Exports from the Lombard industrial districts are slowing down, in the wake of the national one and the general climate of weakness in international trade, even if 2018 will in any case be remembered as a positive year: above all thanks to the excellent first half, exports from the Lombardy, the region that produces about a fifth of the national GDP, have yielded over 100 million euros more than in 2017. It is what emerges from
Monitor of the Districts of Lombardy, edited by the Intesa Sanpaolo study center and updated with the data of the fourth quarter of 2018.
In the last quarter of 2018 there was therefore a slowing down the rate of growth of exports from the traditional Lombard districts, +0,7% in tendential terms, which mirrors a general slowdown in the economy and in world trade. Furthermore, it should be noted that the comparison is made with a particularly brilliant fourth quarter of 2017, which had recorded an increase of 9,8% on 2016. Adding up the results of the previous three quarters, and in particular the very positive performance of the first half of 2018, last year closed with an overall increase in exports of 3,8% (quantifiable at about 109 million euros more), among the best results of the national district aggregate, where the average annual growth of exports was 2,2%.
I mature markets have been the key to the performance of Lombard exports, both in the fourth quarter of 2018, when they recorded a +3,5%, and for the year as a whole, with a cumulative growth of 6,4%. Germany, France and Spain, when taken together, are worth more than a third of the region's district exports. The first two countries also stood out for their good growth dynamics compared to 2017: +6,7% sales in Germany (+281 million euros) and +6,2% in France (+157 million euros), despite more contained increases occurred in the fourth quarter. The United States also played a leading role in the 2018 export rankings (+13,5% cumulative performance, i.e. +211 million euros), albeit with very polarized results at sectoral level (where the situation of the steel industry remains to be monitored, after the introduction of tariffs in June 2018) and individual districts.
There was a slight decrease in exports destined for the United Kingdom (-1,6%), which currently resists in fifth place in the regional ranking. Another decline for direct exports to new markets, in the October-December quarter (-3,9%). Only the temporary recovery that was observed in the second quarter allows emerging markets to close 2018 with a slight decrease on 2017 (-0,8%). Some important markets such as Turkey, the Russian Federation and Algeria (linked to the world of steel, especially for construction) are still critical, dampening the positive effects deriving from an increase in sales in China (+4,2% in 2018, with a seventh absolute place in the regional classification), India (+21,5%) and Eastern European markets (above all the Czech Republic, +14,5%).
The analysis carried out at the level of individual districts shows as many as sixteen realities (out of twenty-three monitored) with exports growing (more than 1%) in 2018. The figure drops to nine if we consider only the performance in the fourth quarter. Between best performing districts, which are positioned in the top ten places of the regional ranking for export evolution in 2018, five metalworking realities emerge: Metalworking Arno Valley (+14%), Metals of Brescia (+8,9%), Lumezzane taps, valves and cookware (+6,4%), Metalworker from the lower Mantua area (+5,5%), Instrumental mechanics of Bergamo (+3,3%). These are realities that benefit from a heterogeneous range of commercial outlets, with an average export range that is getting longer and longer, thanks also to the growing weight of new markets. The exports of 2018 are also particularly dynamic Sebino Bergamasco rubber (+7,4%), despite the slowdown in demand coming from German automotive companies, and from Footwear from Vigevano (+6,6%), driven by the luxury markets. The performance of the two wood districts was also above average, i.e Wood and furnishings from Brianza (+5,7%) and Casalasco-Viadanese wood (+3,6%), And Pavia rice (+4,3%).
