The dollar rose, traded this morning at 1,1720 against the euro, to its highest level since April 5th. But the market's reaction to the surge in US inflation, which jumped to 5,4% well above forecasts, ended there. Wall Street closed modestly lower (S&P 500 -0,35%, Dow -0,32%, Nasdaq -0,38%), bonds recorded modest changes, despite the partial flop of the thirty-year auction. And Asia is showing no signs of tension this morning.
The only surprise comes from New Zealand, where the Central Bank has announced that from next week it will stop buying securities on the market. But that's not a big concern. If anything, the idea is gaining ground that, between the pandemic recovering and the signs of a slower and more tiring recovery than expected, inflation will stop by itself. Or that, in any case, central bank support will be needed for quite a while yet, as Jerome Powell himself could confirm today.
SALT TAIWAN: APPLE IS HUNGRY FOR CHIPS
Flat futures this morning on US and European indices. Tokyo's Nikkei is on track to close 0,2% lower. The negative variation of the Hang Seng of Hong Kong (-0,5%) and of the CSI 300 of the Shanghai and Shenzen price lists (-0,9%) was more extensive.
Only Taipei goes up: +0,2%. In this list, with a high density of high-tech companies, Apple's suppliers stand out above all. Among them, the giant Taiwan Semiconductor, which rose for the third consecutive day the day before the release of the quarter's data. Bloomberg wrote tonight that Apple expects to produce 90 million latest generation iPhones, 20% more than 2020 volumes.
SLOW START TO US QUARTERLY: JP MORGAN -1,5%
Muted debut of the US quarterly: despite higher-than-estimated data, both JP Morgan (-1,5%) and Goldman Sachs (-1,2%) closed lower.
The jump in inflation is largely due to components of a temporary nature such as used cars (+10,5%), hotels, airfares and so on. The feeling is that, despite the increase in the cost of rents, the underlying trend of the economic cycle should weaken due to the structural problem of demography.
For this reason, long and very long-term bonds have almost completely ignored the inflation data: indeed, immediately after publication, the thirty-year yield fell. The yield curve, represented by the spread between the ten-year and the two-year rate, steepened only slightly, and this morning the spread was down again to 114 basis points.
DROUGHT IN BRAZIL SHAKS THE WHEAT
The values of commodities are also depressed: the Bloomberg Commodity index (94,3) is down after four consecutive days of increases. Wheat futures (+39% YTD) are flat this morning after three days of appreciation. The US Department of Agriculture on Monday revised downwards production estimates for Brazil, another of the drought-hit countries.
WTI oil trades at $75 a barrel, down 0,5%, after +1,5% yesterday. Gold at $1.813 an ounce.
EUROPE IN BRAKING: MILAN -0,50%. MADRID -1,4%
American inflation held back European stock markets.
Piazza Affari leaves 0,50% on the ground, falling back to 25.156 points. YTD gain drops to 11,65%.
The worst list is Madrid (-1,4%), weighed down by the losses of BBVA (-2%) and Banco de Santander (-1,8%).
London flat, but credit stocks are healthy after the BoE lifted restrictions on dividend payments set during the pandemic. Banks are now strong enough to support the economy - says the British central bank - and the interim results of the stress test have shown that the sector is "resilient".
VOLKSWAGEN LAUNCHES A 63 BILLION PLAN
Paris (-0,01%) and Frankfurt (+0,01%) also moved little. Alstom still suffers (-4,26%), demoted by Goldman Sachs.
The armed panzer of the car has set in motion: the Volkswagen group has launched a 63 billion plan renamed New Auto, which aims to support and develop the automobile as the main means of individual mobility, which according to CEO Herbert Diess in 2030 it will be electric, autonomous and highly shared.
NOKIA CELEBRATES THE TURNAROUND (+8,57%)
The best stock in Europe is Nokia (+8,57%). After the brilliant results of the second quarter, the Finnish company has raised its targets for 2021.
FRANCO: THE FIRST 25 BILLION FROM THE RECOVERY AT THE END OF JULY
Economy Minister Daniele Franco announced that the first payment of 25 billion to Italy by the European Commission within the framework of Next Generation EU will take place by the end of July and the first part of August, in a single solution. However, at the end of the Ecofin, the minister observes: "The EU's economic forecasts for Italy have proved us wrong for the better", but it is "a rebound compared to the 9 points lost last year, so we must take that into account , there are 4 more left to recover. In the third quarter of next year we will return to pre-crisis growth levels”.
ECB, IT'S ALREADY BATTLE ON THE NEW GUIDANCE
Mario Centeno, a Portuguese member of the board of the ECB, underlined that the European Central Bank will have to exploit as early as July 22 the "room for manoeuvre" it has given itself by updating the guidance on inflation. “It is very important that the guidance is adapted to this new framework, otherwise it will lose credibility,” Centeno said in an interview, adding that “from now on we will have to be patient and tolerant with deviations that we would not have tolerated in the past ”. Interviewed by Financial Times, President Christine Lagarde said the ECB will be "persistent" and not adopt a restrictive policy prematurely.
YIELD AT LOWEST SINCE APRIL, 9 BILLION BTP ALLOTTED
Italian government bonds also do well. On the secondary market, in fact, the yield on the ten-year BTP falls, 0,71%, to its lowest level in three months, and the spread with the Bund narrows to 105 basis points (-2,06%), for some time now moving within a narrow range .
On the primary, the Treasury has auctioned BTPs for 9 billion, with demand exceeding supply.
BANKS SUFFER, UTILITIES ADVANCE
Financials suffer despite the record numbers of quarterly credit in the USA. At the bottom of the ranking is Bper, down 3,4%. Deep red also for Fineco -2,26% and Unicredit -1,7%.
The oil companies are slowing down: Tenaris -2,43%, Saipem -1,24%, Eni -0,89%. "The recent failure of OPEC and its allies to agree on a plan to ease production cuts in August means oil market investors face conflicting concerns of both shortage and oversupply," he said. said the International Energy Agency.
On the other hand, the utilities in Piazza Affari were positive, against the new declines in the bond markets: A2a +1,28%, Terna +0,74%, Snam +0,64%, Italgas +0,43%.
Enel has signed an agreement with Volkswagen for the joint management of over 3 charging points for electric cars.
STM -1,11%. ITALY MARRIES THE BRETON PLAN ON CHIPS
Stm -1,11%. The European Commissioner for the Internal Market and head of the EU task force for vaccines Thierry Breton reiterated in Rome the goal of increasing the global share of microprocessor production within the EU to 20% from the current 10% over the next ten years . An initial allocation of 850 million euros is foreseen in the Pnrr for a silicon carbide chip production plant in the province of Catania, to which must be added the recent inauguration in the presence of Giorgetti of a factory worth 1.6 billion euros in Agrate , in Brianza.
STELLANTIS -1,4%. THE OLD FCA INVESTIGATED IN PARIS
Stellantis falls (-1,44%). FCA Italia is also under investigation in Paris on charges of consumer fraud relating to the sale of diesel vehicles between 2014 and 2017. In deep red Leonardo (-2,7%).
The pink jersey goes to Inwit (+1,45%).
Amplifon moved little (-0,03%). Kepler Cheuvreux analysts confirmed the buy recommendation and the target price at 40,8 euros. The acquisition of Bay Audio, announced on Monday, "will improve the company's positioning in the key Australian market".
MONCLER SHINES, CAMPARI WITH LVMH ON THE WEB
Luxury also did well: Moncler +0,84%. cucinelli +0,1%: +10% revenues in constant currencies in the first half, the prospects for 2021/22 are "excellent".
Campari (+0,22%) set up a joint venture with Moet Hennessy for online sales to which it conferred control of Tannico, the market leader in Italy.
MODADORI AT THE TOP, PROMOTED BY MEDIOBANCA
Mondadori shines (+10,17%) on the wave of the agreement for the purchase of De Agostini Scuola. Mediobanca Securities promoted the stock from neutral to outperform, with the target price rising from 1,9 to 2,6 euro.
On Aim money on Networks (+3,72%) after new agreements for the provision of IT services.
