The Italian underground economy is worth about 195 billion euros, equal to 12,5% of the national GDP. The figure - referring to 2017, the year of the last available survey - is contained in the "Report on the unobserved economy and on tax and social security evasion”, a substantial study prepared by the Giovannini Commission of the Mef and attached to the last one Update note of the Economic and financial document.
The analysis shows that the absolute value of the economy hidden from the tax authorities decreased in 2015 (to 191 billion, from 196 in the previous year) and in 2016 (to 189 billion), to then rise again in 2017. The incidence on GDP, on the other hand, it remained almost stable over the three years (12,8% in 2015 and 12,6% in 2016).
UNDER-DECLARATIONS AND ILLEGAL WORK
But what is hidden in the great cauldron of the underground economy? The most relevant components are sub-declarations, which represent 50,5% of the total, and undeclared work, which reaches 41,2%. Less heavy, but still significant, is the contribution of all the other items (for example, tips or irregular rents), which overall stands at 8,3%.
IRPEF NOT PAID
On the first front, Irpef not paid by businesses and self-employed workers is decreasing slowly but steadily: the report estimates 34 billion for 2016, 32 billion for 2017 and 31 billion for 2018. in recent years it would seem to be attributable to the regulatory innovations that have taken place - reads the analysis - in particular with reference to the reform of the simplified accounting regime".
THE VAT TAX GAP
The trend of the VAT tax gap is less regular. Between 2015 and 2016, the value of the unpaid tax rose from 35 to 37 billion, before suddenly falling to 33 billion in 2018. In fact, the study explains that the downward trend began in 2015 and is "mainly attributable to introduction of the split", while the temporary inversion recorded in 2017 is due to "accounting effects linked to the stock of receivables".
BLACK WORK
As for undeclared work, in 2017 there were 3 million and 700 thousand irregular full-time work units, a figure up by 0,7% compared to 2016 and made up mainly of people employed as employees (2 million and 695 thousand units). "The rate of irregularities, used as an indicator of the diffusion of the phenomenon and calculated as a percentage of irregular AWUs on the total - continues the Report - is however stable in the last two years: 15,5% in 2016 and 2017".
BLACK ECONOMY AND TERRITORY
At a territorial level, the incidence of the underground economy is very high in the South, where it represents 19,4% of the total value added. In the Centre, the weight stands at 14,1%, while the shares in the North-West and North-East do not go beyond 10,6% and 11,4%.
