Il Brazil at the reckoning. Sunday October 30 the largest economy in South America (220 million inhabitants and 150 million voters) elects the president: the outgoing one will be re-elected Jair Bolsonaro or the ex-trade unionist will triumph Squid, former president from 2003 to 2011? The latter is ahead in the polls, but the narrow margin (4-5 points, making an average of the recent surveys) does not leave him calm, above all recalling what happened in first round of 2 October, when the sovereign president denied the forecasts that gave him 15 points behind with Lula's possible victory in the first round, instead reaching 43% of the votes (7 points more than the 36% attributed by the polls). Lula, who turned 77 last Thursday and is now physically tested by his age and by the almost 2 years spent in prison for his conviction (later revoked) for corruption, is still the favourite, but in a certain sense his election would make him a case unique in the world: of very humble origins, he has not completed his studies and has already been at the top of his country for 8 years, following the democratic rules. Unlike other similar leaders, he points out Globo, like Nelson Mandela, who was a graduate, or like Lech Walesa, who did indeed have a curriculum at Lula, but he failed on his second attempt with 1% of the votes.
Brazil 2022 elections: Lula president of the people, but also of economists
Lula was and is a candidate to be the president of the people, the one who reduced extreme poverty in Brazil from 18,5% to 5%, a figure that instead under Bolsonaro has risen to 9,5%: today there are 33 million Brazilians who have difficulty in having access to food, and the The country has recently returned to the UN Hunger Map. But that's not just why a return of the leader of the Workers Party it would be preferable, even for economists and the financial markets, who in fact "support" him, to the point that in case of victory his government could almost be more technical than political. More economists than ex barricade trade unionists, to be clear, and indeed the choices in the electoral campaign have already gone in this direction. Lula, in fact, managed to achieve what the Italian centre-left had been missing: a more than wide, very wide field, with 9 parties that supported him in the first round (a record for a Brazilian presidential election), to which he was added for the ballot the support of the two centrists defeated on October 2, Simon Tebet e Ciro Gomes. They will bring about 5-6% as a dowry, which could prove to be decisive and which in fact creates a coalition of "national unity", with the aim of overthrowing the sovereign Bolsonaro, accused of any wickedness during the pandemic but who in reality the duel with Lula he also loses it from the point of view of economic numbers.
With Lula Pil breaking a record, Bolsonaro is holding on to public debt
In the Lula years, in fact, Brazil grew by 6-7%, driven by commodities and household consumption, and also resisting the collapse of Lehman Brothers, while with Bolsonaro during the pandemic GDP fell by 4%, reaching its maximum growth (+4,7%) at the beginning of this year, only to then slow down again. The latest official data, that of the second quarter of 2022, speaks of a growth of 2,6%. The forecast for the end of the year according to the IMF is 2,8%, less than the global average (3,2%), Italy (3,2%) and the other former emerging countries, with the exception of Russia, which will grow in average of 3,7% also in 2023, when instead Brazil will slow down to 1%. Next year, China will recover 4,4%, while India will grow by more than 6%.
Alarm also for the unemployment, which at the end of 2022 will be close to 10%: Lula had brought it to 7,8% in 2010, with Bolsonaro instead Brazil records the second worst figure in all of Latin America, better only than Colombia's 11%. It's a little better forinflation, which Bolsonaro is containing around 9%, a figure in line with the South American area, even if with Lula it had fallen below 6%.
However, the outgoing president is accused of "doping" the economy to cover up the leaks and garner consensus: this is why the petrol yes, it is at historic lows, but thanks to conspicuous public interventions, and the Auxilio Brasil subsidy, the Brazilian Citizenship Income, has been brought to unprecedented figures to stop the social emergency after the pandemic. But not even those who perceive it trust it, so much so that among those who receive aid, the favorite is in any case Lula.
Bolsonaro will be able to count on governors and a (relative) majority in Congress
The economy, for those few positive signs that emerge, is in fact doing a "chicken flight", according to the expression used in an editorial in the Folha de Sao Paulo, signed by the economist Nelson Barbosa. The apparent push of the last few months, which, as we have seen, is not even extraordinary, will not hold up. It is a flash in the pan that will quickly lead to stagnation: “Some forecasts speak of a growth of just 0,6% in 2023, therefore a figure lower than the population growth (0,7%)”. Therefore further per capita impoverishment, and this is Brazil, which is concluding this electoral rush exhausted by tensions and violence, cannot afford it.
In the still possible case of Bolsonaro's re-election, things could even precipitate, but even if Lula wins, his task will not be easy. Many Brazilians, while preferring him to his opponent, do not forgive his involvement (never fully clarified, the process has to be redone) in the scandal lava Jato, and in any case his government will be called to many compromise solutions, given that, even in the event of defeat, Bolsonaro will be able to count on many governors in key states (in Rio his candidate has already been re-elected, in Sao Paulo the right favorite in the second round) and his Liberal Party will in any case, after the results of 2 October, be the largest group in the Federal Congress, both at Camera (99 deputies against 68 of Lula's PT) that al Senate (13 against 9). The match is wide open and it will be a battle even after the vote.
