The Fed does not scare investors and the Central Bank of China waters the markets with liquidity to prevent the Evergrande fire. The stock exchanges thus pass the first autumn test without worries, one of the most delicate passages after the long ride of the price lists. Even if, on closer inspection, the Fed board has sent out a historic signal: the long season of low rates could end as early as the end of 2022, as predicted by the dot plot, i.e. that sheet of paper where bankers, protected by anonymity, they make their predictions: 9 out of 12 members (two more than the last survey) set the first increase to 2022 and three of the nine even think of two increases in a row.
THE FED: RATES WILL ALREADY RISE AT THE END OF 2022
Wall Street, however, prefers to look at the glass half full: the economy is going, underlined the president Jerome Powell, the risks (inflation in the lead) are under control, as is the Delta variant. And so the tapering will kick off after the November 2/3 meeting, but only in a light form. That's why the US markets have maintained the gains of the first part of the session even after the words of Powell.
THE BANK OF CHINA MOVES, THE CHINESE SQUARES ACROSS
The markets' attention shifts again to the Chinese front, where only tonight will it be known whether Evergrande has honored the interest on the bonds sold on international markets or, as is more likely, a phase (one month) of negotiations will begin to defuse the effects of a possible crack at Lehman Brothers. “We won't have anything like this – Powell said in this regard – The US banks don't have large exposures, the Chinese ones are able to manage the situation. But a default, of course, would weigh on market sentiment."
This morning the Chinese stock markets offer an optimistic picture. The Hong Kong stock market is up 0,7%: Evergrande, which has paid interest on a domestic bond, gains 10%, the first sign of recovery after a catastrophic series of seven consecutive sessions of declines.
The same rise for the Csi 300 index of Shanghai and Shenzhen. Tonight the Central Bank returned to inject liquidity: in two days it introduced 230 billion yuan, about 35 billion dollars. Today it will be known whether Evergrande will pay the 83 million coupons on its bond in dollars.
STILL ON MUMBAI, DOWN THE KOSPI, TOKYO CLOSED
Japan's stock market is closed for holidays, Seoul's Kospi loses 0,5%, Sydney's S&P ASX is up 0,9%, Mumbai's BSE Sensex 0,8%.
WALL STREET STARTS AGAIN, THUD OF FEDEX
Wall Street futures go up this morning, yesterday the S&P 500 interrupted the negative mini-series of five sessions, closing up 1%. Similar increases also for Dow Jones and Nasdaq.
The cost increase was felt on FedEx accounts (-9,1%).
US INFLATION AT 4,2% AT YEAR END. DOWN THE DOLLAR
The Fed raised its inflation estimates by 0,8 points, to 4,2% at the end of 2021, and trimmed those for growth to 5,9% from 7%. In 2022, inflation is expected to return to 2,2 percent.
The euro dollar yesterday closed down by 0,3% to 1,168, but this morning it climbed back to 1,171 (+0,2%). There is talk of a rate hike, but the 1,31-year Treasury Note is moving little, we are at a yield of XNUMX%.
Gold down to 1.764 dollars an ounce, -0,3%, -0,2% yesterday. WTI oil traded at $72,3 a barrel, rising after US crude inventories data.
INDUSTRY TURNOVER AT THE TOP SINCE 2000. MILAN +1,44%
The air of narrow escape (at least momentary) in China, combined with the feeling that the Fed's verdict could turn out to be less severe than feared, has rekindled risk appetite on European markets since morning. And so, while awaiting the words of the Fed president, a positive day passed, marked by a weak dollar and some positive notes. First of all, the rise in the turnover of Italian industry, to an all-time high since 2000: +0,9% on the previous month and +19,1% on the year. The best trend was recorded on the domestic market, while the foreign market decreased slightly.
Milan rose by 1,44% and resumed its march towards 26 points (25.717 points).
THE IFO: GERMAN GROWTH SLOWS DOWN
Paris (+1,29%) and London (+1,47%) were also positive, while the gains were fractional in Amsterdam (+0,78%) and Madrid (+0,6%).
Frankfurt +0,98%. Germany's economic institute Ifo lowered its growth forecast for Europe's largest economy for 2021 as supply chain issues and low availability of chips and other intermediate goods slow recovery from the Covid-19 pandemic . The institute now expects Germany's gross domestic product (GDP) to grow by 2,5 percent this year, or 0,8 percentage points less than previous estimates.
LONDON, FIREWORKS ON BETTING
Big movements in the betting sector. Britain's Entain climbs 7%, to an all-time high, after announcing its proposed $22,4 billion takeover by American DraftKings. Meanwhile, online betting group Flutter Entertainment jumped 4,5% after agreeing to pay $200 million to the Commonwealth of Kentucky to settle a lawsuit it reopened last year.
STEEL RETURNS: ARCELOR MITTAL +4,5%
In Paris, the best stock is Arcelor Mittal, +4,5% on the wave of the recovery in steel prices, which jumped in Singapore beyond the $100 barrier (+15%) from Monday's lows.
BTP RECORD: TREASURY STOP SYNDICATED ISSUES
The BTPs lengthen while awaiting the Fed. The gains can be explained by a preview from Bloomberg: the Treasury, according to the agency, intends not to proceed with syndicated issues in the coming weeks.
The ten-year yield falls to 0,66% in the final. The spread narrows to 98 points.
OIL BURST: TENARIS +5%, ENI +2,9%
In great evidence are the oil sectors, on which the wind of big business from the USA is blowing after the Shell-Conoco operation: Eni rises by 2,9% also supported by the hypothesis of the sale of a stake in Eni Power. Between 13 and 14 September, the six-legged dog purchased 1.005.000 treasury shares at the weighted average price of 10,852 euros per share, for a total value of approximately 10.9 million euros as part of the authorization to purchase of treasury shares.
Tenaris takes off (+5,1%), best title of the day. Saipem +1,5%.
LUXURY COMES BACK TO SMILE. SALES BOOM FOR OVIESSE
Even in Milan as in Paris, the luxury houses are smiling again, relieved by the turn of Chinese events.
Moncler +3,7%. Barclays started coverage of the stock with "equal weight", Tod's (+1,8%) and Salvatore Ferragamo (+0,9%) were also well received, reported underweight by the broker.
Vola Safilo: +8,5% (still the Ferragni effect?). Strappa Ovs (+9,4%) after the results of the second quarter: revenues up 35,4% on the same period of 2020 and 11% higher than those of 2019, before the outbreak of the coronavirus epidemic.
MEDIOLANUM (+1,5%) GREETS ENNIO DORIS
Among the financials Banca Mediolanum rises (+1,48%) on the day of the resignation as president and CEO of the now legendary Ennio Doris. A soft relay that will not affect strategies.
BANKS ARE RUNNING, GENERALI TENDER OFFER FOR CATTOLICA UNDERWAY
Banks are making a decisive recovery, awaiting a possible increase in market rates. Unicredit advances by 3% in line with the sector index, Banco Bpm +2,4%, Intesa Sanpaolo +1,7%.
Focus on Generali (+1,5%) after Delfin rounded its share up to 5,10%. Consob has authorized the publication of the takeover bid prospectus on Cattolica which will run from 4 to 29 October.
ELKANN: TURIN STRATEGIC FOR STELLANTIS
Stellantis recovers (+3,24%) after the exit of Mike Manley. John Elkann, who spoke at Torino tech (today connected by videoconference to Elon Musk), reassured the audience: Turin, he says, remains central to the group's plans.
Nexi is in negative ground, losing 2%. Paolo Bertoluzzo has confirmed his interest in the Greek market.
At the bottom of the Ftse Mib Amplifon loses 0,7% on profit taking after gains of around 5% on the eve.
FINE FOODS (+5,5%) TOWARDS THE PUBLIC OFFER FOR EURO COSMETIC (+8,4%)
A day of strong gains in Piazza Affari for Fine Foods & Pharmaceuticals, which closed the session with a leap of 5,48% after the announcement of the takeover bid on Euro Cosmetic (+8,4%), listed on the Aim. The price of the offer will be equal to 8,6 euros for each share. Positive ratings on Fine Foods by analysts. Banca Akros has raised its recommendation on the stock from accumulated to buy, with a target price of 21,5 euros. Intermonte raises the target to 23 euros from 22.
