Sunday 31 May they are called to the polls 17 million Italians between Regional and Administrative, over a third of the Italian electorate. Although it is not a national vote, it represents a test of a certain importance, as demonstrated by the more or less recent past: Massimo D'Alema, in 2000, resigned as Prime Minister precisely following a defeat in the Regionals held in spring. However, Renzi's Pd does not fear such a debacle and indeed hopes to replicate the success of the European elections: in the 7 Regions in which the vote is taken, the Pd is ahead in at least 6 cases (all excluding Veneto), even if in Liguria, Campania and Umbria is undergoing a dangerous comeback from the centre-right. You also vote in 1.062 municipalities, including 18 provincial capitals.
A clear winner, according to all polls, will be in any case the abstention party: some even fear a historic flop, with more than half of the voters intending to desert the polls. The choice of 31 May in this sense does not help (the heat is coming and there is a bridge with 2 June) and the data from the last European elections (41% of abstentions), which took place in this period a year ago, and from The regional elections in November (the Emilian one was sensational, with a turnout below 40%) represent an alarming trend, even if the majority party was able to win easily by counting on the weaknesses of its opponents. As regards the seven Regions voting, here are the precedents of participation: in 2010 66,4% voted in Veneto, 60,9% in Liguria, 60,7 in Tuscany, 65,3 in Umbria, 62,7 .62,9 in the Marches, 63,1 in Campania, 63,1 in Puglia. The average was XNUMX%, this time even lower is expected in some cases.
While North the League should confirm itself in Veneto and the Democratic Party risks something in Liguria (thanks to the competition from the Civatian candidate), and in the Center Renzi is aiming for a 3-0 which, however, may not be so obvious, in the South the battle is more open than ever: not so much in Puglia, where the former mayor of Bari Michele Emiliano should win without problems, as in Campania, where after the conviction in the first instance for the former mayor of Salerno Vincenzo De Luca and the controversy over the "unpresentables" included in some lists that support it, the Democratic Party must not underestimate the comeback attempts of the centre-right.
CAMPANIA
Findings in and around Naples are considered uncertain. However, the favorite is De Luca, who however has lost support in the latest polls, thanks to the conviction in the first instance for abuse of office, for which the possible sword of Damocles of the Severino law hangs over him. Just yesterday he intervened in this regard the president of the National Anti-Corruption Authority, Raffaele Cantone, recalling that “the Severino law is very useful and our goal is to defend it, and it is substantially clear in its contents: when and if De Luca is elected, the Prime Minister will make his assessments ". The question was also addressed minister of reforms, Mary Helen Woods, specifying that the sentence of the Cassation (which established that the ordinary judge and not the TAR has jurisdiction over convicted politicians, ed.) "simply says that it is the ordinary judge and not the administrative one who has to decide, but does not change the application of the Severino law, according to which De Luca is a candidate and eligible". “De Luca – Boschi added – was chosen by the Campania region in the primaries, and the Campania region will also choose him as president of the Region”.
But worrying the Democratic Party is also the case of candidates considered "unpresentable" by the government party itself, which has almost paradoxically invited voters not to vote for them. Some had been close in the past to extreme right-wing circles or suspected of having some contact with the Camorra (as denounced in an interview by the writer Roberto Saviano), still others would be related to Nicola Cosentino, former Forza Italia parliamentarian in prison for events related to organized crime. The most formidable opponent for De Luca is therefore himself, even if he should absolutely not be underestimated the outgoing president Stefano Caldoro of Forza Italia: he too under investigation, in March 2015, for abuse of office in the context of an investigation into local public transport, however he has not yet reached the trial but he too is accompanied on his list by some embarrassing candidacy.
Surveys. The situation is anything but simple for the Democratic Party candidate who, according to the results (without any statistical value) of a televoting during a televised debate on Sky, was overtaken by Caldoro: the Fi exponent obtained 48 % of preferences, followed by Valeria Ciarambino (Movimento 5 Stelle) with 25 and De Luca with just 12%. More realistically, a recent Ipsos poll for Corriere della Sera sees the former mayor of Salerno between 37 and 40%, pressed by the outgoing president between 33 and 36%. The grillina candidate is firmly in third position with a range between 14 and 17%, while Salvatore Vozza of Sel stops at around 5%.
Candidates. Vincenzo De Luca (Democratic Party), Stefano Caldoro (Forza Italia, New centre-right, Brothers of Italy), Valeria Ciarambino (5 Star Movement), Salvatore voice (Left ecology freedom, Communist Refoundation), Marco Esposito (civic list mo'), Michele Giliberti (Force new).
PUGLIA
Michele Emiliano he has a clear advantage, but the electoral campaign has not been easy: there have been many divisions between SEL and the Democratic Party. But the post-Vendola era (which he governed for 10 years) should in any case be marked by the centre-left, also thanks to the bloody divisions within Forza Italia, which split between supporters of Raffaele Fitto, who have proposed their own candidate, and the real Berlusconi, who instead have presented the candidacy of Adriana Poli Bortone. At the moment she would be the second to win, but the dispersion of votes is all to Emiliano's advantage.
Surveys. According to Ipsos polls, the former mayor of Bari is ahead, with consensus ranging from 47% to a possible absolute majority. It follows Adriana Poli Bortone, the Forza Italia candidate and former mayor of Lecce for two terms, which ranks between 20 and 23%. The fictitious candidate Francesco Schittulli, president of the Province of Bari until 2014, would instead obtain between 11 and 14%, less than what is thought to be achieved by the candidate of the 5 Star Movement Antonella Laricchia, a 28-year-old Bari student graduating in architecture, predicted between 13 and 16%. The undecided and those who do not intend to vote are almost half of those entitled.
Nominees. Michele Emiliano (Democratic Party, Communist Party of Italy, Popolari, We left for Puglia, and other civic lists), Adriana Poli Bortone (Forza Italia), Francis Schittulli (Besides with Fitto, New center-right, Brothers of Italy), Antonella Larich (5 Star Movement), Michele Rizzy (Communist alternative), Riccardo Red (The other Apulia), Gregorio Mariggiò (Greens).
