Spreads down sharply after the regional elections who delivered the victory to Stefano Bonaccini (PD) in Emilia Romagna and in Jole Santelli (Forza Italia) in Calabria. The eyes of the markets focused above all on the Emilian result, considered fundamental for the stability of the Government. With the personal victory of Bonaccini (51,4% against 43,6% of Borgonzoni) and the affirmation of the PD as the first party (34,7% against 31,9% of the League), but above all with the first defeat of Matteo Salvini's League since 2018, the Executive today wobbles a little less, even if the debacle of the 5 Star Movement, which has almost disappeared in both regions, could give way to a rebalancing of positions.
The Btp Bund spread at the opening collapsed to its lowest since August, falling to 141,8 basis points. An hour later it is at 143 points, down thirteen points compared to the 156 of Friday's closing, while the interest rate 1,055-year yield is at 14,5% (-XNUMX%).
According to Unicredit Research analysts the Btp rally could also continue in the next few days, bringing down the spread with the Bund in the area of 135-140 basis points.
“The regional elections in Emilia Romagna – says Unicredit – were considered by the markets as one of the obstacles that the current government had to face in 2020; therefore, investors could decide to further increase their exposure to Italian government bonds”.
“The PD comes out strengthened by the electoral outcome in a confrontation that has returned to being bipolar. His weight in the central government is destined to rise, also given the 5stelle debacle. In our opinion this has positive consequences for the government's more moderate and reformist requests, for example on issues relating to motorway concessions, public water (utilities) or infrastructural investments”. Equita experts comment.
The performance of government bonds pushes banks and utilities onto the stock market, up sharply despite the drop in the Ftse Mib (-0,8%) and all European lists, worried about the spread of the coronavirus. In fact, at the top of the main list we find Italgas (+1,6%), followed by Poste Italiane (+1,5%), Banco Bpm (+0,9%), Intesa and Unicredit, both up by 0,8% .
