The majority of Fed members are in favor of raising rates by the end of the year. But a part of the board, emerges from the minutes of the last meeting, does not hide the doubts generated by inflation which shows no sign of restarting despite the progress in growth and employment.
The nervousness aroused by the "mystery" of prices did not disturb Wall Street operators, already focused on today's Thanksgiving holiday, but the prospect of a more uncertain and softer than expected Fed with regard to the cost of money weighed on bonds (the yield on the two-year T bond fell by five points to 1,727%) and against the dollar, down this morning against the euro to 1,1834.
Even gold, which has risen to 1.290 dollars an ounce, bears witness to the shadow of uncertainty that has tarnished the confidence of the markets after the shower of increases. But the Stock Exchanges will deal with this later, after the long weekend that today also involves Japan, a decisive test for Christmas spending, the real test of consumer confidence.
The spotlights are all on Europe, grappling with non-trivial data: the latest reading of German GDP for the third quarter, the PMI indices of the Eurozone and the minutes of the last meeting of the ECB.
FLAT ASIA, NASDAQ NEW RECORD
Meteo Borsa reports flat calm in Asia this morning, without the contribution of US operators and orphaned by Tokyo. The Asia Pacific index marks a modest progress of 0,15%. Same variation in Hong Kong.
Little Wall Street moved, even if during the session the Nasdaq (+0,07%) has again touched the record to 6.867,36. Slightly down Dow Jones (-0,27%) and S&P 500 (-0,08%).
JOHN DEERE CHARGES CNH INDUSTRIAL
Only telecoms stand out, supported by the change in the rules on Net security: Verizon rises by 2%, AT&T +1,6% is partly consoled by the Antitrust's stop to the merger with Time Warner.
Falling Hewlett Packard (-7,2%): after the disappointing balance sheet data, the CEO Meg Whitman has resigned from next February.
The most positive notes came from John Deere (+4,3%) after the strong increase in profits. The good economic situation of the agricultural machinery giant has infected Cnh Industrial, up .27% after a negative start in Piazza Affari.
STOCKS DOWN, OIL RISES. ENI +0.29%
Oil is up: Brent +0,6% to 62,8 dollars, Wti at 58,02 with an increase of 1,19 dollars. US weekly inventories fell more-than-expected by 1,8 million barrels. At Piazza Affari Eni + 0,29% Saipem -0,34% Tenaris -0,56%.
MARKET PLACE CLOSES IN PAIR, VOLUMES DOWN
Volatile session for the European stock exchanges. Thanks to the already festive climate in the USA, on the eve of Thanksgiving day, the volumes were not particularly significant. In Milan, the Ftse Mib index closed at -0,05%, at 22.315 points, far from the highs of the day. Little moved the Cac40 in Paris (-0,20%).
Sharply down on the Dax30 in Frankfurt, down 1,16% in the face of the political deadlock for the formation of the new government. The Madrid Stock Exchange limits the gain to 0,21%, the best European list, albeit down compared to the +1% in the early afternoon. London was also positive (+0,10%).
CONFIDENCE RISES. THE EU: DON'T TOUCH PENSIONS
Eurozone consumer confidence rose to its highest level in seventeen years in November, according to the European Commission's first estimate. Consumer morale rose to 0,1 from a revised -1,1 in October, above Reuters' average forecast of -0,8. This is the first positive reading of the index since January 2001.
As expected, the European Commission has included Italy among the five countries that risk not complying with the Stability Pact in 2018. Commissioners Valdis Dombrovskis and Pierre Moscovici invite not to touch pensions and insist on an adjustment of 0,3 % of GDP, but do not threaten the infringement procedure for now. We'll talk about it again in the spring. For the Mef, dialogue with the EU will make it possible to avoid new measures.
THE SPREAD IS GOING DOWN AGAIN. ONLY 2 BILLION CTZ ON OFFER
Closing just above parity for the Italian bond market. The 10-year Btp/Bund spread stood at 141 basis points (from 142) at yesterday's close, confirming its lows for just over a year. The Italian 1,764-year rate closed at 1,788% from XNUMX%.
Support for the market came from the buyback operated by the Treasury, which repurchased 5,5 billion euros of five securities with maturities between 2018 and 2021. The restrictive declarations contributed to weighing down the European market, especially the German one. by ECB board member Benoit Coeurè, who said he expected the ECB to lift its commitment to continue quantitative easing until inflation moves towards target.
The Italian Economy Ministry has announced that it will make available between 1,5 and 2 billion euros in CTZ October 2019 in the auction scheduled for Monday 27 November. However, the Btpei auction will not be held given the large availability of cash. The details of the six-monthly Bot auction will be communicated today, while the details of the medium-long term placement scheduled for Wednesday 29 will be provided tomorrow.
EQUITA: THE COLLECTION OF PIR WILL RISE TO 11 BILLION
Meanwhile, the march of the Pir seems unstoppable. Equita Sim, which at the beginning of the year estimated just 1,6 billion in net inflows, has revised its objectives upwards for the second time. In May, the estimate had already risen to 10 billion euros and yesterday the bar was raised to 11 billion. In fact, the revision follows the quarterly update by Assogestioni, which communicated that in the third quarter net inflows amounted to 2,2 billion, for a total since the beginning of the year of over 7,5 billion.
NATIXIS: AT THESE PRICES, LEONARDO IS A BARGAIN
In the spotlight the rebound of Leonardo (+2,6%), the best blue chip in Piazza Affari. For Natixis analysts, the vertical drop in prices is an opportunity to be exploited. The broker has in fact raised the judgment to Buy from Neutral with a target price lowered to 13 euros from 14 euros. The potential upside is around +25%. The group has cut its targets to 2017 in terms of revenues, gross profit and orders, while the third quarter data are well below forecasts.
Despite the disappointing accounts, the Bloomberg consensus records no recommendation to sell. Out of 17 analysts, eight suggest to buy, 9 to hold. The average target is set at €14,0.
INTESA MAKES CASH WITH ALLFUNDS
The banking sector raises its head again with the exception of Creval and Carige, under capital increases. The Eurostoxx index of the sub-fund rose by 0,6%.
The Bigs advance: Unicredit + 1% Understanding +1,8%. The institute headed by Carlo Messina completed the sale of 50% in Allfunds Bank to the funds of Hellman & Friedman, a leading investor in the private equity, and to Gic, the sovereign wealth fund of Singapore, for a cash consideration of approximately 930 million euro. Where's Banca + 0,7% Mediobanca +1,3%. Down Bpm bank (-0,7%).
CARIGE INCREASE KICKS OFF, CREVAL WEAK
In the viewfinder Carige, -6% in starting day of the capital increase which provides for the assignment of 60 new shares at 1 cent for each option right held. The application of new international accounting rules could have “significant” negative effects on the financial results and on the balance sheet. This is what emerges from a summary of the prospectus on the capital increase published by the Genoese bank, which also reports an estimate of around 51,7 million euros, before tax, for the total cost of issuing the new shares.
The non-execution, even partial, of the recapitalization plan, according to Carige's top management, could lead to risks of continuity of the bank's activities. Finally, there is no working capital to guarantee current needs and those of the next 12 months.
Valtellinese credit -2%. For the 700 million capital increase of the Valtellinese bank, contacts are underway to define a guarantee consortium that has already received full support from the main shareholders. In addition to the recapitalization, the bank has announced an industrial plan up to 2020 which provides for the sale of over 2 billion in non-performing loans with the aim of definitively resolving the Npl issue. The leading shareholder is Denis Dumont, with just under 6% of the bank, the only one above the relevant threshold of 3%.
Mount Paschi +1,4%. The Ministry of the Economy has presented a list of twelve names for the new Monte dei Paschi board of directors who will be elected by the assembly on 18 December. The leaders are the president Alessandro Falciai which will then be proposed to the assembly for appointment as chairman.
ENEL BRAKES AFTER THE HIGHESTS. TELECOM RECOVERY
On the title Enel (-0,93%) sales prevailed at the end of the session, after +2,6% on the eve. The correction started close to the highs of the last eight years (5,44 euros). However, the brokers rewarded the objectives of the new industrial plan. Banca Imi confirmed the Add recommendation (increase) bringing the target to 5,80 euro from 5,70 euro. Kepler confirmed the Buy, raising the target to 6,0 euros from 5,80 euros. Buy also for Goldman Sachs (target at 6,20 euros from 6,10). Mediobanca confirmed the Hold opinion, raising the target to 5,50 euro from 4,30 euro.
Telecom Italy +1,3%. Mediobanca Securities confirmed the outperform recommendation and the target price at 1,3 euro. The CEO of the group, Amos Genish, declared that he is "in full collaboration with the Government regarding the implementation of the golden power". The CEO further stated: “We are open to collaborating with anyone to help us build the backbone that is needed in the country which is made up of fiber, 5g, software, applications and b2b”.
NEW ORDERS, OXYGEN FOR ASTALDI
Outside the main basket has taken flight Astaldi (+12,7%). After the rumors about the possible entry of a new shareholder, the stock accelerated further on the news of the new orders. The group has in fact been awarded three new construction contracts, for approximately 400 million euros in equity, relating to projects in Chile, Poland and Honduras.
