THE 2 SUPERMARIOS ON THE ATTACK: WRATH OF DRAGONS ON THE RATING. MONTI CHALLENGES MERKEL. THE SPREAD NOW DEPENDS ON YOU
The recurrence of Martin Luther King Day, the closing day of the US squares, has helped to cushion the Standard & Poor's effect on European markets. The Stock Exchanges of the Old Continent closed up with a notable acceleration in the final, after a day with little movement, given the absence of the American "mouths of fire". The FtseMib index of Milan rose by 1,4%, London +0,4%, Paris +0,8%, Frankfurt +1,2%. Me too'auction of French government bonds, ended successfully: the Treasury beyond the Alps placed 8,6 billion euros in government bonds of various maturities with slightly lower yields. The yields of Italian BTPs fall by 2 basis points to 6,6%. The spread with the Bund narrows to 484,6 basis points.
But the situation is now at risk of collapse, according to the two super Marios, Draghi and Monti. The president of the ECB Mario Draghi he did not resort to half measures: “The situation – he said – is extremely serious. It has even worsened since in October my predecessor, Jean-Claude Trichet, speaking to you, defined the situation as a 'systemic crisis'. Because the sovereign debt crisis and the uncertainties about growth have created serious distortions in the real economy”. Finally Draghi attacked the downgrading of the Eurozone countries (excluding Germany, Holland and a few others) stating that we must learn to live almost without rating agencies.
Meanwhile, Italy is finally playing on the attack. "Germany must do more to help Italy reduce the cost of its debt." Mario Monti takes the field with an interview with the Financial Times three days after the S&P downgrade of nine countries in the euro area. “It was not – he comments – a rejection of our government but of European politics and institutions”. Germany, added the Italian prime minister, must realize that aiding Italy to lower interest rates through convincing action (ie Eurobonds) is in its interest: "Berlin - underlines Monti - has benefited from 'Europe perhaps more than all the others'. In short, in the face of Italy's sacrifices, which are necessary for the good of the country, Monti underlines, not to obey Germany, "there must be some tangible improvement which can only be a drop in interest rates".
S&P DOWNGRADES THE BAVY-STATE FUND
S&P's, however, doesn't stop: yesterday the rating agency's ax fell on the EFSF. The Save the States Fund of the European Union. The downgrade of the Fund's issues, from triple A to AA+, was foreseeable after France's relegation, given that behind the EFSF there is now only one country, Germany, with an AAA rating. But it is a new sign of distrust surrounding EU initiatives even if the director of the Fund, Klaus Regling minimizes the practical effects of the decision: “Our financial solidity is not compromised in the slightest – he said. We continue to have 440 billion, a figure more than enough to arrive in July, the date scheduled for the launch of the ESM, the European stability mechanism” which could see the light as early as March.
METEOBORSA: CLEAR SEA COMES FROM ASIA. CHINA HOLDS BACK, FUTURES ACCELERATE
Lively session on the Asian lists. Tokyo gains just over 1%, Hong Kong's Hang Seng jumps 2,25%. The reason for so much euphoria lies in the announcement that the Chinese GDP for the fourth quarter confirmed the signs of a slowdown in the second largest economy on the planet: "only" +8,9%, accompanied by the forecast of Ma Jiantang, spokesman for the local Istat, who the trend will last throughout 2012. Thus, the possibility of an easing of the monetary tightening in Beijing, eagerly awaited by real estate developers in Shanghai and financiers in Hong Kong, takes shape. Yesterday, meanwhile, the British premier David Osborne, on a visit to the former colony of the empire, opened the doors of the City to the renmimbi: London must become the main port for exchanges in the Chinese currency.
BANKS, EBA D DAY IS APPROACHING. BOLLORE' REACHES 6% OF MEDIOBANCA
The downgrade of S&P especially disturbed the securities of the banks, which recovered towards the end thanks also to the success of the French auction. Intesa Sanpaolo closed up 1,2%, Unicredit +0,4%. A report by Equita Sim (which participates in the underwriting consortium) reveals that the security trades at 0,39 times the tangible net worth of the institution against a European average of 0,66 times (for Intesa the ratio is 0,62). After the increase, therefore, there are the conditions for an upward realignment to 4,7 euros. Banco Popolare +0,3%, Ubi +2,1%, PopMilano +4,6%. MontePaschi closed weakly, down 2,9%. With the last check for 83.910 euros, Vincent Bollorè concluded his work of strengthening Mediobanca. The Breton financier, historical shareholder of Piazzetta Cuccia, has purchased another 21.500 shares and reaches 6% of the merchant bank, a share that consolidates him as the second shareholder and leader of group C of foreign shareholders.
FIAT PUT SIXTH INTO SIXTH THANKS TO GOLDMAN SACHS. DOLLAR EFFECT FOR STM, LUXURY EXTENDS
In Piazza Affari, auto stocks ran: Pirelli +4,9%, Fiat +7%, Fiat Industrial +3,9%, all three supported by buy promotion of Goldman Sachs. In particular, Fiat's target price was raised to 8,4 euros, with a "buy" recommendation. Exor, the financial company of the Agnellis, rose by 6,5%.
According to the US bank report, the auto sector in Europe fell by 2011% in 29, reflecting forecasts of a declining market in 2012. For 2012, analysts expect a 4% drop in car sales in the Old Continent, but a 5% growth worldwide to about 85 million units. Against this backdrop, Goldman recommends focusing on the shares of companies exposed to the premium segment and on Fiat. Thanks to the merger with Chrysler, Lingotto has in fact managed to become the third largest US manufacturer and to "shift" its source of profitability from Europe to the US, an area which accounts for more than 50% of the group's sales. Furthermore, today Fiat has a market capitalization of 5,1 billion euros against an EBITDA of 4,2 billion at the end of 2012, according to Gs forecasts. According to Interbrand's latest report on the 100 best-known brands in the world, the Ferrari brand alone, which occupies the 99th position in the rankings, is worth 2,9 billion euros (3,5 billion dollars), which is 83 % of the entire stock market value of the Fiat group.
Pirelli has also been included in the "Conviction buy list", the list of securities to buy with conviction, together with BMW and Daimler. The broker considers stocks in the sector at a discount and expects auto stocks to have an upside potential of 62% over the next 12 months. Since the beginning of the year, the Pirelli share has risen by 2,15%.
Opposed insurance. Generali rose by 0,6%. Unipol lost 5,1%, Fondiaria-Sai -5,2% and the subsidiary Milano Assicurazioni canceled the losses in the final stages and closed up 2,2%. Among the companies of the Ligresti group interested in the maxi merger project with Unipol, Premafin, the Ligresti holding company, was saved, which rose by 0,3% to 0,339 euro, but remains well below the takeover bid price indicated at 0,3656 ,XNUMX euros. In the meantime, the complex due diligence of Unipol on the Florentine company has begun: the forecast is that the times are destined to lengthen.
In general, “dollar sensitive” stocks performed well, i.e. exposed to the dollar area which is recovering strongly against the single currency (+11% since the beginning of November): Lottomatica +3,5%, controls the American GTech, Autogrill +1,5%, Campari +2,1%. StM deserves a separate note which gained 7,2. StM rises by 6% to 5,26 euros. Since the beginning of 2012, the stock has gained 12%. The appreciation of the dollar against the euro contributes to supporting the prices (the 1% growth of the dollar entails 10 million euros of higher operating profit for the semiconductor group) which has fallen to its lowest since July 2010 and the signs of recovery of the sector. A note from the French broker Natixis notes the decline in inventories at companies. As a result, a revival of demand and production is expected.
In luxury, Luxottica +1,7% and Ferragamo +4% rose, following the good results of the Swiss Richemont: the world's leading jewelery group closed the last quarter with higher-than-expected revenues and in Zurich the share rose by 2,7. XNUMX%.
Among the mid caps, Landi Renzo +6,6% and Benetton +5,1% ran up. Rcs -3,7% and Acea -5% were down. For the publishing house, there is a real risk that the Spanish stake will not pass the impairment test, making it necessary to write down the capital.
Carnival, the American company that controls Costa Cruises, collapsed on the London Stock Exchange by 16% after the Concordia disaster on Giglio Island.
