Aphrodite, harbinger of unseasonable snow, makes Europe tremble: Piazza Affari opens the session with a fall of more than two percentage points. Cyprus, the island of the goddess, threatens to shake the stock markets. Asian markets are down sharply this morning after Brussels agreed on aid to Cyprus overnight. Current accounts have been touched for the first time. Throughout the weekend, in Nicosia, long lines of citizens, on foot and by car, were in fact created in front of the branches of banks equipped with ATMs. The very harsh conditions imposed on Cyprus have been appreciated by Germany (“The interests of Europe and of German taxpayers have been respected – said Angela Merkel's spokesman) but fears have been raised around the world that the crisis of the Old Continent has taken a further step towards collapse.
BRUSH REDUCTIONS ON THE DAY OF THE GOVERNORS
The Tokyo Stock Exchange marks a drop of 2,42% this morning. Similar losses were recorded in Hong Kong -2,12% . The Asia Pacific index marks -1,7%. Futures on Standard & Poor's mark -1,4%. Sharp fall of the euro to 1,2889 against the dollar and 121,86 (-1,4%) against the yen. It seems impossible that Cyprus could elicit such a reaction. But the Cypriot case risks being the spark that can trigger a shower of sales, so far contained by the action of the central banks. Rigidity towards Nicosia is a sign that people don't like it.
It is in this context, complicated by the risks of a real estate bubble in China, that the new governor Haruiko Kuroda, a firm supporter of an accommodating monetary policy, is about to take office in Tokyo. Instead, it was confirmed by the new leaders Zhou Xiaochuan, governor of the People Bank of China, who has already announced a squeeze on real estate loans.
USA, BETWEEN INSIDERS AND APPLE DIVIDENDS
In the last two weeks, the American S&P index has risen by 3% arriving yesterday to touch the historic record of 1565 points set in October 2007. On Friday, after the disappointing data from the Michigan Wall Street confidence index, the Dow Jones lost 0,17%, S&P -0,16%. The Nasdaq fell 0,30%.
Anticipation is rising for Apple's decisions on the dividend. According to the panel of analysts consulted on Bloomberg, the company will distribute 4,14 dollars per share equal to 15,6 billion, double the previous year. Apple, which has already approved a buyback of up to 10 billion, can distribute this coupon without resorting to cash deposited outside the US, thus avoiding having to pay taxes. The record fine in the history of insider trading was imposed on Friday evening: 616 million dollars imposed on the Sac, the company headed by Steven Cohen.
BUSINESS SQUARE, THE ONLY ONE IN RED
Piazza Affari closed the week with a drop of 0,8%, which brings the performance from the beginning of the year back to -1%. The Stock Exchange has so far been penalized by the uncertain situation resulting from the elections at the end of February. From this morning the negotiations for the formation of a government are in full swing: any positive outcome, far from obvious, could push the market to close the gap with the other exchanges, all of which are in positive territory. Government bonds moved little: the 10-year BTP ended the week with a yield of 4,59% with a spread of 313, down by 2 basis points
BANKS, THE BUDGET OF BUDGET
The Oscar of the week went to Banca Pop.Emilia, up 10% on Friday after +7% on Thursday. Investors appreciate the strong clean-up of the balance sheet, announced in the 2012 accounts. Closure with sharp increases for Banco Popolare +4,2% and Pop.Milano -3,6%. The reaction for Unicredit was more tepid +0,5% which presented on Friday the accounts for the fourth quarter of 2012 characterized by more provisions (4,6 billion euros) than expected. Earnings were lower than expected but the positive surprise is a dividend of 9 cents per share. Intesa fell by 1,6%, Mediobanca -3%, Ubi -1%.
IT HAPPENED (AND WILL HAPPEN) IN THE BUSINESS SQUARE
New twist in the Impregilo dossier, on the eve of the takeover bid which starts this morning. Something new emerges from the publication of the information prospectus for the Salini takeover bid: if Gavio does not adhere to the public offer, the merger between the Roman builder and the general contractor will not take place. And the choice of the Piedmontese group will probably come only at the end of the tender offer period, therefore in late April.
No comments arrive from the headquarters of the Gavio group: first the prospectus (170 pages) must be read and analyzed thoroughly and then, together with the consultants of Nomura, Unicredit and Mediobanca, a decision will be made. So far the prevailing orientation is to adhere to the offer, perhaps at a higher price than the current 4 euros. Igli holds 80 million Impregilo shares at €3,65 and 40 million at €3 net.
The public offer for the sale of 10% of Moleskine starts this morning, at an offer price that fluctuates between 2 and 2 euros (ie for an overall valuation of between 65 and 400 million). In 530, on the occasion of the sale of 2012% to the Syntegra Capital fund, the company was valued at 67,7 million. The offer will close on March 200, the first listing is scheduled for April 27.
Among the best blue chips, A2A stood out on Friday with a rise of 5,8% following the presentation of the 2012 data. Equita raised its recommendation to "buy". Backtracking by Generali -2,9% after the leap the day before (+9%). Among other insurance companies, Cattolica lost 1,7% after Thursday's record leap (+12%). Weak closing for Eni -1,4%, while Saipem gained 2%.
