"There is no recovery without growth, there is no wealth without industry, Obama understood this and won". For Giacomo Vaciago, the crux of the US President's electoral success and the future of the West lies in a classic economic recipe. With FIRSTonline the economist comments on the tiring but important victory of the 44th US president and his effects on the world economy.
FIRSTonline – Professor Vaciago Barack Obama made it despite the crisis, how can we interpret this result?
It's true, Obama is an exception on the world scene: from Sarkozy to Gordon Brown to Zapatero, no European leader has survived this economic phase in the last five years. Evidently Americans do not identify their president with the crisis. This also bodes well for Angela Merkel.
FIRSTonline – Because we hope that Merkel will be confirmed…
I would say yes, given that he is capable of dragging the Germans with him, of increasing VAT by 3 points and of investing in industry. His choices that should make François Hollande reflect. Something that Barack Obama understood, convinced the State of Ohio and even promoted Marchionne. A tiring but very deserved victory. Woe if we had met Mitt Romney in the White House today, he would have spent the first 2 years destroying what Obama had built, then figuring out what he had to do, then starting again for an electoral campaign. A lot of time would have been wasted.
FIRSTonline – What are the first problems that the President will face?
The problem of the United States, like that of Italy, is growth. In a sense Romney was right: America must be careful not to become Italy, but not for what he claimed, because public spending is good if it is productive. We need to start again from a large industrial country, this has a future ahead of it, it gives hope even to the least, who today can even aspire to the White House. Cawboy stereotypes no longer work and finance offers no real prospects for wealth. Romney remained a boy from the Cayman Islands, with easy and equally ephemeral money. Obama, on the other hand, has shown that he is looking at reality more deeply, as Hollande should do as soon as possible and as Bersani will hopefully have to do in a year's time. The left in the world is moving in this direction, perhaps driven by a sort of upside-down Marxism. Let us always remember that industry causes wealth, to quote Adam Smith. Obama understood that he must leverage the strength of universities, where the best from all over the world study, not just American kids. A bit like in Florence, not that of Renzi though, that of the 400th century.
FIRSTonline – How much does the unknown Fiscal Cliff weigh?
Without growth there is inevitably failure. It is therefore necessary to reduce unnecessary expenses and consolidate the debt. It takes at least 10-15 years for a huge debt like the US one, especially since Americans are not savers, so that debt is in the wallet of the world and it's very scary. The Fiscal Cliff looks like our spread, because of which we were on the brink a year ago. The US, like Italy, must do more for the sustainability of its debt. Thanks to Bernake, they have bought time in recent years, but now Obama is in his second term, he has no electoral deadlines in front of him and must act with determination.
FIRSTonline – How will US-Europe relations evolve?
The United States and the Union must team up. The Americans need to go to Beijing a little less, because they can't only talk to their creditors. They should go back to their origins, to Europe, we need a peaceful NATO that keeps Brussels and Washington together.
FIRSTonline – Can we also dream that the best is yet to come?
We need to be up to the tasks facing us, we need to reduce the weight of finance, the drunkenness of the 90s and the miracles it promised, roll up our sleeves and connect our brains to our arms. Will we make it after that? Yes, we can.
