The negative signals for the Italian economy, from GDP to industrial production, now also involve Lombardy, a region where one fifth of the national GDP is produced and where the recovery has been more substantial in recent years. According to the Booklet of the Assolombarda study centre, during 2018 the Lombard economy also lost strength, with signs of a slowdown both in productive activity and in the labor market. And the prospects are for a continuation of this phase of weakness also in the first months of 2019.
In particular, manufacturing production in Lombardy grew in the first two quarters of 2018 at rates close to 4%. to then drop to variations below 2% in the second half of the year. Overall in 2018, the increase in activity stood at +3%, a performance that is still fully positive but still lower than the +3,7% of 2017 and with a worrying trend in recent months.
The deceleration of the economic cycle inevitably also had an impact on the climate of confidence and on employment dynamics. Confidence in manufacturing in Milan, Lodi, Monza and Brianza rises slightly in December, but remains well below zero and at its lowest since 2012. On the other hand, confidence in the innovative tertiary sector rebounds slightly in the 4th quarter of 2018 but remains at its lowest level in the last four years. In Lombardy, in the third quarter of 2018, the employed increased by +16 thousand units compared to the same period of 2017, but this balance is sharply decreasing compared to +54 thousand in the second quarter. Requests for temporary agency workers also dropped significantly in Milan, Lodi, Monza and Brianza: -58% in the fourth quarter of 2018 compared to 2017, after the already substantial contraction in the third quarter (-37%).
As a result, the GDP itself was also revised downwards by Assolombarda: the most updated estimates indicate an increase in the Lombard gross domestic product of +1,4% in 2018, slowing down after the sustained +2,7% in 2017. Still firmly above that of the national average, but with a possible alarm bell.
