After August industrial production data published today by Istat (+0,3% on the month and -0,7% on the year), Confindustria's Contro studi released its new estimates for September in the afternoon, which should record a drop of 0,2%.
“In the third quarter of 2014 there was a drop in production of 0,6% on the previous one – writes the CSC -, further worsening compared to the -0,4% that was recorded in the second quarter and the -0,1% in the first. The fourth quarter inherits zero cyclical variation from the third quarter”.
This dynamic, the via dell'Astronomia analysts point out, “is consistent with a marginal drop in GDP also in the summer months. The qualitative surveys conducted on manufacturing companies confirm an overall weak picture and do not allow us to foresee significant improvements in the autumn months”.
According to Markit, the manufacturing PMI in September recorded a decrease in the orders component (down to 50,2 from 50,9, a minimum for 15 months), and this, according to the CSC, "heralds a substantially flat dynamics of activity in the coming months . Domestic demand pushed orders downwards while foreign demand offered a positive contribution, being judged to be accelerating compared to August (54,1 from 53,0), thanks to higher orders from non-EU countries”.
