French elections: now who votes for whom? This is the crucial question after the first round delivered a new challenge between Emmanuel Macron, outgoing president, e Marine Le Pen, leader of the far right. As in 2017, even if the picture has changed a lot compared to five years ago.
In the first round, Macron obtained 27,6% of the votes, surpassing the result of five years ago, when he reached 24,1%. Marine Le Pen instead won 23,4%, also improving on the last electoral round which had assigned her 21,3%.
Mélenchon tip the scales
Another candidate who has achieved great results is the leader of France Insoumise, Jean-Luc Mélenchon, a former socialist, today the only real representative of the left: he obtained 21,9% of the preferences of the French, improving on the 19,5% obtained in 2017. Today he is the tip of the balance. Who will his votes go to?
The equation that “the votes of the left will definitely go to Macron” is not so linear. It is true that Jean-Luc Mélenchon clarified his thoughts regarding the second round immediately after the polls closed, repeating three times "not one vote shall go to Madame Le Pen”. But it is equally true that he did not indicate Macron as the candidate to choose. And so his voters remain free to vote for the outgoing president or not to go to the polls.
The left that votes for Le Pen?
Furthermore, as far-fetched as it may seem, some Mélenchon voters may even choose to vote for Le Pen. The programs of the two movements, in fact, share some essential points, such as the international position of France (both want an exit from NATO and a soft Frexit with negotiations that guarantee French products), without counting the attention to the impoverishment of citizens, for both workhorse of the electoral campaign.
What the polls say
They are not mere suggestions. The polls proposed by TV and French newspapers make it clear: Mélenchon's electorate is divided between a third who could vote for Macron, a third who could abstain and still another who would choose Le Pen to punish the "president of the rich". Macron.
Macron said it immediately after the vote, starting the electoral campaign. Starting today, he will travel first to the north of France, to the heart of the industrial country, and then to the south, that is, to the places where the adversaries, on the right and on the left, have made the most breakthroughs. Because the polls give this time Victorious Macron on the wire: 54% vs. 48%. A far cry from the 66,1% with which he won in 2017.
What votes can Macron count on?
Macron will certainly get the (few) votes of the socialists, dropped out dramatically with Anne Hidalgo, mayor of Paris, who achieved a paltry 1,7%; those of the communist Fabien Roussel, which stops at 2,3%; and those of the green Yannick Jadot, down sharply, to 4,5% from the 13,4% it reached at the Europeans three years ago. All three called on their constituents to vote for Macron.
Zémmour, the pro-Le Pen polemicist
Obviously they will go to Marine Le Pen the votes of Eric Zemmour, the polemicist who gave her the opportunity to present herself in the good dress of the "woman of state" who no longer screams, but appears calm and reflective. Zémmour, the real "bad guy" of these elections, reached 7%, far behind the voting intentions of the autumn, when he presented himself as the anti-Le Pen, the only far-right candidate who wanted seriously returning "France to the French", wiping Muslims and other foreigners from the homeland.
The doubts of the moderate right
And who will the remnants of the decent right, that of the former Gaullists of Valerie Pécresse, minister several times, pupil of Chirac, now president of the most important region of the country, Ile de France? The leader of the moderate right it reached only 4,7%, also below the 5% threshold which does not allow for electoral reimbursements from the state.
She declared herself for Macron in the second round, but also in this case mathematics does not make politics. And not just because there are few votes, but above all because both his party and his voters have many points in common with the Le Pen electorate and they may be moved to follow their hearts and not their heads. For example, on immigration they think almost the same way: no more European quotas, no family allowances for those who have not resided in France for at least five years, the end of the right to citizenship by birth and family reunification.
Not to mention that inside them the Gaullists are almost as divided as the left. And it is for this, among other things, that Valérie Pécresse suffered a humiliating defeat, net of a disastrous personal performance.
Abstentions in the first round
And therefore the attention of both Macron and Le Pen, beyond the official declarations of their former competitors, is now entirely concentrated on the largest electoral pool, the one that represents those who stayed at home. 26,2% of the French did not go to vote in the first round, 4% more than in 2017. A huge blow to a democracy "tired of itself", as some commentators have said.
And reflecting on the fact that the French often take a break in the second round (again in 2017 77,7% voted in the first round 74,5% in the second), one has to remain in suspense for another fifteen days . Not only in France, but throughout Europe.
