“Italy is a strong country. Never forget that. Of course, we have to work on the public debt, in any case much lower than the amount of savings, but our companies boast positive results, better than the French and German ones”. Carlo Messina, CEO of Intesa Sanpaolo, thus collects the occasion of the annual report on the economy and finance of industrial districts to send a very specific message to the political world: let's avoid increasing public debt, the Achilles' heel that could trigger new problems on the markets. On the contrary, we leverage our often underestimated strengths to tackle the most serious problems, such as youth unemployment and the Mezzogiorno. Two boulders that can be removed because Italy, which has strong shoulders, has already embarked on the path of growth as confirmed by the chief economist of the Institute, Gregorio De Felice: “Italy is not growing at Chinese rates – he admits – but at German rates, yes. Indeed, in 2017 more than Germany”. Without forgetting that the 2017% increase in gross domestic product in 1,5 occurred despite the problems of real estate, which is still weak, and the lack of demographic boost, the now long-standing handicap of the Bel Paese.
In short, Intesa, the Italian financial flagship (50 billion in new loans to households and businesses in 2017, 400 billion in total loans, a trillion in administered savings, but also 10 meals and 6 beds guaranteed by the commitment to assistance ), spear signs of confidence in the future, chasing away the nightmare of a possible return to the brink of the abyss touched in 2011/12: foreign accounts, unlike then, show a comforting plus sign, the industry is competitive, not even the prospect of the end of Quantitative easing needs to worry about that much. “The rates of the new issues – comments De Felice- will remain much lower than the interest paid on securities maturing, which are in the order of 3-4%”. In short, there are the premises to continue to grow and thus accelerate the repayment of the debt. Optimism of the will? Not only. Because the X-ray coming from the Report, based on the estimates of the 2017 results as well as on the company financial statements in the years 2008-16 of almost 18 companies belonging to 153 industrial districts and almost 54 non-district companies, justifies a pink vision. Also because from the analysis emerge i structural changes for the better of the productive fabric, from the financial crisis to the subsequent slow recovery. In particular:
- In the two-year period 2016-17, the cumulative growth in the turnover of the districts was equal to 4,6%, the EBITDA margin stabilized at 7,6%. Between 2008 and 2017, turnover grew by 13%, almost 5 percentage points more than non-district areas. In short, the margins in the districts are higher than those prior to 2008, while in the rest of the economy the gap is still clearly visible.
- The Oscar for the liveliest and most profitable districts is shared by three areas of the North-East Lombard-Veneto: the eyewear of Belluno, the rubber of the Sebino area of Bergamo and that of the Prosecco of Valdobbiadene. But the areas of excellence in the district (6 in the agro-food sector, 7 in the mechanical sector) are now widespread along the Peninsula: half (ten out of twenty) are in the North-East, a quarter (5 ) in the North-West, two in the Centre, three in the South.
The rally has what it takes to continue over the next two years: overall growth should be around 5,8%.
Domestic demand will remain buoyant thanks to the boost of investments in machinery supported by the Industry 4.0 Plan. But foreign demand will grow more. Unit margins will also rise over the two-year period, despite the competition. To strengthen the competitiveness of companies will contribute:
- the quantitative and qualitative change of the production base. The number of companies has decreased but companies have higher turnover values and have stronger strategic levers, starting from internationally registered trademarks (in strong growth), to patents and quality certifications.
- The growing presence abroad, with branches in China and the United States. The average distance of district exports has risen to 400 kilometers (especially for furniture and building materials).
- The return to Italy of already delocalized productions and the renewed interest of foreign investors.
- Among the traditional districts stands out the dynamism of agro-food districts (+29,2% growth in turnover between 2008 and 2017) supported by the know-how and strength of PDO productions.
- Accelerate the technology. 69% of the mechanical engineering companies declare that they produce 4.0 machinery thanks to the strong links with the Ict supply chain. The teamwork between mechanics and ICT is demonstrated by the low average distance (under 150 kilometres) between suppliers and buyers of technology in the area of Milan, the Veneto and the Motor Valley which runs between Bologna and Modena.
- Lastly, there is no shortage of innovations demonstrating the effectiveness of the district formula. Last born the cosmetics district, which already today has a turnover of 2. billion, concentrated above all in the Lombardy area (Lodi and Cremona in the lead), thanks to the proximity to suppliers of essences, packaging and machinery manufacturers.
Who knows, maybe we can hope for a nice make-up of the public finances.
