This time it's not just a figure of speech, financial operators are truly awaiting with bated breath the words that Fed Chairman Jerome Powell will pronounce tonight at the end of the summit which, in the words of David Hauner of Bank of America, "is undoubtedly a one of the most uncertain in recent years”. In fact, the management of the sudden well-being that has invested the financial markets on the eve of the longed-for revival of the economies will be at issue: a word too many on the prospects for the US recovery (certainly on the rise compared to the 4,2% expected in December ) could cause bond yields to skyrocket, one less triggering a rebound in the dollar which could create major problems for the most indebted countries such as Brazil and Turkey which, not surprisingly, are meeting the central banks in the evening. And so even a guru like Ian Hatzius of Goldman Sachs has to admit that he harbors more doubts than certainties. “It is possible – he says – that the Fed will announce that it will not raise rates until mid-2023. But opinions are really divided”.
SLIGHTLY DOWN FOR ASIA AND NASDAQ FUTURES
- This morning the Asia Pacific stock exchanges recorded slight falls: Tokyo's Nikkei -0,2%, Shanghai and Shenzen CSI 300 -0,4%. Sydney's S&P ASX 200 -0,3%.
- Nasdaq futures are down 0,2%. Yesterday evening the Dow Jones closed down by 0,4%, the S&P500 by 0,2%.
- Worth noting are Apple's gains +1,3% after Evercore raised the Apple target. Ford falls -5,4% after the launch of a convertible loan.
THE STEEPEST CURVE SIGNALS THE STRENGTH OF THE US RECOVERY
- The 13-year Treasury Note is at a 1,61-month high this morning, at 2,5% and five-year implied inflation has surpassed 12%, reaching a XNUMX-year high.
- Yesterday evening the Treasury placed 28 billion Treasury Notes with a 20-year maturity, at a rate of 2,29%, two basis points less than the yield indicated at the time of issuance (WI). The share destined for obliged buyers (Primary Dealers) fell to 21%, the lowest point since October, confirming that the market has now become accustomed to the idea that the recovery will push prices upwards, as emerges from the differential between the 147-year yield and of the two-year period rose to XNUMX basis points.
- The macro data did not move much: WTI oil at 65,2 dollars a barrel, up by 0,4%.
Gold barely moved at 1.735 dollars an ounce.
ASTRA ZENECA, TOMORROW THE VERDICT OF THE EMA
Meanwhile, the AstraZeneca issue is holding the table in Europe. In anticipation of the EMA meeting, scheduled for tomorrow, the executive director of the European Medicines Agency, Emer Cooke, said that experts are evaluating possible adverse events linked to the AstraZeneca vaccine. For the moment, you reiterated, "there are no indications" that the cases that have occurred were caused by the inoculations, however it turns out, the embarrassment for the truly mortifying management of the pandemic by the EU remains. But once again the stock exchanges have demonstrated an extraordinary capacity for resistance. Yesterday morning AstraZeneca opened with a 3% increase in the City and then closed slightly lower.
THE CONFIDENCE OF THE GERMANS STOPS THE ASTRAZENECA EFFECT
The chaos around the AstraZeneca vaccine has therefore conditioned the markets of the Old Continent less than feared. The intervention of the EMA has reduced tension because, said the director Emer Cooke, “The benefits of the vaccine continue to outweigh the risks“. On the contrary, the signs of growth in propensity have multiplied. In particular, the Zew, the index which measures the confidence of German companies, rose well beyond expectations: +5,4 points compared to February, to 76,6 points, well above economists' forecasts. In practice, compared to December, the indicator recovered more than 20 points. However, the delays in the fight against the pandemic weigh heavily. Deutsche Bank cuts its 2021 economic growth forecast for the eurozone by one percentage point.
LANE (ECB): LOW RATES WAITING FOR THE ECONOMY TO TAKE FLIGHT
Meanwhile, on the eve of the Fed meeting, Philip Lane, the ECB's chief economist, explains to the Financial Times that the central bank wants to prevent bond yields from taking off before the economy, much less free-range than in the US or China is able to bear higher costs. Hence the decision to accelerate bond purchases for the next three months. And so the euro loses a few shots against the US currency.
MILAN +0,5%, DRAGHI HEARS MACRON
- Piazza Affari closed the session up 0,5% to 24.261 points.
- Prime Minister Mario Draghi described the EMA's statements as "encouraging". Draghi, who had a telephone conversation with Emmanuel Macron on Tuesday, announced that the two leaders "are ready to quickly restart the administration of the AstraZeneca vaccine" if the EMA concludes the analysis positively tomorrow.
ELECTRIC FRANKFURT, VOLKSWAGEN OVERTAKING TESLA
- Frankfurt +0,72% is doing better, driven upwards by Zalando +4,3% but above all by the formidable run of Volkswagen +10%. The Wolfsburg group aims to more than double the deliveries of electric vehicles to 1 million, adding that it will also apply a Standard platform model.
- CEO Herbert Diess's comments come a day after the company unveiled plans to build six battery cell plants and expand EV charging infrastructure around the world, accelerating efforts to surpass Tesla.
ILIAD RUNS IN PARIS, MAXI CUTS IN NOKIA
- Amsterdam +0,71%, Madrid +0,24% and London +0,8% are also progressing.
- In Paris +0,32% Iliad advances +4% with a clear improvement also in Italy.
- Nokia will cut up to 10.000 jobs over the next two years to cut costs and invest more in research capabilities, in a bid to bolster itself against rivals Ericsson and Huawei.
BTP DOWN WAITING FOR EXCHANGES
Btp slightly down in the final compared to the Bund in a market that generally awaits the Fed. The spread between the Italian and German ten-year bonds rises to 95 basis points (+2,02%) and the Btp rate grows slightly to +0,62 ,XNUMX%.
The prospect of today's exchange rate in which the Treasury is offering a maximum of 2,5 billion euros in the April 2031 BTP, coupon 0,90%, repurchasing four bonds (two BTPs, one BTPEI and one CTZ) is also weighing down the Italian bond ) all maturing in 2021. The new 34,5 billion green Oat launched by France has recorded orders of over 7 billion euros.
SUPERSTAR BANKS. FOR BPM AND BPER NEAREST WEDDING
Fireworks in Piazza Affari on the banking sector at a 12-month high.
In the foreground the possible wedding between Banco Bpm +3,74% and Bper +2,21%, after the news that. The president of Bper Pietro Ferrari will not run for a new mandate.
ORCEL EFFECT ON UNICREDIT AND MEDIOBANCA
But the spotlights are concentrated on the first moves of Mario Orcell who in less than a month will rise to the command of Unicredit +2,05%. The market does not believe that the banker's target is Mps +0,85%. On the contrary, the path of an alliance with Leonardo Del Vecchio is taking shape who, as the Economist writes, is now launched to change Italian finance from top to bottom. Hence a possible Unicredit/Mediobanca axis +1,71% where Del Vecchio already has 13% strengthened by the purchases of his ally Francesco Gaetano Caltagirone. Final goal: control of Generali, also thanks to an agreement with the Benettons.
Intesa Sanpaolo +1,28% and Poste Italiane +2,15% are also highlighted.
MORGAN STANLEY BRAKES ENEL
On the contrary, utilities were weak after the good session on the eve. On Enel +0,7%. Morgan Stanley lowers the judgment to Equal Weight. Target price at 9 euros. Snam -0,8% and Terna -0,7%: Morgan Stanley again starts hedging with Underweight..
The Volkswagen rally does not give the automotive sector a boost: Pirelli -1,29%, Stellantis -0,59%. Profit taking on Exor -1,29%.
RECOVER DIASORIN, GOOD LEONARDO
On the other hand, the recovery phase by Diasorin continues +2,67% and the progress of Inwit +2,5%. Leonardo also did well +0,85%, after yesterday the company published the details of the IPO of the subsidiary Drs.
Sales penalize oil stocks: Saipem, -2,02%.
EL.EN AND REPLY RECORD RESULTS, GEOX SUFFERS
Out of the main basket:
- El.En (+13,33%) celebrates the 2020 results and growth forecasts for 2021.
- REPLIES +7,9%. Mediobanca Securities raised the rating on the company to outperform from neutral with a revised target price of 120 euros (from 114,5 euros).
- GEOX -1,7%, reported an annual net loss of 128,2 million euros from a loss of 24,8 million a year earlier and said sales performance in the first ten weeks of 2021 remains influenced by the lockdown measures in its main European markets.
LA DORIA +1%, closed 2020 with significantly better results than 2019 and significantly higher than expected. Proposed dividend of 50 cents, significantly up on the previous year. - AIM shone NOTORIOUS +2,56%, which has signed a co-production agreement with Amazon Studios.
