Welcome to the Trump era. America is covered by protests and the president goes on the attack of the mass media which, according to him, have deliberately underestimated the participation of supporters at the Inauguration Day party. The financial markets, however, do not hide their enthusiasm. "We have many reasons to be optimistic," James Gorman, CEO of Morgan Stanley, told shareholders. Equally positive Ed Bastian of Delta Airlines: “I think we are taking off. And the course is the right one”.
Meanwhile, the confidence index of small and medium-sized businesses has risen to a 12-year high, while that relating to households does even better: never so high since August 2001. A situation diametrically opposite to the one which, eight years ago, welcomed the start of the presidency of Barack Obama, greeted by a drop of about 20% in the first two months. But now we have to move from promises to deeds. Without neglecting the warning of Christine Lagarde, managing director of the Monetary Fund, before the closure of Davos: "If we end up in a race to the bottom on the fiscal front, international trade and financial regulation, we risk a really big black swan".
DOLLAR AND TOKYO DOWN
Dollar down this morning at the opening of the financial week. The yen advanced, traded just above 113 against the US currency, the euro rose to 1,0748. The renmimbi is also growing. As a consequence, the Tokyo Stock Exchange (+1,1%) loses momentum. Sydney is also down. Chinese Stock Exchanges are up: Hong Kong +0,6%.
The Mexican peso also recovered (+0,7%). Trump reiterated his intention to begin negotiations for the revision of the NAFTA treaty with Mexico and Canada as soon as possible. S&P 500 index futures are down 0,2%.
OIL, PRODUCER CUTS UNDERWAY
Oil consolidates Friday's gains. Brent at 55,6 dollars. The OPEC summit was held yesterday in Vienna to evaluate the progress of the agreement on production cuts. The cartel has already cut, as planned, 1,5 million barrels. The objective of a cut of 1,8 million barrels over the next 6 months has been confirmed. "I am sure that by the end of February - said Saudi minister Al Falih - the 300 barrels envisaged for non-OPEC countries will be added".
Russia cut its oil output by about 100.000 barrels a day while Saudi Arabia, the world's top crude exporter, cut more than 500 barrels. Algeria and Kuwait have reduced production beyond the established target. In a note, the committee explains that the OPEC Secretariat, the executive body of the organization, will present to the Control Committee a report on the monthly production of countries that are part of the cartel and not, on the 17th day of each month.
A hot week is expected for other commodities, starting with copper. Today, in the event of failure of an agreement in extremis, the Chilean mine of Escondida, the most important in the world, controlled by Bhp Billiton, should trigger an indefinite strike.
US GDP, QUARTERLY AND BREXIT IN THE LIGHT
On the macro front, the US GDP data for the last quarter of 2016 is in the spotlight. Growth is expected to slow down to 2,2%, after the 3,5% jump at the end of September. But optimism reigns on the trend of investments and private consumption.
One hundred companies in the S&P 500 basket will announce their results this week. Among these stand out Alphabet (formerly Google) for which analysts expect quarterly profits of 20,9 billion dollars (7,67 dollars per share), Intel, Microsoft, Comcast, Yahoo and Verizon. In addition to Mc Donald's and Starbucks. Even more eagerly awaited the accounts of Ford and Caterpillar.
Meanwhile, Apple is suing Qualcomm for violating the antitrust law with a request for one billion dollars. Apple and Samsung represent about 40% of the chip giant's turnover, in practice the sole supplier for smartphones.
In addition to the first moves of the new US president, the attention of the markets will be concentrated on the British Court of Justice. The judges will have to rule on Prime Minister Theresa May's appeal against the decision to consider the Parliament's vote mandatory to validate the cancellation of article 50 which provides for Great Britain's accession to the European Union. In the event of May's defeat, markets are expecting a sharp (but temporary) surge in the pound. The British premier will meet Trump this week.
Tomorrow the top of the Turkish Central Bank will meet. A rise in rates to support the lira, which has fallen by 20% in the last three months, with heavy repercussions on inflation and corporate debt, cannot be ruled out. But President Erdogan, on the contrary, is pressing for a rate cut that will boost investment.
ADVANCE COUPON FOR ENEL, UNICREDIT GROUPS THE SHARES
Flat weekly balance sheet for Piazza Affari, unchanged. The EuroStoxx50 has lost 0,7% in the last five sessions. Enel's advance dividend (0,09 euro) will be detached today. Also starting today is the grouping of Unicredit shares at the rate of one new share for every ten old shares already owned. Last Friday's closing price was thus adjusted to 26,9 euros. The closing price of Unicredit savings was set at 56,65 euros.
Tonight the Treasury will announce the characteristics of the Ctz and Btpei on offer on Thursday 26, in the first month-end auction. Friday will be the turn of the 6-month Bot offer. Among the corporate accounts, the quarterly FiatChrysler scheduled for next Thursday stands out. The examination of the accounts for Stmicroelectronics is scheduled for the same day.
PARMALAT, CONSOB HOLDS BACK THE LACTALIS TENDER OFFER
Consob stops the Lactalis takeover bid on Parmalat. The commission asked Sofil (Lactalis) for additional information on the voluntary public purchase offer document for all the residual shares of the Emilia-based company already controlled by 87,74% of the capital, ordering the interruption of the preliminary investigations until the completion of the information framework . The requests from the Amber fund regarding "information on the income prospects of the group and more specifically of the companies acquired in the last three years" were thus accepted.
As regards the share price, the representative of the Amber fund highlighted that "the price of the tender offer is not adequate because it does not reflect the intrinsic value of Parmalat". To reach the delisting threshold, Sofil will have to acquire at least 2,76% of the existing capital.
MEDIASET, ALSO THE MONDADORI CARD IN THE WAR WITH VIVENDI
Great maneuvers on the Mediaset front. Pier Silvio Berlusconi reiterated that the Alfa group relies above all on the legal battle to stop Vivendi's pressure and obtain the freezing of the 29,9% voting rights held by Vincent Bolloré. But, after the recent gains on the Segrate stock market (+23% since the beginning of the year, +57,4% since the beginning of December) the hypothesis of a merger between Mondadori and Mediaset to strengthen the position of Fininvest is emerging. In reality, the numbers do not support this solution for now: in the new company Fininvest would have only 40,5% against the 27,7% of the inconvenient transalpine partner. Vivendi, for its part, has made it known that it could resume negotiations with Mediaset if the Italian group renounces legal action.
