Despite an initial cyclical slowdown in June (-2,1%), the prospects for theMade in Italy agri-food export remain optimistic, with the trend expected to exceed 60 billion. The wine sales they do not detect any slowdown, +14,2% on 2021 and +21,3% compared to 2019. The unknowns now come from inflation, energy costs e shortage of materials.
The agri-food sector between growth and risks
According to an analysis by Coldiretti, agri-food exports are in good health and the prospects for the current year are optimistic: the data released by Istat, recorded an increase of +20,6% in the first 6 months of this year compared to the same period last year, in line with the overall result of Made in Italy (+21,2%) despite June registering the first cyclical slowdown of -2,1% on the previous month. Coldiretti reports: "If the growth trend is maintained, Italian agri-food exports to the world will exceed 60 billion in 2022, marking a real historical record even if they are the ones to worry about effects of the conflict in Ukraine, with energy price increases affecting consumption globally”.
Germany, USA and France top destinations
La Germany remains the main outlet market with an increase of 14,8% in January-June, ahead of the Use, up by +21,2% while the France is in third place (+20,6%). Positive results also in UK (+22,6%) and in Turkey (+29,3%), negative in China (-26,9%) and in Russia (-17% between sanctions and war effects).
Wine growing, but there is the unknown factor of inflation
In this scenario, in the first five months of 2022 le sales of Italian wine abroad do not detect any slowdown in growth, exceeding 3 billion euros, up by +14,2% over the same period of 2021 and +21,3% compared to 2019. The unknown factor is represented from inflation, which in Italy reached +6,9% in May, with the wine sector facing not only the increase in energy costs, but also the lack of materials such as bottles, caps, labels and cartons. On the one hand, therefore, the direct effects of the Russian war in Ukraine, and its enormous geopolitical consequences, on the other, an economy that still seems to suffer from the slowdowns, delays and stops in China, still grappling with the merciless fight against the Covid-19 pandemic. The most important figure to underline is undoubtedly that of Great Britain, where the recovery is now largely consolidated.
Italian wine is growing again in Germany too
In the detail of the individual countries, the figure of the stands out immediately France: 115,3 million euros, +44% over the first five months of 2021. The Switzerland, at 175,5 million (+4,8%), as well as Austria, which in May imported 51,2 million in wine (+26,7%). After a period of substantial stagnation, Italian wine is also growing again in Italy Germany, where the slowdown in large-scale distribution does not seem to have slowed down overall shipments, which reached 471,7 million (+5,8%). The market is always very lively Belgium, which is worth 90 million (+26%). Very good also i Netherlands, which reached 94,5 million (+12,1%). The most comforting data comes from Britain, which in the first 5 months of this year imported 294 million of Italian wine (+27,2%). Confirmations also come from Northern European countries, starting from Denmark, with 70,7 million of wine exported (+14%), Norway, at 47,3 million (+9%), e Sweden, to 87,5 million (+7,5%).
Bad Russia and China, good Japan
It collapses there Russia, with 32,7 million (-30,9%). It is not the sanctions, which only concern bottles worth more than 300 euros, that curb trade with Moscow, but the economic difficulties and the political opportunity, possibly net of triangulations with other countries. Bad too China, with 48,4 million (-10,3%): the Dragon market is increasingly difficult, and will be even more so in the coming months, with the escalation in Taiwan and the strengthening of the axis between Beijing and Moscow . Other Asian markets also marked a sharp slowdown, with the exception of Japan, up by +17,3%, to 77,7 million. hong Kong loses 10,2%, and stops at 11,4 million, while the South Korea leaves 2,1% on the ground, stopping at 36,3 million. The trend in the USA was in the opposite direction, which in the first 5 months of 2022 imported a good 769,5 million in Italian wine (+12,5%). It doesn't stop either Canada, at 170,5 million (+20,4%).
