SUPER DOLLAR DESPITE “DOVES” FED
TOKYO OK, EUROPE FEARS THE SCOTTISH SHOWER
The Fed confirmed the "soft" policy, but the markets remain convinced that the change of course is now near and that it will be less "soft" than hitherto expected. The most immediate reaction to Janet Yellen's press conference was therefore the resumption of purchases on the dollar, which jumped to 108,69 against the yen (a six-and-a-half-year high) and, above all, to 1,2834 against the euro, a new low for 14 months. The Tokyo Stock Exchange is fully recovering, this morning gaining 1,7%. Wall Street's response was much less moved: Dow Jones +0,15%, S&P 500 +0,1% and Nasdaq +0,21%. Few reactions on the Bond front, practically unchanged. But over the two-year period, the gap with respect to German Bunds, in negative territory, rose to 63 bp, an all-time high.
BUSINESS PLACE AT THE TOP OF THE EU LISTS
With the Fed chapter archived, the markets, especially in Europe, are destined to experience a day of tension awaiting the outcome of the referendum in Scotland. London closed yesterday down 0,1% despite polls favoring no. However, the margin of uncertainty remains high, given the large number of undecided people (and a certain reluctance of those interviewed to reveal their Yes). The Paris Stock Exchange rose by 0,5%, Frankfurt +0,3%, Madrid +1%. More uncertain is London, which closed down by 0,1% despite the polls in favor of no. Piazza Affari, pending the decisions of the Federal Reserve, achieved the best performance among the stock exchanges of the Old Continent. The Ftse Mib index gained 1,55% to 21112 points. The spread between the BTP and the Bund closed at 142 basis points and the domestic 2,43-year yield settled at XNUMX%
FED: RATES WILL RISE MORE THAN EXPECTED IN 2015
Fed policy does not change. The central bank has reduced QE by another 10 billion and is preparing to close it in a month but, underlined Janet Yellen in the press conference, "the launch of the exit strategy absolutely does not mean a change of octa of our policy". Therefore, rates remain fixed between 0 and 0,25%, and will remain so for a "considerable period". The economy, added the president, is improving but at a moderate rate and inflation growth remains under control. "But there are - he added - too many Americans looking for a job they can't find, too many forced to work part-time when they would like a full-time job and too many who are not looking for a job but would if the job market were stronger". Therefore, the appointment with the rise in the cost of money remains set for mid-next year. But the increase will be more robust than hitherto expected: the Fed sees Fed funds at 2015% in 1,375 (against the previous 1,125%. Too little to convince the hawks: they voted against in the Fomc Charles Plosser of Philadelphia and, for the first time, Richard Fisher of Dallas.
BANKS IN RALLY BEFORE ECB LOANS. MEDIOBANCA CELEBRATES THE COUPON
Financial stocks in great evidence yesterday on the eve of the first ECB Tltro loan. According to the Minister of Economy and Finance, Pier Carlo Padoan, the Italian banks will make requests for around 37 billion euros. “In my opinion, the request will be patchy. Maybe some will ask for nothing and others between 4-6 billion,” he said.
The titles most sacrificed in the last few sessions leap upwards: Banco Popolare e Ubi mark gains of over 3%, Victor Massiah, managing director of the Lombard institute confirmed that the bank will request 3 billion at the next Tltro auctions.
Pop.Milan + 2,7%. Mount Paschi it closed up by about one percentage point at 1,080 euros. During the session it had slipped to 1,057 euros. The reshuffle in the Board of Directors of the Sienese bank to make room for the representatives of the new South American shareholders, Fintech and Btg Pactal, could take place in October.
Mediobanca rises by 2,7% after the results of the 2013-14 financial year which coincided with the return to the dividend. Net income is 465 million euros, the best figure since the bankruptcy of Lehman Brothers in September 2008 (but below estimates of 486 million). Shareholders will thus be offered the distribution of a dividend of 0,15 euro per share (pay-out of 27%), after the fasting a year ago, which will be paid from 26 November. Banca Akros analysts had expected a coupon of 0,12 euros per share, while Kepler Cheuvreux had estimated it higher at 0,18 euros per share. The sale of shareholdings for 843,2 million euros contributed to the profits, which allowed capital gains of 242,5 million euros. The disposal campaign is destined to continue: by June 2015 the shares in Rcs and Telco-Telecom will be zeroed.
Unicredit e Understanding advance by 2%. FinecoBank Equita gained 1,46% to 4,18 euros and started hedging with a buy rating and a target price of 5 euros.
Insurance companies also shine: they go up Generali+ 1,7% UnipolSai +2,4% and Cattolica Insurance +2,2%. In managed savings, great recovery for Azimuth which increases by 3,6% and recovers the loss of the day before. Mediolanum + 1,8%.
ENI APPROVES THE INTERIM DIVIDEND, TELECOM DENIES THE FLIRT WITH OI
After Tuesday's rise (+2,4%), oil rose again: Brent at 99,3 dollars a barrel (+0,3%), Wti at 94,8 dollars (unchanged). Take advantage of it Eni rose by 1,28% to 18,97 euros after announcing a new discovery in Ochigufu, in the deep waters of Angola. The field contains about 300 million barrels of oil. Today the board of directors of the six-legged dog will approve the interim dividend, equal to 0,56 euro per share, to be paid on 25 September. Saipem + 0,8%.
Positive all utilities: Enel + 1,2%. A2A + 1,5% Atlantia + 1,7% Enel Green Power + 1,7%.
It bounces Telecom Italy +1,5%. The company has denied the latest episode of the telenovela arriving from Brazil: Tim Brasil is not planning a merger with Oi, an indebted manager who is trying to create a consortium to take over the subsidiary of the Italian company.
Fiatfinally, it advanced by 0,32% to 7,90 euros despite the fact that the data on registrations in August in Europe was once again worse than the market. Against an increase of 1,8% to 701.118 vehicles on the market, in fact, sales of the Lingotto fell on an annual basis by 2,7% to 34.984 vehicles and the market share from 5,2% to 5%. Brilliant Cnh Industrial + 3,6 %
WDF IN FLIGHT: THERE IS A MERGER IN THE AIR AFTER THE RELEASE OF THE CEO
Among the blue chips, the leap of wdf +4,75%, the best performance of the Ftse Mib, after the CEO José Maria Palencia, announced that he will leave the company by the end of the year. The market is betting on possible business combinations that could arise from now on. Meanwhile, Citigroup has confirmed the Buy judgment, reducing the target price to 10,30 euros from the previous 10,60 euros. Similar decision for Deutsche Bank with the target price confirmed, however, at 12 euros. Thanks to yesterday's performance, the stock returned to parity since the beginning of the year.
ADVERTISING BRAKES UP, EDITORIALS RISE
Despite the Nielsen data on the advertising investment market for the month of July (-0,5% compared to the same month in 2013 and -2,2% for the January-July period), the Mediaset +1,78% and Mondadori +1,17%. The exit of the Pesenti family does not hold back Rcs Media Group +4,28%. Caltagirone Editore +1,87%, and L'Espresso +1,77% also rose.
CHINA FREEZES THE LUXURY SECTOR.
The slowdown in China of Richemont watches has frozen European brands. In the second quarter, for the first time. Sales showed zero growth, worse than the cautious forecasts which signaled a modest +0,5%. The entire luxury sector was affected, including the Piazza Affari patrol. Tod’s -0,86% was the worst major basket stock ahead of Salvatore Ferragamo -0,71% and Moncler -0,74%. Yoox attempted a rebound but stalled at +0,28% after the fall on the heels of the disappointing forecasts given by Asos.
