The FOMC, the monetary policy arm of the Fed, left interest rates unchanged (between 0 and 0,25%, their level since December 2008) but expressed cautious optimism about the US economy after the slowdown of the first quarter of 2015. Economic activity is expanding moderately”, the speed of job creation “is accelerating” the Fed stated, thus indicating a possible tightening by the end of the year. A tightening, however, that seems destined to be moderate.
“The pace of job growth has picked up while the unemployment rate has remained stable,” he wrote in the press release following the rate decision. The majority of governors continue to see an initial rate hike in 2015. However, Governor Janet Yellen explained speaking at a press conference that "the conditions for raising US rates have not yet been met", noting that "the economic conditions they do not guarantee an increase in rates”, which will depend on the next data. The central bank, explains Yellen, will evaluate the rate hike meeting after meeting and "expects rate hikes only to be gradual", with rates that "could remain below normal levels" for an extended period. Governor Yellen specified that "transitory factors weighed on the economy".
The Fed then revised downwards the growth estimates for the US economy for 2015 to +1,8%-2,0% from the 2,3-2,7% estimated in March. Unemployment is also worsening, which will be slightly higher than anticipated last March. Inflation should remain unchanged at 0,6-0,8%.
For 2016, the American Central Bank forecasts an increase in GDP of between 2,4 and 2,7% against December estimates of 2,3-2,7% and unemployment equal to the previous estimate, between 4,9 and 5,1%
