Will the "red" wave of Germany also arrive in Italy, which with the victory of Olaf Scholz and the SPD has made it clear that perhaps the political wind is changing in Europe? We will find out, albeit partially, in this electoral session which between Sunday and Monday involves some of the most important cities in the country: the capital Rome, the locomotive Milan, then Turin, Bologna, Naples, but also Trieste, Salerno, Varese (where the League plays a lot) and without forgetting the by-elections for two seats in the Chamber of Deputies in the constituencies of Rome and above all in Siena, the city of Pd-Mps intrigue where he personally runs the secretary of the Democratic Party, Enrico Letta. In some cities, especially Rome, the game is still to be played, while in others (see Milan, but also Bologna) it seems already closed in favor of the centre-left, which in general seems destined to win in most cases. Will the Pd-5 Star agreement, where it has not resulted in a single candidate, resist the ballots? Will the League pay for the Morisi case? Will the popularity of Giorgia Meloni be enough for the right, despite having focused on modest candidates? Here are the key challenges, city by city.
Roma
It is the most important and uncertain challenge of all, with 4 candidates who aspire to double figures and the ballot, albeit with different possibilities, from what the polls say. In contention are the outgoing mayor Virginia Rages (Movimento 5 Stelle), the former Economy Minister Roberto Gualtieri for the Democratic Party, the independent reformist Carlo Calenda (Action) and the sole candidate of the centre-right Enrico Michetti. The latter, who comes from the world of local radios, starts in theory as the favorite to get to the ballot, given the consistent consensus of the Brothers of Italy and the League, which is why even the vacant seat for the Chamber - for the which the former magistrate Luca Palamara also presents as independent – should go to the right-wing candidate Pasquale Calzetta.
However, the ambitions of the Democratic Party are always solid in the capital, with Roberto Gualtieri who, according to the polls, should theoretically join Michetti in the ballot, and then defeat him. Watch out, however, for Calenda's rising quotations, which can turn things upside down: Renziano's former minister of economic development could benefit from a partial flight of votes from the center-right (Michetti has made a disastrous campaign and has not yet completed the program) and has the advantage that he campaigned long and intensely, having left first of all a year ago now. His victory would still be a surprise since he can't count on an electoral base, but a good result is in the air. After the poor performance at the helm of the city, however, the outgoing mayor is struggling, even though she hammers every day on her favorite channel, social networks, but who is fourth on the starting grid in the polls.
MILAN
Here, however, the game seems already closed before starting. The popularity of the outgoing mayor beppe room, which confirming itself would drag Milan to the 2026 Olympics after having organized the 2015 Expo before arriving at Palazzo Marino, and the continuous gaffes of the centre-right challenger Luke Bernard, leave no room for many doubts: it will be a Sala-bis, even if it remains to be seen by what margin. Sala took 2016% in the first round in 41 and then narrowly won the runoff against Stefano Parisi, with 51%. This time, however, any poll gives him a winner already in the first round (55%, with Bernardo 20 points behind), while the 5 Star Movement continues to fail in the "moral capital" of the country: the candidate Layla Pavone, (former) director of the company editorial that publishes Il Fatto Quotidiano, does not reach 7% in the forecasts.
TURIN
The Piedmontese capital is the only large city where the centre-right has concrete chances of victory and above all where it presents an authoritative and esteemed candidate: it is the entrepreneur Paolo Damilano (his group produces mineral water, Barolo, pasta and is the owner of the historic Bar Zucca in Turin), who in fact, to distance himself from other improvised candidates from the same political area, has already said he appreciates Beppe Sala. Damilano focuses on the undecided, which in Turin are many, around 40% according to polls, and launches the challenge to Valentina Sganga of the 5 Star Movement (outgoing mayor Chiara Appendino has renounced) and the "Chiamparinian" of the Democratic Party Stephen Lo Russogeologist by profession. The challenge is very open, it should be played between Lo Russo and Damilano but in Turin the M5S is not completely defeated as in other cities.
NAPLES
Instead, where the 5 Star Movement is very strong is in Naples, the "city of basic income" one could say. And in fact, a former minister of the Conte government was nominated in the Campania capital, Gaetano Manfredi, and the centre-left is united around his name. In case of victory, Manfredi will also be appointed extraordinary commissioner of the Bagnoli area, to reclaim which some resources of the Pnrr will converge. In short, Naples votes for a super mayor, with the possibility of reducing part of the vast power built up in recent years by the "viceroy" Vincenzo De Luca, president of the Region. Manfredi is favored but in Naples the theme is also abstention: in 2016 only 35% of those entitled voted in the ballot. Here, unlike elsewhere, the right is divided: the League has failed to present its list and candidate Catello Maresca he will also have to beware of the revived former mayor Antonio Bassolino, who gets back into play at the age of 74. However, the 5 Star Movement is at stake for everything, which clings to the Gulf to prove that it is still alive.
BOLOGNA
The Pd-5 Star alliance also worked in Bologna, in support of the highly favored candidate Matthew Lepore, former councilor of the outgoing council and with a great advantage in the polls. To the point that the rival, the civic candidate supported by the center-right Fabio Battistini, has in fact already raised the white flag, declaring himself ready to collaborate above all on the use of Pnrr funds. Another setback for Matteo Salvini, overwhelmed by the Morisi scandal and with the aspiring mayors chosen by him increasingly distant from his orbit or clearly given up for losers. According to the polls, Lepore should already win in the first round, with the hypothesis of even grabbing 60% of the preferences. Battistini very far behind, which should stop at around 35% or a little more.
SUPPLEMENTARY SIENA
Also important was the assignment of the vacant seat in the Chamber for the Toscana 12 constituency, that of Siena and its province. Siena is the city of MPS scandals, to which the Democratic Party is inexorably linked. The Secretary Enrico Letta however, he decided to put his face on it, or rather only that: to win a place as deputy where Pier Carlo Padoan was elected in 2018, Letta spends his name but not the symbol of the party. A choice that says a lot, but the secretary of the Democratic Party still remains the clear favorite, given that he is also supported by the 5 Star Movement and Italia Viva. The center-right has chosen to focus on the entrepreneur Tommaso Marrocchesi Marzi but with little chance of victory, while Italexit and the No Vax Movement are also trying, and for them it would be their absolute (but in fact impossible) debut in Parliament.
