The Milan Stock Exchange closed an interlocutory session: once the ever-alive worries about the Greek tragedy were shelved for a few hours, European lists remained cautious, pending the Federal Reserve's decision on rates. Movements in stocks remained modest (closing of the Ftse/Mib index at 19.960, -0,44%).
Eventually the news came: the Federal Bank, as expected, left rates unchanged. He also announced that next week he will carry out the last tranche of the 600 billion T-bond purchases envisaged by the economic stimulus programme. Then, after three years of interventions to relaunch the economy, the purchases will be suspended, without however starting the absorption of the liquidity injected into the system.
“The economic recovery is proceeding – reads the note from the Fed – even if at a slower pace than we expected. The FOMC expects the growth rate to accelerate in the coming quarters and that, in parallel, the unemployment rate may decrease”.
For these reasons, the FOMC unanimously voted to keep interest rates close to zero "for an extended period."
But the real appointment is for 20 pm, when President Ben Bernanke will hold the press conference, according to the recent habit adopted by the Fed on the basis of the ECB model: here the central banker will give indications on the strategies he intends to adopt after the of quantitative easing. However, the tug of war on the federal deficit will weigh on Bernanke's orientation: from the end of July, the Treasury Department will stop financing government spending if Congress and the United States House have not voted in the meantime to raise the level maximum debt at $15 trillion.
EL-ERIAN (PIMCO): GREECE, SECURE DEFAULT IN 3 YEARS
THE BTP/BUND GAP WIDES AGAIN
The relief for the narrowly voted confidence in George Papandreou in the Athens Parliament was short-lived: the Financial Times underlines its disappointment at the attitude of the conservative leader Samaras, who declared himself against converging the votes on the austerity package to be presented by the government. The effect of the prophecy of Mohammad El Erian, the bond manager of Pimco (the largest global operator in the sector) who declared that he would take Athens' default within three years for granted, was heavier on the lists.
Given these moods, it is no wonder that the euro's rebound in the morning soon deflated. The single currency fell against the dollar to 1,437 from 1,441 yesterday evening and against the Swiss franc, down to 1,2108 from 1,2113 yesterday evening. On the government bond market, the spread between the German Bund and our ten-year BTP widens again, rising to 191 basis points from 185 points at mid-morning.
FONSAI FALLING, WAITING FOR THE DISCOUNT
UNICREDIT-FINECO CUSTOMERS INCREASE
A "black" eve for Fonsai, awaiting the conditions of the capital increase and the attitude of the Authorities on the relationship between the company and the new strong shareholder, Unicredit, which at the end of the increase will have a stake of 6,6 %. The share falls by almost 4% to 4,46 euros on the new historic low (the loss has grown to -30% since the beginning of the year) while operators try to guess the size of the discount for the new shares: the initial request from the consortium the guarantee was for a 50% cut, but it seems that, in the face of resistance from the Ligresti family, it has dropped to 30 or so.
There are no doubts about the green light for the operation by Isvap, which in any case has put under the scrutiny, after an inspection carried out in recent months, the activities of the control committee and the operations between related parties. The discussion around the Authority's findings was launched on Monday by the board of directors. The negotiation with the Antitrust was more complicated, to which Fonsai and Unicredit presented a series of proposals to ensure that Unicredit's entry into Fonsai will not lead to an increase in the bank's weight in Mediobanca.
As regards the bank in Piazza Cordusio (-0,13%) the increase in gross operating profits in Italy in the first four months of 2011 (+10%) did not arouse particular attention. Yet, thanks to the contribution of the subsidiary Fineco, the bank recorded a significant increase in the number of customers (+15 thousand). But the negative momentum of the banking sector weighs heavily in this case. Banco Popolare (-1,7%), Ubi (-1%) the usual Bpm (-1,1%) and Montepaschi (-1,5%) fell.
TV, TIMEDIA FLIES AWAITING THE PURCHASING CAMPAIGN
ANALYST REPORTS STILL PUNISH MEDIASET
Black day for Mediaset in the aftermath of the resolution of the Board of Directors on stock options 2011/14 for 51 of the broadcaster's executives and journalists. The English bank Barclays lowered the rating to "equal weight" from "overweight" (overweight in the portfolio), simultaneously cutting the target price to 4,10 euros from 5,10 euros. The Barclays note states that Mediaset is suffering from a worsening of the advertising market in Italy, while the performance of its activities in Spain is "weak".
Société Générale also lowered its target price today to 3,7 euros from 5,8 euros. Confirmed the “hold” recommendation.
Telecom Italia Media rose 10,42% to 0,232 euros, a downward rally by Mediaset. Behind this leap could be the bet on the strengthening of La7 and on the possibility that the broadcaster wants to launch a real challenge to the Rai-Mediaset duopoly with a large purchase campaign on the "exiles" of Rai Tre.
A SHOCK FROM PORTO TOLLE FOR ENEL (+1,39%)
AUTOGRILL RISES WITH US AIR TRAFFIC
Enel leap forward (+1,39%). Governor Luca Zaia announced yesterday that the Veneto Region is preparing to amend the law establishing the Po Delta Park to '?save?' the coal-fired conversion project of Enel's Porto Tolle plant, stopped by the State Council in recent weeks. In the event of a new positive opinion from the Ministry of the Environment, the reconversion works of the plant could start in a year. The total investment planned by Enel is approximately 2,5 billion euros.
Autogrill's rise continues (+0,39%), thanks to higher traffic in the US airports where the Benetton group company operates. US passenger revenues grew 14,4% in May over the same period a year earlier, the airlines association announced yesterday. In April the increase was 12%. Other data communicated yesterday: miles flown +2,5%, average revenues per mile up by 11,6%.
Revenue growth was sustained on all routes: +14% for domestic traffic +13% for transatlantic flights, +12% for traffic across the Pacific Ocean, +26% for flights to/from the South America.
