The resilience of the Eurozone economy in the face of the Greek crisis in June and July represented a positive sign in terms of investor confidence in the bloc but, beyond the positive effects deriving from a weaker euro and the drop in of crude oil, "there is no evidence that the economy is much stronger than it was a year ago". This is what Moody's experts write in a report published today in which they indicate to keep around the1,5% growth estimates for the block in 2015 and 2016 adding that he does not expect growth to pick up thereafter.
In particular, to be frozen by Moody's are Italy and France, for which the rating agency forecasts growth "at 1% or slightly below this year and around 1% or slightly above in 2016. The greatest growth – reads the report – it is above all due to lower crude oil prices and the weakening of the euro, but these growth rates are not sufficient to bring down unemployment rates significantly”. Worse goes to Greece, for which Moody's predicts a "severe recession" as capital controls, the risks of a euro exit and the lack of visibility about the political and economic climate "stall spending plans".
Within the euro area, Spain is on the other hand, proving to be able to accelerate to such an extent that Moody's has raised its estimate for the country this year to 3% while in 2016 there should be a slight slowdown to 2,7 % due to high unemployment and excessive import growth. Growth of 4% is forecast for Ireland.
