Italy could be China's official gateway to the West. On the occasion of Xi Jingping's visit to Rome on March 22, the Bel Paese, reveals Deputy Minister Michele Geraci in an interview with the Financial Times, is preparing to sign an agreement with Beijing to officially support the "Belt and Road" initiative , the Chinese investment project. The target? “We want to support the sales of Made in Italy in the area with the highest growth rate” replies Geraci. But the move has already caused alarm in both Brussels and Washington. "It is a step that will not bring any benefit to Italy in the short term" said a spokesman for the US National Security Council, adding that "in the long term it will cause great damage to the country's reputation".
While waiting for the next developments, one can only acknowledge that the climate continues to be at high tension on tariffs and trade, despite the prospect of an imminent peace between the US and China. Meanwhile, Kim will take care of warming up the temperature: North Coea has put an already disused missile launch pad back into operation.
THE CSI INDEX +27% SINCE THE BEGINNING OF THE YEAR
In the midst of so much confusion, the markets rely on the guidance of central banks, committed to fighting the slowdown in economies, in part caused by rampant economic nationalism. Thus the action of the Chinese central bank continues, waiting for the ECB to finally take the field tomorrow which, more than the Chinese dragon, can dispel the shadow of the recession.
Thus the rally of Chinese stock markets continues. The CSI 300 index of the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets gained 0,2% this morning to 3.825 points: since the beginning of the year, the increase is 27%, but if you look at it in euros it is 32%. Hong Kong's Hang Seng (“only” +13% since the beginning of the year) rose by 0,2%.
The Seoul Stock Exchange slows down (-0,3%), Tokyo is also down (-0,7%).
THUD OF GENERAL ELECTRIC, BIOTECH SUFFERS
Wall Street closed on parity last night. The S&P500 index -0,1% again failed to climb to 2.800, which is very important for technical analysis. The Dow Jones was also down slightly (-0,05%), while the Nadaq was flat (-0,02%).
General Electric's drop (-4,5%) stands out on the US stock market: CEO Larry Culp warned that the group's industrial activities will still burn cash in 2019.
The biotech sector was down (-0,5%) on the news of the unexpected resignation of Scott Gottlieb, the number one of the Federal Drug Administration, appointed by Trump two years ago, who had introduced accelerated procedures for the marketing of new products. For the same reason, some tobacco companies, opposed by Gottlieb, reacted to the news with an acceleration to the upside.
OIL IN DECLINE. THE BIG OILS INVEST IN SHALE
Oil is down on the back of the likely increase in US inventories. Brent is down 0,7% to 65,4 dollars a barrel.
Exxon Mobil and Chevron have announced an increase in the production of crude oil from the large Permian Basin bituminous field, located between Texas and New Mexico. Exxon forecasts an increase of one million barrels per day by 2024, Chevron expects growth of 0,9 million by 2013.
Due to Donald Trump's anger, the dollar takes flight, the euro brakes to 1,1298 with a new decline (-0,35). The markets are betting that, especially after the latest data arriving from the Eurozone economy, the ECB is preparing to intervene vigorously to counteract the slowdown in progress. The trend, moreover, comes 24 hours after the confrontation between Cecilia Maelstrom, the EU trade representative and her US colleague Robert Lightizer, perhaps the last chance to avert the war on car duties between the US and Europe, led by Germany .
BREXIT SCARES BM AND TOYOTA
Flat session in Piazza Affari: -0,01% at 20.715,91. Madrid is also almost unchanged (-0,02%). Frankfurt did better +0,24%; Paris +0,21%. London +0,7%. New collateral damage coming with Brexit: BMW is considering moving the production of the Mini while Toyota has announced it wants to review the programs for the new models already announced for the British factories.
The European Central Bank and the Bank of England have activated a permanent swap line, in preparation for Brexit, scheduled for later this month. Under the deal, the Bank of England will offer euro loans to UK banks on a weekly basis and the ECB will receive pounds from the Bank of England in exchange for euros.
Istat confirms: Italy is in recession. Fourth quarter 2018 GDP fell by 0,1% on a quarterly basis. This was revealed by Istat, revising upwards the estimate at the end of January (-0,2%). In tendential terms, compared to the same period of the previous year, the change in GDP is instead nil. In this case the correction was downwards (+0,1%).
GREEN EU TO THE FUND FOR SCAMMED SUBSCRIBERS
Positive session for the Italian bond market. The spread closed at 254 (2 points less than the day before). The 2,705-year yield is XNUMX%.
European Member States can intervene with forms of relief in the event of improper sales of bank bonds to retail investors.
This was stated yesterday, during a hearing in the Senate, by the European head of competition, Margrethe Vestager. The Budget law establishes a fund with an endowment of 525 million per year in the three-year period 2019-2021 in favor of savers who have suffered an "unfair prejudice" from banks placed in administrative compulsory liquidation after 16 November 2015 and before 2018 January XNUMX.
It was a historic day for Greek debt, galvanized by the Moody's promotion. Athens placed 2,5 billion euros of a new ten-year government bond at a rate set at 3,90%, lower than the initial guidance of 4,125%. Orders amounted to more than four times the offer. The spread between Italian and Greek government bonds fell to just 94 percentage points.
TIM SHINES, ELECTRIC FAT CHRYSLER, MASERATI CAN'T BE TOUCHED
In Piazza Affari, Telecom Italia shone +2,96% supported by the purchases of Cdp which should present itself at the meeting on March 20 with a 10% stake to be deployed in support of CEO Luigi Gubitosi.
Spotlights also on the auto sector, enlivened by the indications coming from the Geneva Motor Show. Carlos Tavares, CEO of PSA-1,2%, relaunched his interest in Fiat Chrysler (+0,9%). “Everything is open – said the Peugeot manager – if we earn we can remain masters of our future, we can dream anything”. Mike Manley, CEO of FCA has not closed the door: "We can go it alone with a very solid future, but if there are opportunities to strengthen that future I will clearly go and see them." Meanwhile, the manager has confirmed the investment plan in Italy and denied the hypothesis of a sale of Maserati, "our flagship". “They are fine – he concluded – never been better. 2018 was a record year."
Ferrari -0,13%: CEO Camilleri presented the new F8 Tributo at the Motor Show, heir to the Ferrari 488 GTB, celebrating the V8 engine. Cost: 236 thousand euros-
Weak Brembo (-1,4%), which does not recover after the crash on Monday (-4,1%). Kepler lowered the target price to 10,80 euros from 11,0 euros. Hold judgment confirmed. More radical was the rejection by Equita which lowered the recommendation from Buy to Hold.
WEAK BANKS, THUD OF CAMPARI, MONCLER AND AMPLIFON
The banking sector is weak despite the agreement reached with the EU for the renewal of public guarantees on non-performing loans. Ubi Banca (-2,46%) and Banco Bpm (-1,5%) fell sharply. The Bigs are also down: Unicredit -0,39%, Intesa -0,18%.
Asset management, on the other hand, was effervescent, driven by Azimut (+2,56%) ahead of Fineco (+0,85%) and Banca Generali (+0,54%).
Prysmian ended 2018 with a combined adjusted Ebitda of 837 million and expects 2019 combined adjusted Ebitda between 950 million and 1,02 billion. The data is slightly below the expectations of the consensus. Management is confident that the problem on the WesternLink project will not be repeated.
They disappoint some of the most popular titles in recent weeks. Campari plummets (-6,5%), down sharply after the publication of the results. 2018 was closed with sales of 1,712 billion euros (+5,3%), an adjusted EBIT of 378,8 million, for organic growth of 7,6%.
Moncler is also under fire (-2,6%). Berenberg decided to lower the rating to Hold da Buy, but raised the target price to 37 euros from 36 euros.
Amplifon corrects downwards (-2,8%) which also announced better than expected results: profits up to 113 million euro (+19,3%) allow for the distribution of a dividend of 14 cents (+27,3 %).
Prysmian's results (+0,23%) were announced after the closed stock market: 2018 closed with combined adjusted Ebitda at 837 million and sees 2019 combined adjusted Ebitda between 950 million and 1,02 billion. The data is slightly below the expectations of the consensus. Management is confident that the problem on the WesternLink project will not be repeated.
HAPPY DEBUT FOR PUSSY: ILLIMITY +4,2%
In the rest of the list, the brilliant debut of Illimity (+4,2% at 7,6 euros) should be noted, the freshman born from the merger between Spaxs, the Spac founded by Corrado Passera, and Banca Interprovinciale. The institute intends to provide credit to companies with high potential, but still with a low or no rating, and buys secured and unsecured corporate NPLs (non-performing loans), with the aim of managing them through its own platform.
The Lazio Regional Administrative Court has suspended the delisting of Parmalat at the request of Citi, the US bank which fears "irreversible damage" to its credits (431 million) already recognized by a US court.
