“Uncertainties remain high, especially on the development of the Covid-19 pandemic and on the rollout of vaccines, as well as regarding the structural impact of Covid-19 on consumer behaviour”. So OPEC yesterday justified the cut in forecasts on world oil demand: consumption will rise again but less than already estimated (5,9 million barrels per day) and will remain almost ten million barrels lower than in 2019. L he analysis, which serves to curb the appetites of some members of the cartel (see the United Arab Emirates and Iran) who are asking for increases to take advantage of the hoped-for post-Covid 19 recovery, does not apply only to oil, but affects the entire economic situation: the signals of recovery, albeit robust, are not enough to hide the difficulties of the present. The world oscillates between the hopes raised by vaccines, also distributed in New York since yesterday, and a difficult reality, both due to the pandemic and the risk of collapse of the economies. As the central bankers who will meet from today know: the Fed, above all, but also the Bank of England and the Japanese central bank. The markets, little moved, await indications.
TOKYO, BEHIND THE TRAVEL
Asian stock exchanges down this morning. Tokyo's Nikkei loses 0,4%. In Japan, a new wave of positives has prompted the government to freeze the travel and travel incentive plan it announced just a few days ago.
MAXIMUM INFLOW OF LIQUIDITY INTO CHINA
Hong Kong's Hang Seng -0,8%, Shanghai and Shenzhen CSI 300 -0,2%. The data on industrial production and retail sales for November released tonight by the Beijing statistics office are neglected: both are in line with expectations and with the growth rate of September and October.
China's central bank released 950 billion yuan ($145 billion) at a rate of 2,95% overnight, one of the largest single-shot liquidity injections in history.
Seoul's Kospi was down 0,7% and Mumbai's BSE Sensex was down 0,6%.
Wall Street futures are unchanged. Yesterday the US stocks held back after a brilliant start, the S&P500 closed down by 0,4%, fourth session in the negative. Dow Jones -0,6%, Nasdaq advances (+0,6%).
NETFLIX BEATS WALT DISNEY
Sharp downward correction for Walt Disney: analysts have rewarded Netflix (+4%). Tesla +5% waiting for the debut in the S&P index next week.
In the evening, the bipartisan double bill was presented which contains aid and support for a total of just over 900 billion dollars.
BIDEN'S VICTORY CONFIRMED
Confirmation of Joe Biden's victory from the electoral college also arrived: 306 members voted for Biden and 232 for Donald Trump. The president-elect, speaking from his home in Delaware, said it was time to move on and think about defeating the pandemic. Mass vaccinations began yesterday in some US cities.
Brent oil just under fifty dollars. Gold up 0,5% to $1.840 an ounce.
Euro-pound cross at 0,901, little moved, from -0,5% yesterday. Euro dollar at 1,215.
PANETTA (ECB): FROM THE RECOVERY UP TO 3,5 POINTS OF GDP
Banks slow down in the final, on the eve of the dividend decisions of the European authorities. Oil also loses momentum after OPEC cut its growth estimates. Despite the double ballast, the European price lists open the week with an albeit modest plus sign. Merit of the march of vaccines, but also of the lack of fracture on Brexit. But the most convincing explanation concerns the action of the ECB. In this regard, the declarations of the Italian member of the Bank, the executive director Fabio Panetta, should be noted: "All the instruments at our disposal will be used in the event that downside risks materialize, including those deriving from exchange rate dynamics". The Italian member of the ECB board estimates that the Recovery Fund could bring "up to a maximum of 3,5 percentage points of GDP by 2026 to Italy".
MILAN (+0,27%) BRAKES IN THE FINAL
Piazza Affari closed with a gain of 0,27%; at 21.759 points at the lows of the day after reaching a maximum of 21.997 euros.
The most brilliant list was that of Frankfurt (+0,83%) ahead of Paris (+0,37%) thanks to the exploits of the big banks: the governor of the Banque de France said he was in favor of paying the coupons.
London -0,23%: the strengthening of the pound weighs pending developments on the divorce procedure.
SPREAD TO 113, THE TREASURY BUYS BACK 5 BTP
Italian secondary stable at the end of a session dominated by a risk-friendly tone that allows the peripheral card to catch up on part of the gap on the Bund.
Instead, sales on the bund in the wake of optimism about Brexit. The spread slips to 113 points from 116 on Friday. The ten-year BTP trades at 0,511%.
Tomorrow, December 16, a buyback operation intended for specialist operators will take place, in which the Treasury offers to subscribe for 5 bonds between Btp and Ctz maturing between June and November 2021. Financed thanks to the excess cash available in the Treasury account at Bank of Italy, the operation is settled on 18 December.
BANKS IN VOLTAGE: THE ECB DECIDES ON DIVIDENDS
The banks lost strength during the afternoon, also due to these rumors from Reuters on the amount of dividend that the supervisory authorities intend to grant. The European Central Bank will likely decide to allow banks to pay out up to 15% of cumulative 2019-20 earnings as dividends if they can convince the supervisor they can afford to do so. For many banks, the 15% payout translates into a hefty coupon cut.
Last March, the ECB recommended that eurozone banks avoid paying dividends in 2020 to preserve capital in the face of a likely wave of non-performing loans due to the pandemic. One of the sources stressed that banks must demonstrate to supervisors that they have enough capital to distribute the dividend and decisions will be made on a case-by-case basis.
Bper Banca +0,3%, Banco Bpm +1,3%, Mediobanca +0,7%. Intesa Sanpaolo +0,18%.
Unicredit -1,5%, leaves Goldman Sachs' list of favourites.
AZIMUT SUPERSTAR SHOPPES IN THE FOOD FOR ANIMALS
Asset management shines: Fineco +1,16%, Banca Generali +1,65% Anima holding 1+24%. In the sector, Azimut stands out (+2,53%), also a protagonist in shopping: through the vehicle company PI4, it acquired 75% of Dmo Pet Care, a company specializing in the food and pet care sector, under the banner of Treasure Island.
ATLANTIA COLLAPSES: ASPI EVALUATION DOWN
Atlantia collapses (-5,37%), the worst performance on the Ftse Mib, at its lowest since mid-November. The stock was also suspended with a theoretical -5,85%. The thud of the holding is the consequence of the possible cut in Aspi's valuation. The CDP-Blackstone-Macquarie consortium would have lowered the value of Autostrade per l'Italia to 7,5 billion euros from the 8,5-9,5 indicated previously.
FCA SALE, STM READY TO GO SHOPPING
Among industrialists, Fiat Chrysler +1,5%, Cnh Industrial +1,5% and Pirelli +2,9%.
Stm -0,7%. The CEO Jean-Marc Chery in an interview explained that, if necessary to accelerate the development of some products, the company will continue the start-up acquisitions policy in 2021 after the four operations carried out in 2020. and sensors are the candidate sectors with end markets ranging from smartphones to cars.
Vivendi and Tim celebrated the Council of State's decision to annul the Consob resolution which defined the shareholding relationship between the two companies as control: both shares gain, respectively, around 2,69% and 1,40%.
ILO WEAK, ENEL/LEONARDO AXIS ON SECURITY
Weak oil companies: Eni -1,5%, Tenaris -1,3%, Saipem -0,55%. World demand for crude oil will recover in 2021, but will remain below pre-coronavirus levels well into the end of next year, according to the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries.
Snam +1,2%. Enel (+1%) signed a letter of intent with Leonardo (-1,42%) for a strategic collaboration focused on the issues of safety, energy efficiency, satellite communications and electric mobility.
TINEXTA PAYS EMPLOYEES THE "CASH"
Tinexta +6,62%. The company announced that in December the group will pay the gross difference between what its employees received under the FIS (Wage Integration Fund) regime during the Covid-19 emergency period and the entire salary they would have received without measures to deal with the 'emergency. Vola Digital Bros (+8%): Midcap Partners has raised the target price of the stock, bringing it to 28 euros from 23 euros. The Buy judgment has been confirmed.
