The launch of four North Korean missiles in the Sea of Japan, where joint maneuvers of the Tokyo and US navy are held, is the calling card of the week. Japan has placed the military on maximum alert. Tokyo's Nikkei index marks a decline of 0,3%. The latest provocation by Kim Jong Un, enraged by the military maneuvers initiated by South Korea and the United States in recent days, does not shake the area's financial markets too much. The Seoul Stock Exchange is up slightly, despite Lotte's decline: Beijing has decided to suspend the activity of the group's supermarket chain in China after the company granted its land to US bases below the 38th parallel. Hong Kong +0,3%, Shanghai +0,3%, Mumbai +0,7%. Weak Tokyo (-0,4%), despite the leap of Nintendo (+4,1%) after the debut of the new console while the yen, the traditional refuge currency in hot moments, strengthens.
The euro trades at 1,060 against the dollar, gaining 1% on Friday. Brent oil is unchanged at $55,8 a barrel, gaining 1,5% on Friday. Gold also moved little, at 1.233 dollars.
YELLEN CONFIRMS RATE RISE
International tensions, including the heated controversy in the US raised by Donald Trump's denunciation of alleged wiretapping ordered by Barack Obama at the time, does not reduce the markets' attention to the next moves by central banks.
The Fed has the task of preventing the Wall Street euphoria from melting down the engine of the recovery. Janet Yellen, before the weekend, dissolved the last doubts about the rate increase at the next meeting, scheduled for next 14-15, of the monetary committee. The move is taken for granted by 98% of observers polled by Bloomberg.
The announcement should favor a slowdown in the US market race, which already occurred on Friday, also due to the slowdown in the oil race. But the president's "stoker" action should not be underestimated: the Bull on Wall Street is the White House's most precious ally. Spotlight on labor market statistics: the forecast is for 190 new jobs against 227 in February, enough to bring the unemployment rate down to 4,7% from 4,8%.
EUROPE WAITS FOR DRAGON'S MOVES, CHINA SLOWS DOWN
No less important is the outcome of the Directory of the European Central Bank, scheduled for Thursday 9. It is almost unanimous that the Central Bank, despite the rise in inflation, will not touch rates or revise government bond purchases in advance ( however destined to fall from 80 to 60 billion from April), but the update of the macroeconomic forecasts will be important, as will the tones that Mario Draghi will use in the final press conference.
Great maneuvers also in Beijing, where the work of the 12th National People's Congress, China's most important legislative body, has just begun. Official forecasts show that the government is targeting 3% inflation. An increase in GDP of around 6,5% is expected, slowing down on the previous 6,5-7% gap, also because military spending will rise less than expected (+7%, but for the first time over a thousand billions of dollars) as well as reducing the consumption of coal and steel. Great attention is paid to the public deficit (to be kept at 3%) and to the alarm over the debt: many provinces, we read, are struggling to meet ordinary administrative expenses. Confirming the mutation of the Dragon is the growth in the size of the banking system, which has surpassed that of the EU.
DB RAISES 10 BILLION IN INCREASES AND DISPOSAL
On the business front, the spotlight is today on Deutsche Bank, which it decided to launch last night a capital increase of 8 billion in addition to the sale of a minority stake in Deutsche Asset Management for 2 billion. The bank however renounced the sale of Postbank which will be incorporated into the group. Two deputies to CEO John Cryant have been appointed: Marcus Schenk, current CFO, and Christian Sewing, head of wealth management. The positive outcome of the Unicredit operation has thus convinced another systemic bank to choose the path of the market.
Today under examination by the Stock Exchanges there will also be the negotiation for the merger between the English Standard Life with the other asset allocation giant, Aberdeen. An 11 billion pound deal for a portfolio of 650 billion assets under management, the second largest in Europe.
PSA-OPEL, CHALLENGE AGAINST FIAT CHRYSLER IN EUROPE
Great news also on the industry front. Today the most important European auto operation since 1994 (purchase of British Leylands by BMW) will be officially announced: the purchase by the French PSA of Opel and Vauxhall from General Motors, after a lightning-fast negotiation that lasted three weeks. The CEO of Peugeot, Carlos Tavares, will lead a group with 200 employees with 28 factories in the Old Continent, where in 2016 a total of 4,4 million vehicles came, behind only Volkswagen. The operation, which will involve an outlay of less than one billion, will be announced at the opening of the Geneva motor show. The market expects an upward reaction for GM, lightened by the German losses, but also for Fiat-Chrysler: in fact, the FCA-GM dossier can be reopened.
Finally, it is possible that the EU Commission will again today give the go-ahead for the purchase of the Swiss Syngenta by Chem China. This will open the season that will revolutionize the global agribusiness structure. Within a few weeks, the green light will come to Dow Chemical-Dupont in the summer for the Bayer-Monsanto operation.
SNAM ACCOUNTS TODAY. FRIDAY AT AUCTION BOT AT 12 MONTHS
Always lively in Europe on the debt market, conditioned by the approaching electoral deadlines: there is only a week left before the vote in the Netherlands. In this context, the Treasury auctions will start on Friday with the placement of the annual BOTs. The BTP closed the week improving to 2,12%, from 2,18% last Friday. The spread narrows to 176 basis points. The yield on the 0,18-year Bund rose in one week from 0,36% to XNUMX%.
The agenda of Piazza Affari today includes the quarterly of Snam, Molmed and Tecnogym. During the week also the Board of Directors on Ubi's accounts (Tuesday) and the quarterly Monte Paschi (Thursday). The capital increase up to 35 million by D'Amico International Shipping starts this morning. The takeover bid for Lactalis on Parmalat will close on Friday. Finally, today, the deadline for the definitive presentation of an arrangement with creditors or an application for approval of a debt restructuring agreement to the Treviso court is set for Stefanel.
PIAZZA AFFARI ATTEMPTS THE ENcore AFTER THE RECORD WEEK
Driven by the recovery of the banks, Piazza Affari closed the best week since mid-December by recording the most consistent rise among all the European stock exchanges. The FtseMib index has risen by 5,6% in the last five sessions. The recovery was driven by banking stocks (+13% the sector index): Banco Bpm +16,1%, Ubi +15,2%, Unicredit +14,2, Intesa +12,8% and Bper Banca + 12,3%.
