The stock exchanges reopen their doors this morning with an upward trend, then slow down. The data on the US labor market (+196 jobs in March, +3,2% increase in payrolls) and the announcement of new stimuli from China supported the optimism: a document published yesterday evening on the central bank's website he anticipated cuts in banks' reserve requirements "to encourage lending to small and medium-sized enterprises". In short, the big companies are competing to support the markets thus exorcising the signs of a slowdown and fears for the next US quarterly campaign. But the markets are under no illusions: for the first time since 2016 there will be an average decline in profits. Friday the first test with JP Morgan and Wells Fargo.
FLY SHANGHAI, NISSAN CANCEL GHOSN
Thus the Chinese Stock Exchanges retreat after an upward start: from +1,4%, to the highest in 13 months, the CSI index closes at -0,5%. The other Asian lists were also down: Hong Kong -0,3%%.
The Tokyo Stock Exchange closes at -0,2%, still on the highs. A fiery assembly at Nissan ousted Carlos Ghosn of all posts in the group but acquitted the rest of the board of oversight charges amid protests. Carole Ghosn, wife of the former CEO, hastily left Tokyo without being received by the investigators, for fear of being stopped in turn.
On the currency market, the euro was weak at 1,218 against the dollar, not far from the lows of the last twenty months. Gold trades at $1.296,31 an ounce. The pound suffers, at 1,3046 against the dollar: Theresa May has admitted that her agreement can only be approved with the support of the Labor Party. The possibility of a flexible extension, proposed by Brussels, has been described as "purgatory" by a prominent British member of Parliament. Wednesday the vote of the Eurogroup.
Futures on European stock exchanges anticipate a mixed start.
LIBYA EFFECT, OIL OVER 70 DOLLARS
Oil is seething, buoyed by the glimmers of war between Libyan factions. Brent traded above the $70 barrier this morning (70,73), Wti at $63,46.
The bond of Aramco, the Saudi oil giant, issued for 10 billion dollars has received requests for 30 billion.
BROKINGS ALARM: "ECONOMICS IN BRAKING"
An intense political and financial week is looming which includes, among other things, the spring meetings of the International Monetary Fund, an opportunity to take stock of the slowdown in the locomotives of the global economy. The index elaborated by the Brookings Institution speaks of "synchronized braking": it is not a recession, but the alarm signals (Italy but not only, there is no shortage).
TRMP INSISTS: CUT RATES BY HALF A POINT
Central banks will once again be in the spotlight. The publication of the minutes of the latest Fed meeting, scheduled for Wednesday, comes at a time of extreme tension between Washington bankers and President Trump who, after announcing the appointment of two of his loyalists to the board, supported the need to cut rates by at least half a point. A "dove" vision should emerge from the minutes, but not so extreme.
ECB, TEST BEFORE TLTRO LOANS. LAST CALL FOR LONDON
The next day it will be the ECB's turn. The operators do not anticipate a change of route in Frankfurt. The launch of the Tltro loans should take place in June, the first operations will take place in September, three months before Mario Draghi's exit.
DEF, THE PROCESS BEGINS. FOR BANK CRASHES (MAYBE) IT CLOSES
Tomorrow the Economic and Financial Document should arrive on the table of the Council of Ministers on Tuesday. Minister Giovanni Tria flaunts optimism after receiving the consent of the EU economic affairs commissioner, Pierre Moscovici, from Ecofin, who defined him as "the right man, in the right place, at the right time". But the vice president of the EU Commission, Valdis Dombrovskis, cooled the enthusiasm: the estimate of +0,2% of the winter economic forecasts "could be revised downwards, and we have to see what implications it will have on the budget".
Reimbursement to the victims of bank crashes will also be the focus of the meeting between Prime Minister Giuseppe Conte and the savers' associations.
Since the beginning of the year, the Italian Stock Exchange, at its highest level since August. It recorded an increase of about 19%. It was the fourth octave in a row with the plus sign.
FCA BUYS ELECTRIC RIGHTS TO TESLA, ELKANN TODAY AT CERN
At the attention of Piazza Affari this morning the purchase of green credits "for hundreds of millions of euros" by Fiat Chrysler for the benefit of Testa. The Italian-American group, late in the race to comply with the CO2 emission standards set for 2021, has created a pool that will allow the group's vehicles to average and Tesla's electric vehicles. The license to pollute will allow FCA to gain precious time to accelerate on the front of electric and hybrid engines. John Elkann will be able to say something more today in Geneva on the occasion of the presentation at Cern of the FCA 'Science Gateway' project in memory of Sergio Marchionne which will be illustrated by the general manager Fabiola Gianotti.
BNCHE, CASTAGNA CHOOSES UBI, BETTER THAN MPS
Bank mergers remain at the center of market attention. On the international front, the focus will be on the outcome of the talks between the top management of Deutsche Bank and Commerzbank over the weekend. Important days also for the Italian banking risk. At Banco Bpm's balance sheet meeting, CEO Giuseppe Castagna expressed his approval for a common path with banks in neighboring areas, "the richest and most productive areas of the country", i.e. Ubi Banca or Bper. The Mps hypothesis was discarded because from this merger, the manager said, a group with a "homogeneous" network of branches would be born throughout Italy and therefore would be a sort of repetition (in small size) of Intesa Sanpaolo and Unicredit.
RAIN OF ASSEMBLY. SPOTLIGHT ON UNICREDIT
Week full of assemblies for Piazza Affari. We start tomorrow with Banca Mediolanum, Wednesday it will be the turn of Fineco and Piaggio, Thursday with Banca Mps, Recordati and, above all, Unicredit. Friday will be the turn of Ubi and Cattolica insurance companies. However, the accounts of the Agnelli galaxy will take center stage: CNH, Ferrari and Fiat Chrysler, concentrated on 12 April.
