It will be a short week for the markets, today without the Wall Street reference, closed for President's day. But, judging by the premises, it promises to be an intense week both on the geopolitical and economic-financial front.
There are two reasons for optimism: the progress of the negotiations on tariffs, which will resume tonight in the USA, demonstrating that the agreement is approaching; no less important, the feeling that central banks are preparing to launch new stimuli to counteract the slowdown in economies.
SHANGHAI GAINS 3%, LONDON ABSOLVES HUAWEI
Hence a departure to all Taurus. Asian stock markets opened trading with a sharp rise: Tokyo advanced by 1,8%, also thanks to better-than-estimated data on machine tools.
Shanghai takes off (+3,1%), supported by the rally of banks. Good news has arrived from London: British intelligence has acquitted Huawei of spying charges, 5G will be able to speak Chinese in the face of US accusations.
Equally euphoria reigns in Hong Kong, on the Korean Kospi and in Sydney, thanks also to energy stocks.
India is an exception: the Mumbai index (-0,4%) is down for the fourth consecutive day and has lost more than 2% since the beginning of the year. The rupee is the only major Asian currency to weaken against the dollar today.
OIL STILL AT HIGH HIGHS
Brent oil traded this morning at 66,3 dollars a barrel, at Friday's levels but at the highest since October, last week it gained 6,7% supported by the tightening of OPEC and the sanctions on Iran and Venezuela. It should be noted that the referendum on the Constitution will be held in Cuba this week: the president will not be able to have more than ten five-year terms. Farewell to the era of Fidel.
Worth noting is the stability of gold, traded this morning up to 1.323 dollars (+0,2%, the highest in nine months) despite the return of risk appetite.
BCE, AFTER COEURÉ ALSO REHN AMONG THE DOVES
It is the confirmation, according to analysts, of the return to an expansionary monetary policy by the central banks: on Friday, the member of the executive committee of the ECB, Benoit Coeuré admitted that the hypothesis of a new disbursement of maxi loans at very low prices, could be taken into consideration in the event of other signs of an economic slowdown. Over the weekend, the Finn Olli Rehn, already among the leaders of the hawks in Brussels, also spoke out for an expansive policy.
The euro traded this morning at 1,1312 against the dollar.
FITCH, RATING D-DAY FRIDAY
In the Eurozone, the spotlights are on Spain, following the confirmation of early voting on 28 April but even more so Fitch's judgment on Italy's rating (today BBB), which will be announced on Friday: recent data on the slowdown in the economy do not predict no good. Something more will be understood on Thursday with the release of the flash PMI indices on the trend of the economic situation in the Eurozone.
SPOTLIGHT ON FED MINUTES
Together with the tariffs, the indications coming from the Fed will keep Wall Street's attention alive. The minutes of the mid-January meeting of the Federal reverse will be published on Wednesday, the one which made official the central bank's change of course on rates and budget size.
Also worth following are the speeches by the president of the New York Fed, John Williams, of Saint Louis, James Bullard and, above all, by the vice president Richard Clarida. Markets are demanding to know whether or not the central bank's balance sheet cut will continue.
TOP BUSINESS PLACE WAITING FOR TELECOM AND SNAM
Piazza Affari restarts after having experienced the best week in the last 22 months: the Ftse Mib (+4,7%) surpassed the 20-point barrier on Friday (at 20.270 points), a level not seen since mid-October.
At the beginning pay attention to Snam's accounts (including the dividend proposal) released in the morning.
However, all eyes are on Tim's advice who on Thursday, in addition to presenting the accounts, will illustrate the business plan. A crucial point, pending the purchases announced by the Cdp, will be the future of the network: at the beginning of the month Gubitosi met with the CEO of Open Fiber (50% Enel and 50% Cdp) to start a process of "comparison and collaboration". The accounts of Inwit are also arriving today.
SATURDAY THE WARREN BUFFETT SHOW
A positive start is expected for the European lists.
The US stock exchanges are preparing to liquidate the last remnants of the quarterly campaign, 50 in all. To follow the accounts of Wal-Mart, particularly awaited after the negative data on the trend of consumption.
Saturday 23 will be released the letter from the oracle of Omaha, or rather the long-awaited report of Berkshire Hathaway signed by Warren Buffett.
