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Pharmaceuticals: from Gsk to Novartis, excellent results for companies in the EU but Trump's duties loom. What are the risks?

The pharmaceutical sector is one of the best performing sectors. Sanofi and GSK beat profit expectations, while Novartis and Recordati raised their forecasts. But Trump's axe could push some companies to move to the US

Pharmaceuticals: from Gsk to Novartis, excellent results for companies in the EU but Trump's duties loom. What are the risks?

Le European pharmaceutical companies, while I'm still waiting for the trade policy of US President Donald Trump on imports of pharmaceutical products, are recorded good accounts in the first quarter and investing pre-emptively to expand production capacity.

Last week, President Donald Trump said a “wall” of tariffs would be imposed on pharmaceutical companies operating in the United States within a certain period of time, without giving further details. Pending clarity on the tariffs, the strong demand for drugs for cancer, diabetes, asthma and a number of other drugs has led Sanofi SA and GSK Plc beats profit expectations, while Novartis AG and Recordati have raised their forecasts. The Danish giant Novo Nordisk will publish its quarterly data on May 7th.

But the tariffs are worrying. The application of a 25% tariff on drugs between the United States and other countries could have a huge impact on thepharmaceutical industry global, with 76,6 billion dollars in costs for companies, 2,5 of which are borne by companies operating in Italy alone.

The Efpia (European Federation of Pharmaceutical Industries and Associations) has clearly made its concerns known to the European Union, which include the possibility that European companies can move to the US. “If Europe does not make a rapid and radical change in policy,” the Federation tells Ursula von der Leyen, “pharmaceutical research, development and production will increasingly likely be directed towards the United States.” The reciprocal tariffs that Washington will impose will definitively shift a very precarious balance. Because the United States is already much more attractive than Europe “in every investment parameter, from the availability of capital, to intellectual property, to the speed of approval, to innovation rewards.”

An initial response came from the president of the European Commission, Ursula von der Leyen, who revealed a 500 million investment plan of euros intended to support the scientific research in Europe.

Sanofi grows driven by immunology development

Sanofi posted turnover up 9,7% on a comparable basis at constant exchange rates in the first quarter of 2025, reaching 9.895 million euros, above expectations. The consolidated net operating result (Eps business) stood at 1,79 euros, up 15,7% compared to the same period of 2024. Among the main contributors, Dupixent recorded sales of 3,48 billion euros (+20,3%), confirming itself as a key drug in the development of immunology. Altuviiio, therapy for hemophilia A, reached 251 million euros, doubling its revenues compared to the previous year. The sector vaccines marked +11,4%, driven by Beyfortus, while investments in research and development increased by 6,9%, reaching 1,8 billion euros.

The company has obtained six regulatory approvals in immunology, rare diseases and oncology. The company has also completed 72% of the program share repurchase for 5 billion euros, while the sale of the majority stake in Opella to Cd&R is proceeding. 70% of the current portfolio and over 75% of the pipeline are oriented towards pathologies influenced by climatic factors. The company has 2025 forecasts confirmed, with growth of sales waiting in percentage Medium-High at constant exchange rates and a double-digit increase in business EPS. Hudson (CEO Sanofi): “We started 2025 with strong momentum”.

Gsk: revenue and profits grow in the first quarter

GSK plc recorded a first quarter turnover of £7.516 million up from £7.363 million a year ago. TheNet income was £1.624 million compared to £1.046 million a year ago. Basic earnings per share from continuing operations were £0,397 compared to £0,257 a year ago. Diluted earnings per share from continuing operations were £0,393 compared to £0,254 a year ago.

Novartis raises guidance

Novartis AG also raised its forecast for the year, after the to evaluate beat estimates in the first quarter, led by drugs for breast cancer, multiple sclerosis and psoriasis. Core operating profit will likely grow by a low double-digit percentage and sales by a high single-digit percentage, the Swiss drugmaker said. In January, it had forecast a broader growth range. Novartis also reported core operating profit up 23% last quarter, beating analysts' estimates. They have risen more than 6% this year, outperforming the Bloomberg index that tracks the European pharmaceutical sector. Competitor AstraZeneca Plc left its forecast for the year unchanged.

Novo Nordisk: Quarterly results due May 7

While waiting for the quarterly data, which will be published on May 7, the giant Novo Nordisk does not hide concern. And with it the'entire Danish country. After peaking in June 2024, the shares have lost 58% of their value, losing their place as Europe's most valuable company, mainly due to increasing competitive pressure from Eli Lilly – an American rival that has overtaken Novo in effectiveness in weight-loss treatments – and a general decline in enthusiasm around anti-obesity drugs. Goldman Sachs recently revised downwards its estimates for the obesity market between now and 2030: from 130 to 95 billion dollars. These numbers are still huge, but the 30% reduction has made investors tremble. In 2024, Novo had a turnover of 25,2 billion dollars with Ozempic and Wegovy. Lilly reached 16,5 billion with Mounjaro and Zepbound. According to Danske Bank, half of the growth in Danish GDP It is linked to the pharmaceutical sector, dominated by Novo.

Recordati: three-year plan focuses on rare diseases

In its new three-year plan 2025-2027, Italian Recordati has indicated a turnover of 3-3,2 billion euros, adjusted EBITDA of 1,14-1,225 billion, adjusted net profit of 770/820 million and net debt between 1,8 and 2,4 billion. As expected, rare diseases (sales target of 1,250-1,500 billion) will drive most of the increase in turnover, with an average annual growth rate (CAGR) in the period 2024-2027 of 17%-20% at constant exchange rates, while Specialty & Primary Care will grow by 3,5%-4,5%.

US Pharmaceuticals in Chaos, FDA Recalls Laid-Off Workers

The pharmaceutical sector is also anxious in the US, with manufacturers waiting to hear the new directives of the administration regarding prices and new drugs. As is well known, Trump has focused on the pharmaceutical sector to be able to cut hundreds of billions of dollars in public spending and keep his promise to cut taxes for US citizens. The Trump administration is therefore pressuring manufacturers to lower prices on prescriptions covered by Medicaid. Chaos reigns supreme in this area. The news just came out that the US Food and Drug Administration (FDA) has asked some of its recently laid off employees, responsible for crucial financing negotiations with pharmaceutical companies, to return to work, reports ReutersLast month, the FDA laid off most of its senior negotiators, as well as their project managers.

Health and Human Services Secretary Robert F. Kennedy Jr. ordered the FDA to lay off 3.500 employees as part of a massive shakeup of U.S. health agencies in March. The Department of Health and Human Services (HHS) said 20.000 employees had left the agency following layoffs, buyouts and early retirement offers from Elon Musk's Department of Government Efficiency (DOGE). This is the second time this year that the FDA has asked for laid-off employees to return. It had already rehired some scientists in February after the first wave of layoffs. FDA sources said subsequent mass layoffs in April had begun to undermine the agency's review of new drugs.

About 200 biotech companies also sent a letter to Congress last month expressing concern about the FDA layoffs and calling for several staff members, including user fee negotiators, to be reinstated.

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