Slow start to the financial week in Asian markets. The Nikkei index in Tokyo is down slightly (-0,05%), Hong Kong is down 0,4%.
“The recovery is there, but weaker than expected”. Thus the director general of the IMF, Christine Lagarde, who anticipated that the estimates on the economy for 2014 will be revised downwards for the current year compared to the April forecast (+3,4%). However, China is picking up speed, which could close the year at +7,5%.
Wall Street, after the long weekend, reopens its doors with the aim of confirming the fresh records: Dow Jones over 17 points (17.086 +1,3% in the week), Standard & Poor's one step away from 2 points (1985 with an increase of 1,3%).
The opportunity for the leap forward will be offered by the quarterly campaign. We begin on Wednesday 8, with the accounts (as per tradition) of Alcoa: the Bloomberg consensus predicts an average growth in profits of the S&P 500 of 5%, against an increase in turnover in the order of 3%.
Europe restarts after Friday's slide which curtailed the week's gains. However, the Stoxx 600 index closed up 1,8%, the p/o ratio rose to 15,7 times, the highest since 2009.
In Piazza Affari, the index gained 1,1% in five sessions, interrupting a series of three consecutive weeks of decline. Since the beginning of the year, the Milanese price list has risen by 13,6%.
The spread between BTPs and Bunds restarts from 156 basis points, at its lowest level in two weeks and the domestic 2,82-year yield settled at XNUMX%, continuing to benefit from the favorable sentiment on bonds in the Periphery after the technical details on targeted refinancing operations long-term (Tltro) announced yesterday by Eurotower.
BOT AND BTP, TWO AUCTIONS DURING THE WEEK. AND TWO IPOS ON THE STOCK EXCHANGE
Today the Treasury will communicate the characteristics of the Bot offer at the auction on Thursday 10 July. The medium-long term BTPs will go to auction on Friday. The modalities will be announced tomorrow.
In view of tomorrow's Ecofin, the most important figure of the day concerns German industrial production. The minutes of the last meeting of the Fed will be published on Wednesday. The publication of the ECB bulletin is expected on Thursday. Mario Draghi will hold a lectio magistralis in London in the name of Tomaso Padoa Schioppa.
Vodafone Group's takeover bid for Cobra Automotive kicks off this morning in Piazza Affari at a price of 1,49 euros per share. The capital increase of As Roma, Class Editori and Frendy Energy continues. The IPOs of Rottapharm (deadline July 10) and Sisal (July 14) continue. The dividends are detached from Engineering (0,6563 euro and Trevi Finanziaria (0,13 euro).
TELEPHONE, AXIS WITH FININVEST ALSO FOR PREMIUM
In the spotlight this morning in Piazza Affari Mediaset, after the signing of the longed-for agreement with Telefonica on Digital+. The Spanish telecommunications giant will pay Biscione 295 million for 22% of the platform. Furthermore, the Spanish company will pay Mediaset 30 million euros for the failure by the Italian company to exercise the pre-emption right on the share held by Prisa. To these figures, another 30 million will have to be added if the platform's subscribers rise above a certain ceiling in the next four years. If other collaborations between Mediaset Espana and Telefonica are taken into account, the final amount of the transaction could even increase to around 390 million.
Pier Silvio Berlusconi has meanwhile confirmed that the Spanish company will also enter Premium, thwarting the pressure from Al Jazeera. In short, Telefonica seems more interested in Italy in the production of content to feed its broadband network than in the telecommunications business.
In any case, attention to Telecom Italia is also rising, after the chills on Friday (-1,5% after a minimum of -4%) after the indiscretion relaunched by Bloomberg according to which the Renzi government is studying the possibility of extending the golden power also to the group's foreign subsidiaries, thus vetoing a possible sale of Tim Brasil (-7% on Friday after a minimum of -0,9%).
BANKS, INCREASES BEHIND
Forget Budapest. The cold shower rained down on the European banking sector on Friday following the collapse of Erste Group Bank AG, which left 16% on the ground in Vienna after announcing a loss of around 1,6 billion euros due to loan write-downs in Hungary and Romania. The news had a devastating effect on the two main Italian banks: Unicredit -3,2% and Intesa Sanpaolo -3%, with a strong presence in Eastern Europe.
July full of appointments for Mediobanca (-1,67% on Friday). on the 16th a new board of directors of the institute will be held which will meet again the following day, on July 17th, to examine the preliminary balance sheet for the financial year concluded at the end of June and the budget for the fiscal year that has just begun. In the meantime, Vincent Bolloré increased his stake in the bank's capital by 0,46% and contributed to the shareholders' agreement, thus rising from 6% to 6,46%, as emerges from the update of the shareholders' agreement announced today. The Breton financier has the right to raise up to 8% of Mediobanca's capital. Currently he is already the second shareholder of the institute behind Unicredit which has 8,66%.
Carige's 800 million euro capital increase closed on Friday with subscriptions equal to 99,9% of the new shares offered for a total amount of 798,2 million. Now the Carige Foundation could also sell a further share of the Ligurian institute and go down to 12% from the current 19%.
Banca Popolare di Sondrio instead successfully closed the offer of new shares for 342,44 million (99,76% subscribed). In this way, the season of capital increases in the banking system has almost ended. Among the listed securities, only the conclusion of the Banca Popolare dell'Emilia-Romagna operation (750 million) is missing. In all, nearly 11 billion euros were raised.
ENEL AND ENI, THE TREASURY BRINGS CASH
After the non-exciting launch of Fincantieri and the postponement of the quotation of the Italian Post Office, the Treasury is ready to play the last card to safeguard the objective announced by Minister Pier Carlo Padoan: to privatize assets equal to 0,7% of GDP for next three years. The most viable route concerns the sale of shares in Enel, from the current 31,24 to 25,1% and 4,34% of Eni (25,76% is controlled indirectly through the Cassa Depositi e Prestiti), transactions which could be obtained at current prices 5,4 billion. The program for 2014 is completed with the transfer of the share of Stm to Fondo Strategico Italiano (Cdp) and the placement of a share of Cdp Reti.
ITALCEMENTI APPLIES TO THE FTSE/MIB
“Thanks to the capital increase and simplification Italcementi could enter the Ftse Mib index”. This was said by the managing director of Italcementi Carlo Pesenti, commenting on the squeeze out (i.e. the right to purchase the remaining shares) of Ciments Français, an operation which will close on July 15th at the price of 79,5 euro, the same paid for the offer. The period of validity of the takeover bid on the shares of the French subsidiary ended on Friday and the Bergamo-based company rose to 97,73% of the capital and 98,65% of the voting rights of the company.
Pesenti also added that an increase in the dividend for shareholders is not excluded. Banca Akros maintained the hold recommendation on the stock, target price at 7,7 euro. Mediobanca Securities recalled that the merger between the two companies will have a limited impact in terms of synergies, estimated at around 5-10 million euro. The investment bank does not have a rating on the share since it acted as financial advisor of the operation and as guarantor of the capital increase, while Equita kept the hold rating unchanged and the target price at 7,3 euro.
