All is silent, at least in appearance, on the front of the trade war between the US and China. And uncertainty holds back the bags of the two duelists. Donald Trump consoles himself with the trade agreement signed yesterday evening with South Korea, while negotiations with Japan are in full swing today: Shinzo Abe is ready to make concessions to the US in order to protect the car giants. While awaiting tomorrow's Fed decisions, the attention of the markets is concentrated almost everywhere on politics. In the USA, where Trump will perform at the UN assembly today, the new chapter of Russiagate is taking hold: the President seems intent on getting rid of the Deputy Minister of Justice, Rod Rosenstein, who is following the case. In the UK, the Brexit debate is raging, while in Italy it is picking up steam maneuver comparison. Rising oil prices have also shaken the markets.
UP TOKYO, HONG KONG ON HOLIDAY
the Japanese Stock Exchange is up slightly (+0,2%), while the CSI 300 index of Shanghai and Shenzhen loses 1%. Both markets were closed yesterday for the Autumn Equinox celebrations. Exchanges in Asia remain very low, like yesterday, because today trading is at a standstill in Hong Kong. The Seoul Stock Exchange is also closed, so we will have to wait a day to find out how investors judge the trade agreement with the US.
BRENT OVER $81. SAIPEM AT THE TOP
Brent oil confirms its highs of the last four years at 81,32 dollars a barrel, yesterday the reference future gained 3%.
Brilliant oil companies that yesterday limited the decline in Piazza Affari. Saipem, the best stock on the list, gained 3,6% at 5 euro, the highest since February 2017. Eni +1,67% after the detachment of the interim coupon, Tenaris +1,01%.
THUMP OF MICHAEL KORS (-9%) AFTER THE PURCHASE OF VERSACE
Weak closure for Wall Street. The Dow Jones index lost 0,68%. S&P500 (-0,35%). It holds the Nasdaq (+0,08%) thanks to Apple (+1,4%) and Facebook (+1,5%). The New York Times wrote that the co-founder of Instagram, Kevin Systrom, has resigned from his posts and is preparing to leave the social network of image sharing now owned by Facebook.
Michael Kors fell sharply (-8,21%) awaiting the announcement of the purchase of Versace spa for a valuation of two billion dollars (including debt).
Fly to London Sky (+9%), transferred for 30 billion pounds to Comcast (-6,7%).
DRAGONS: INFLATION RISES, WAGES WILL FOLLOW
"Inflation is expected to strengthen in the coming months, as shrinking slack in the labor market will boost wage growth." Thus Mario Draghi gave a shock to the markets in a long speech by the president of the ECB in a speech to the economic and monetary affairs committee of the European Parliament. But this time the central banker's intervention was not enough to cancel the negative effect of the tug-of-war between Beijing and Washington.
Milan suffers more than all the markets, affected by the increase in the spread: -0,91%, to 21.339 points.
The other price lists are also in red. Frankfurt closed down 0,62%, Paris -0,33%, Madrid -0,84%, London -0,44%, Zurich -0,58%.
DI MAIO: WE IMITATE FRANCE ON THE DEFICIT
“France will run a 2,8% deficit to finance its economic maneuver. We are a sovereign country just like France. The money is there and can finally be spent on behalf of the citizens. In Italy as in France”. Thus Luigi Di Maio taking advantage of the assistance of the budget project that Paris is about to present in Brussels.
BUT THE PARIS SPREAD IS 32 POINTS AGAINST 243
The deputy premier's statements pushed the spread to touch 243, the 2,93-year yield jumped to 32,4%. Conversely, the gap between French and German stocks narrowed to XNUMX points.
Two considerations can explain the diversity: 1) the different growth rate of the economy (+1,7% for France in 2019, 1,1% for Italy) and the stock of debt (98,8% for Paris, 132,5 Rome).
Draghi returned yesterday to the theme of the damage that the words of Italian politicians have caused to families and businesses. "Households and businesses - he said - today pay banks higher rates than before: the banks have raised rates by an amount of around 20 basis points, especially for small and medium-sized businesses".
Pimco and Aberdeen Standard, two large asset management companies, have once again advised to sell or underweight the Italian debt in the portfolio. Société Générale calls for caution, as it believes a sharp increase in volatility is likely in the next two weeks.
THURSDAY BTP AND CCTEU FOR 5,25 BILLION
In this context, the month-end auctions kick off today: we start with 1,75 billion Ctz and Btpei. Tomorrow it will be the turn of the six-month Bots (6 billion against the same amount due). Thursday ends with the offer of two new BTPs: 2 billion for a new five-year plus another 2 billion for the ten-year plus 1,25 billion Ccteu.
In the fourth quarter, the Treasury announced that it will issue a new three-year BTP and a new CTZ in November 2020, both for a minimum amount of 9 billion euros. Same minimum amount also for the Ctz 27/11/2020.
BANKS IN THE VIEW. UNDERSTANDING -2,1%, CARIGE FALLS
The tensions on the spread affected the banking sector. The index of Italian institutes leaves 1,11% on the ground. The negative drop of 2,1% of Intesa, the most representative stock of the system, stands out. In contrast, Bper gains 1,15%.
Pesante Carige: -10,71%, with strong volumes. Finished the battle for governance control, the speculative appeal on the Genoese bank has disappeared, fueling the exit of investors who had bet on a short-term M&A operation, while the specter of a new capital increase looms. In the afternoon, the bank announced that it will respect the times required by the ECB to finalize the "operational and strategic" plan.
In evidence Fineco Bank, which achieved a new historical record at 11,865 euros. The stock decreased in the final stages in the wake of the weak performance of the European markets and Wall Street, closing at 11,69 euros.
TELECOM -1,4%, IT IS ABOUT PERSIDERA AND SPARKLE
Telecom Italia loses 1,41% in the day of one meeting of the board of directors (eight hours of discussion) on the various strategic dossiers involving the group. A bit of everything was discussed, starting from the possible acquisition of the Brazilian Nextel, dear to Amos Genish. However, it can only be discussed the allocation of 5G frequenciesmore expensive than expected. The fate of Persidera and the possible sale of Sparkle are still to be defined. With regard to governance, one of the issues of friction between the shareholders, a greater control of the nomination and remuneration committee on top management was decided.
FCA, MOODY'S RAISES THE OUTLOOK
The industrialists were weak: Prysmian -2,37% and Brembo -1,43%.
Fiat Chrysler also down (-0,90%). Last night Moody's confirmed its Ba2 rating, raising its outlook from stable to positive. "The change in outlook to positive reflects continued improvements in the group's credit metrics," Falk Frey, chief analyst for Moody's FCA, said in a statement. "If these parameters are maintained - he concluded - we could see an increase in the rating in the next 12-18 months".
ASTALDI AND INWIT UNDER FIRE
Astaldi -5% after Il Sole 24 Ore announced its intention to define a new capital strengthening plan which should also include a restructuring of the bond.
Inwit dropped about 4,3% after Morgan Stanley cut the assessment to "underweight" from "equal-weight" with a target price reduced to 5,70 euros.
Also noteworthy is the leap of Bialetti: +21,39%, to 0,403 euros.
