The exports of the 147 Italian industrial districts mapped and monitored by Intesa Sanpaolo in the first nine months of the year showed a very slight decline, equal to -0,7% on a trend basis. Therefore, the rush of the districts on foreign markets was temporarily interrupted, which had seen them protagonists of a growth in exports for 6 consecutive years and a cumulative increase of 44% compared to 2009 (equal to +29 billion euros).
Signs of a slowdown also emerged in the 22 Italian technological poles: in the first nine months of the year, exports recorded a very slight increase (+0,4% the trend variation in the first nine months of 2016). The good performances of biomedical (+4,1%), aerospace (+2,7%) and pharmaceutical (+1,8%) were, in fact, almost canceled out by the decline suffered by ICT (-4,5, 2015%). More than a setback, we can more properly speak of a phase of settling on the levels of excellence of 94,6, when district exports had reached a new all-time high, at 13,6 billion euros, on 2007, XNUMX% more than in XNUMX.
The weak phase of the international economic cycle (and, specifically, of some emerging markets) and, more particularly, of world trade, had an impact on this pause. In the same period and in the same sectors of specialization of the districts, German exports also showed a very slight reduction.
Therefore, the competitiveness of Italian district areas is not in question. In confirmation of this, it should be noted that between January and September more than half of the districts monitored recorded an increase in exports (79 out of 147). We are therefore in the presence of a highly heterogeneous economic situation, as is also evident from reading the data at the sectoral, regional and commercial outlet level.
The growth in exports of districts specialized in construction products and materials (+5,6% the change in the first nine months of 2016 compared to the previous year), in other intermediate goods (+4,6%; represented by the districts of rubber and plastics), furniture (+0,9%), food and beverages (+0,4%) and intermediates for the fashion system (+0,4%), offset by the decline in sales exports in mechanics (-0,4%), in consumer goods of the fashion system (-2,1%), in household appliances (-3%), in metal products (-3%) and in metallurgy (-7,1, XNUMX%).
At the regional level, the districts of the North-East obtained the best results, driven by two of the Italian regions with the highest district intensity, Emilia Romagna (+2,4% the trend variation in the period January-September 2016) and Veneto (+1%), where the tiles of Sassuolo (+8,6%), the mopeds of Bologna (+11,7%), the thermomechanics of Padua (+8,5%), the prosecco of Conegliano Valdobbiadene (+14,1%) and meat from Verona (+17,8%). The trend of the districts was less positive in the other Italian regions.
A mixed picture is also present at the level of commercial outlets: district exports continued to grow in mature markets (+1,1%), while they suffered a decline in new markets (-4%). In particular, the positive performances achieved in Spain (+6,1%) and the new progress experienced in the United States (+1,9%) stand out, where district exports updated the record levels reached in 2015. The disappointing The results obtained in the new markets were instead affected by the slowdown of some important emerging economies, such as the United Arab Emirates and China, and by the crisis in the Russian market.
However, the jump in sales of the districts in Iran (+43,5%) should be noted, thanks above all to the ability of engineering companies to make the most of the growth opportunities that emerged following the withdrawal of international sanctions on this country. In 2017, district exports, after a year of substantial adjustment to the record levels reached in 2015, will be able to grow again in the presence of an improving macroeconomic framework. The latest economic indicators available, in fact, point to a generalized acceleration of manufacturing production and services, especially in Europe, the United States and Asia.
The European market should continue to offer a slightly positive contribution to the growth of district exports, in the presence of an economic framework still dependent on monetary stimulus and conditioned in the short and medium term by a growing degree of political uncertainty.
Non-European markets will therefore once again be driving forces in 2017. In particular, the United States will be able to give a boost to district exports, thanks to sustained growth above potential and exchange conditions which, at least in first half of the new year, will be favorable (dollar/euro exchange rate between 1,03 and 1,08). It remains to be seen whether and how this scenario will be modified by Trump's victory, who on the one hand promised a more expansive fiscal policy and on the other hand expressed protectionist positions.
The recovery in the prices of raw materials is then putting many emerging economies back on a growth path, led by Russia which, before the Russian-Ukrainian crisis, had represented an engine for the evolution of exports in many districts specialized in fashion , in furniture and in mechanics. 2017 could therefore represent a year of recovery of district flows towards this market. The dynamics of district exports will then be able to once again be supported by the OPEC countries, thanks to the recovery in oil prices which will feed the demand of these markets.
The foreign channel, however, alone cannot be enough to revive the growth of the district fabric, especially for those realities with a low propensity to export. A restart of internal demand is therefore essential for those industrial districts more oriented towards the Italian market.
Attachments: District monitors
