The damage is enormous, but the global economy, after the moment of bewilderment and fear, tries to react, relying this time, unlike what happened with Sars, on the availability of the Chinese authorities, who have embraced the thesis of transparency. But, compared to 2003, the consequences of the quarantine on traffic risk being much more serious: JP Morgan believes that the growth of the Chinese GDP will not exceed 4,9% in the first part of the year, against 6,1% at the end 2019, with heavy repercussions for everyone, given that "China's weight on the value of the global economy has multiplied by three in recent years".
In the next few hours, the World Health Organization will pronounce the declaration of global emergency. The cut in growth estimates and the latest numbers on the progress of the disease (170 dead and 7.771 infected) have relegated the other appointments to the background: the Fed confirmed its policy en bloc, with a few more dovish tones. The position of the Bank of England is more uncertain. A few hours after the meeting, analysts failed to anticipate whether the choice of a cut before Brexit will prevail or not.
IN ASIA TECH EVEN HOLDS DOWN, AFTER THE COUNTS TESLA FLYS
But what counts are the losses of Asia which, little by little, is emerging from the forced vacation. The Nikkei of Tokyo (-1,7%) loses hits, together with the Hang Seng of Hong Kong (-1,7%) and the Kospi of Seoul (-1,5%).
The declines in the stock markets of Sydney (-0,4%) and Jakarta (-0,3%) were less extensive. China's stock exchanges remain closed for New Year's holidays, but Taipei has reopened (-5%).
Despite Apple's excellent performance (+2,6%), manufacturers of hi-tech components are suffering on Wall Street. Japanese chipmaker Advantest loses 6%, Casio 5%. In Hong Kong, Apple's supplier AAC is down 6%, Sunny Optical is down 6%. Foxconn, FCA's next partner in the electric car, which works a lot with Apple, plummets in Taipei by 9%.
WALL STREET FLAT, GOOD MICROSOFT AFTER THE RECALLS
Last night Wall Street closed on parity, in a session almost unaffected by Federal Reserve communications: Dow Jones -0,04%, Nasdaq -0,09%, S&P 500 +0,06%.
The quarterly campaign continues. Worth noting is the flight of Tesla: +11,62% after the accounts. In the after hours, Microsoft is also on the rise (+4,14%).
Governor Jerome Powell reiterated that the economic picture is good, with "moderate" growth and almost non-existent inflation. During the press conference, the number one of the Central Bank of the United States declared that in the future the strategic approach in the fight against low inflation could be changed.
Bonds rose, with the 1,56-year Treasury Note at a three-month low at 2% (-1,579 basis points). Gold at 0,2 dollars an ounce, up 0,6%, from +XNUMX% at yesterday's close.
NEW REDUCTIONS FOR OIL: -12% IN JANUARY
Brent oil fell by 1%, to 59,3 dollars a barrel, also due to the effect of the indications coming from the strategic stocks of the United States. The benchmark crude oil for the United States, WTI, loses 1,2%, seventh down in the last eight sessions: at these price levels, January would close with a drop of around 12%, the worst month since May .
TRUST IS GROWING: PIAZZA AFFARI AT THE TOP SINCE MAY 2018
European stock markets slowed down yesterday in the afternoon, waiting for the Fed and news from China.
In this context, the flight of Milan stands out: +0,57%, to 24.157 points, after reaching a maximum of 24.198 points, a peak never touched since May 2018 (24.197).
Consumer confidence in December grew for the third consecutive month to 111,8 points, from the previous 110,8 and better than estimates (110,5).
Paris advanced by 0,3% despite the setback of Lvmh (-0,5%). The French luxury giant's organic revenue growth of 2019% in 8 was lower than the 8,7% expected by analysts. Lvmh had to discount "the difficult situation in Hong Kong in the second half of 2019" and fears about the effect of the epidemic on tourism.
Frankfurt slows down in the final stages (+0,1%), galvanized at the start by data on German consumer confidence, surprisingly rising to 9,9 points from 9,7, better than expected.
THE BANCO DE SANTANDER FLIES TO MADRID
The most tonic place is Madrid (+0,68%), driven by the exploits of the Banco de Santander (+3%), which has given the credit sector a boost.
The season of grace for the Italian debt continues, which flourished after the vote in Emilia-Romagna.
The ten-year BTP yield fell below 1%, approaching the all-time low, around 0,80%. Spread contracting to 135 basis points, the lowest since November. According to Pimco, world leader in the sector, it could reach 100 basis points thanks to the recovery of the government's credibility.
6-month Bots have been assigned at a minimum since April 2018. The auction of medium-long bonds will be held today. The 0,37-year Bund trades at -XNUMX%.
LEONARDO FLIES FOR SHOPPING IN SWITZERLAND
Banks below the highs at the end of the session, despite the spread below 140 points. Sales on Mediobanca (-0,75%), which is affected by the possible exit from the shareholding structure of Banca Mediolanum, which in turn is on the rise together with the other Big names in the managed sector.
The happiest note concerns Leonardo (+3,4%), awarded later the acquisition of the Swiss helicopter company Kopter, which strengthens its leadership in the sector. Pirelli (+2,57%) and Prysmian (+1,4%) also performed well.
Guizzo of Telecom Italia (+2,3%) after the recent series of reductions.
Atlantia (+0,5%) consolidates the recovery on the eve: the statements of the Deputy Minister for Transport, the 5 Star Giancarlo Cancelleri, fueled the expectations of a compromise with the government that could avoid the revocation of the motorway concession.
RONALDO/LAPO, COUPLINGB RECORD
Cir +8,08%. Equita has raised its recommendation to buy.
De Longhi also did well (+7,21), in turn promoted to buy by Kepler Cheuvreux. Italia Independent was priceless on Aim Italia: a theoretical +49,71% after the exclusive five-year global agreement for the creation of eyewear collections under the CR7 brand.
