La closure of trade in Russia has hit Made in Italy exports, hitting the 130 Italian companies active in the country, for one total loss of 13 billion euros. Only with the closure of brands in the Russian territory, European exports gave up 63 billion euros in luxury goods. The conflict has led to a clear reduction in growth forecasts on a global scale. According to the Confindustria Study Center, the Italian GDP will also see a decrease in growth forecasts, which in 2022 will be equal to only +1,9%.
Setback for the online export of Made in Italy
The online sale of Italian products has been a direct consequence of Russian tourism, since often passionate tourists tend to buy online the products they have known directly on holiday in Italy. Here then is that the setback in the e-commerce sector as far as online export will concern mainly the fashion sector, which in Italy represents 53% of online exports of consumer goods, for a value of approximately 7,1 billion euros. But not only fashion will be affected, too feed e furnishings, which in Italy weigh respectively 14% and 8% on the total value of digital exports of consumer products. Total losses are estimated between 700 and 800 million euros, equal to 5-6% of the total value of digital exports in Italy.
Total Made in Italy exports to Russia and Ukraine
According to the Istat data, export to Russia and Ukraine worth overall 9,8 billion euros, respectively with a share of 7,7 billion for Russia and 2,1 billion for Ukraine, of which almost all concerns the manufacturing sector. In this scenario, the sector ofautomotive it accounts for 4% of goods exported to Kiev, equal to about 91 million, and for 6% of those exported to Russia, equal to over 421 million. As regards the sector of the motor vehicles, trailers and semi-trailers, the sector is worth 86,1 million products exported to Ukraine and 315,7 million to Russia, while sales of other means of transport amount to 105,5 million exports to Russia and 5 million to Ukraine.
The most damaged regions
It should be noted that among the Italian regions most damaged by the war, theEmilia Romagna, with its 114,2 million of goods exported to Russia, followed by the Piemonte with 111,1 millions and from Lazio e Lombardia which see 57,9 and 55,3 million respectively in danger. In particular, Lombardy recorded sales to Ukraine for a value of 38,7 million. Among the major exporters to Kiev we also findAbruzzo, which sees 19,6 million exports compromised, followed by Piedmont with 14,8 million and Emilia-Romagna with 12,6 million.
A focus on the automotive industry
However, the impact of the conflict on the industry automotive it's not just about the sales profile. Also the availability of raw material for procurement represents a serious problem for the entire sector. In fact, it should be considered that Ukraine is in 9th place for steel production and 10th for world exports of car wiring, equal to 3,4% of world production. Russia is instead the 3rd world producer after Indonesia and the Philippines of nickel, essential for electric vehicles, equal to 10% of the total produced globally. The impact for lithium batteries intended for electric cars and, to a lesser extent, for hybrid ones is particularly important: the cost of raw materials has already grown by over +20%.
In light of this scenario, S&P Global Mobility has revised downwards estimates of global automobile production for 2022 and 2023, with -2,6 million vehicles compared to previous estimates this year. Specifically, there will be -1,7 million in 2022 and 480 fewer vehicles produced in the USA in 2022 and -549 in 2023. Overall, in 2022, 81,6 million vehicles will be produced worldwide and 88,5 million in 2023.
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