Electoral polls, you know, are worth what they are worth and It wouldn't be the first time pollsters got it all wrong. It may be true, but there has been a survey in thoughts and fears for a few days and especially since yesterday that scares the top of the Democratic Party and that of the Five Stars. This is the Winpoll-Il Sole 24 Ore survey, published by the Milanese business newspaper.
If we voted soon, the centre-right would prevail over the centre-left 50,8% against 42,9%. Yet, despite the Conte 2 Government being rejected on the health emergency, the economic crisis and the Recovery Plan, Prime Minister Giuseppe Conte would reap clear success if he decided to present his own electoral list, which would even become the first in the center-left. The numbers speak for themselves and the redistribution of votes that a premier's list would cause in the center-left is sensational: the Conte list is accredited with 16,5% of the votes, the Democratic Party with 13% and the Five Stars with 8%. Translated: if Conte presents his list, he will defeat Pd and Cinque Stelle by subtracting a flood of votes from his two most faithful allies and bringing both Nicola Zingaretti and Luigi Di Maio to their knees.
“The results of our survey – explains the political scientist Roberto D'Alimonte, professor at Luiss and considered one of the leading experts on electoral flows – are similar to those recently published by other institutions, such as the SWG” . And this is exactly what alarms Pd and Cinque Stelle because the survey by Winpoll-Il Sole 24 Ore it's not a bolt from the blue but the confirmation of a trend that had already been identified. “If 100 votes were cast for a hypothetical list created by Conte – points out Il Sole – 27,9% would come from voters who previously voted for M5S, 27,4% from voters of the Democratic Party and 24,2% from voters of the non-vote and from the uncertain”.
How will such a survey weigh on the ongoing consultations? In short, Conte yes or Conte no? It is difficult to say, but D'Alimonte photographs the situation well, arguing that a possible exclusion of Conte from the government could push him to speed up the formation of a list but "his stay in government involves future risks when it comes to voting in a year or so two". However, it should also be assessed whether, once ousted from the government and faced with a lasting legislature, Conte's electoral strength would remain unchanged and for how long.
In short, the bet is open and D'Alimonte's conclusion is the following: “Rational calculation should lead to Count ter with Renzi inside, but it is not yet certain that it will end like this” because “a government with Renzi and without Conte or an institutional government cannot yet be completely excluded”. Certainly the government crisis will not end in a few hours.
