highs supported by a robust rally in oil. Interest rates continue to fall towards all-time lows, to the desperation of the banks but to the delight of those who bet on Brexit. For example, those who chose the General Electric bond in pounds, issued at 100 in 2009, jumped yesterday to a price of 215,5 (compared to 180 in January).
An unprecedented situation, partly surreal, behind which lies the unease of a large part of the global economy. Japan has joined Italy and France in the unenviable club of zero-growth countries. In the April-June quarter, Tokyo's GDP remained flat, slowing down compared to forecasts (+0,2%) and to the trend of the first three months. Fiscal stimulus, combined with negative rate policy, has proved futile. But Tokyo's lesson does not impress the markets that are increasingly convinced that the only medicine to cure the effects, if not the causes, of the weak economic situation consists in massive injections of money.
Here is a summary of the picture awaiting the reopening of Piazza Affari:
BUFFETT BETS 1,5 BILLION ON APPLE
– New triple record for the US Stock Exchanges: the Dow Jones index rose by 0.32%, S&P500 by 0,28% (+7,2% since the beginning of the year). The Nasdaq +0,56% closed at 5262,02.
Warren Buffett's stake in Apple grows by 55%. Berkshire Hathaway now owns 15 million Apple shares worth $1,46 billion. A choice in contrast with George Soros and Carl Icahn, who instead reduced their holdings in Apple.
– Asian stock exchanges are down this morning, still sailing at the highest levels for the year. Tokyo falls by around 1%, Hong Kong -0.7% despite the exploits of H-shares, linked to Chinese stocks. Shanghai drops by 0,3%, close to yesterday's highs (+3,3%)), driven by the expectation of new measures to relaunch the economy. They also fly into emerging markets. Brazil in the lead (at its highest since 2014), driven by the drop in interest rates and the rise in crude oil.
– The boost is provided by the oil boom. Quotations have risen by 10% in the last three days, this morning Brent, despite a slight correction, is still trading above 48 dollars, thanks also to statements by Russian Energy Minister Alexander Novak who said he was ready to favor an agreement on prices with Saudi Arabia. The occasion could be the informal meeting of OPEC and non-OPEC producers scheduled in Algeria for 26-27 September.
FLAT BAGS. MILAN ATTEMPTS TO GET BEYOND 17 THOUSAND POINTS
The price lists of the Old Continent were practically unchanged yesterday, with the exception of London +0.36%. A slightly decreasing opening is expected this morning in both Frankfurt and Paris.
Meanwhile, the debate on pension reform has heated up in Germany. The Bundesbank considers the government's bill that raises the bar to 67 years to be insufficient. For the central bank it is necessary to raise the ceiling to 69 years.
– The week opened in Europe with further declines for the pound (below 1,15 against the dollar) and for UK gilt yields (the 0,53-year trades at 1,39% against 0,16% pre-Brexit) , the German Bund (-0.91%) and the Spanish ten-year bond (XNUMX%).
– On Friday, Piazza Affari closed in substantial parity: -0.17%, the Ftse Mib index at 16.997 points. The short week of Piazza Affari will be conditioned by the technical deadlines. The option contracts on stocks and indices expiring in August expire on Friday.
IN THE WEEK THE MINUTES OF THE FED. THE GERMAN ZEW INDEX TODAY
The key appointment of the week will be the publication, scheduled for tomorrow evening, of the minutes of the last meeting of the Fed, a precious indication for guessing the next moves of the central bank on the interest rate front. In reality, the market, which does not believe in an increase in the cost of money in September in the midst of the US electoral campaign, awaits the speech that Janet Yellen will give on August 26 in Jackson Hole in the traditional meeting of the big central bankers.
Among the macro data of the day, July US inflation stands out.
On the corporate front, the quarterly season is drawing to a close. Among the Big names, only Walmart is missing, the large-scale distribution giant that has just launched the challenge to Amazon with the purchase of Jet.com (3,3 billion). Warren Buffett, after ten years, has significantly reduced his stake in the company.
In Europe, in addition to the publication of the Zew index, all eyes are focused on the publication on Great Britain's inflation, the first sensitive data that the country will disclose after Brexit.
MPS, COOP ASKS FOR 137 MILLION DAMAGES
Few news in sight, at least on paper, for Piazza Affari. As usual, the banking issue will dominate the price list.
In the spotlight Mps, after the launch by Popolare di Bari of the first securitization of non-performing loans that uses the Gacs tool, a model which will inspire the operation conducted in Siena by Atlante 2.
Meanwhile, the institute's half-yearly report shows that Coop Central Italy has asked for a total of 137 million in damages "assuming the falsity of the prospectuses" of the 2008, 2011 and 2014 capital increases in which it had participated as a shareholder.
