There are some timid signs of improvement in the Italian economy, but are these sufficient to ensure a recovery in employment that is at socially unsustainable levels? The analyzes conducted by the Royal Economy Study Center chaired by prof. Mario Baldassarri, presented to the Federation of Banks, Insurance and Finance, tell us that a certain improvement is being felt, but that it is too modest a progress to lead to reliable results on the financial variables of the deficit and public debt, and certainly inadequate for what concerns growth and therefore the creation of new jobs.
Baldassarri estimated the effects of the stability law just approved by the Chamber, and of the structural reforms in the pipeline such as the Jobs act, Justice, PA reform and competitiveness decree, reaching the conclusion that the boost that these measures could give is modest, like the a crime the Government itself admits when in the DEF it estimates growth in 2015 of just 0,6% which, moreover, is reduced to just over zero by the analysis of Real Economy. In short, it is a matter of a too prudent strategy on the part of the Renzi government and devoid of a real change of pace. Baldassarri proposes three measures that could accelerate our rate of growth: firstly major cuts in public spending for 40 billion to be used to reduce taxes on businesses and citizens, a reduction in debt of 300 billion through a real estate fund to offer citizens on a voluntary basis the possibility of exchanging their public bonds for shares of the Fund, and finally an international pressure to bring the Euro back towards parity with the dollar.
Apart from this last suggestion which in reality belongs to Draghi who in fact must be able to accelerate the implementation of the objectives announced several times, while up to now the ECB has implemented a substantially restrictive policy, the other two suggestions directly concern the choices which it is up to Renzi do. Surely the Prime Minister appears endowed with courage and determination which, however, he has not used adequately in the economic field. He has not been incisive with regard to cutting costs, and has let himself be caged by the Regions which will also suffer a reduction of only 2 billion compared to 2014. In fact, the deception of calculating the cuts with respect to the trend forecasts and not to the actual expenditure has continued of the previous year. In this way, if the offices expect a 10% increase in spending and a 5% cut is made, there will still be a 5% increase in spending.
Baldassarri proposes to cut spending by 40 billion. 20 billion could come from the Regions, without cutting services for citizens, but affecting the thousands of streams of useless spending that are made. For example, the Regions give 17 billion in support every year to productive activities which are of little or no use and which could be cut without problems (apart from those of the councilors' customers). Even in health care, the mere application of standard costs could save about 10 billion. Even the State can reduce part of the transfers to businesses by boosting public investments in return and proceeding with the complete abolition of IRAP, the most unpopular tax for entrepreneurs.
According to Baldassarri's econometric model, this measure alone would bring next year's growth to 1,2% with good job creation. Growth that would be further strengthened by the launch of a serious public debt reduction policy, to then have an even stronger boost if it were possible to reduce the strength of the Euro by pushing the exchange rate with the dollar below 1,20 as early as next year to then reach parity in 2017.
These are more than punctual forecasts of the exercises which show that Italy needs even more courageous political decisions even if many of the participants in the debate, from Fortis to Messori, from Emilio Rossi to Pierluigi Ciocca, from Stefania Tomasini to Marco Simoni, from Paolo Savona to Sergio De Nardis, underlined real critical aspects, however emphasizing on average some element of optimism deriving above all from the sharp drop in the price of oil which alone could be worth one (0,4% more), and from the weakening of the EUR.
In recent years Europe has made many mistakes mainly due to its slow and cumbersome Governance, which generally leads to downward compromises of dubious effectiveness, but now something is moving as demonstrated by the Juncker plan, which, however modest, signals in every case a change of attitude on the part of Brussels. Overall, however, the prevailing opinion seems to agree in stating that, apart from Draghi's further moves, we cannot expect much from Europe and the rest of the world. We also have to go it alone by trying to change our international reputation and thus restore confidence in our country's prospects.
Luigi Abete, president of the Federation who hosted the seminar, insisted on this, emphasizing that precisely for reputational reasons we cannot afford to unilaterally violate the 3% deficit constraint, which would be counterproductive to open an explicit debate within the government on the from the Euro, even if only as a weapon of pressure towards Brussels, that reforms must be accompanied by a policy of support for small and medium-sized enterprises, especially to facilitate their access to credit, and that finally we ourselves, politicians, trade unionists, journalists , entrepreneurs, we managed to set up our controversies without damaging the overall reputation of the country, as unfortunately often happens. It is enough to see what has already happened for several years with article 18, which we have made into a convenient alibi for all those who look at Italy from the outside and have no time to waste interpreting all our battles of principle. In short, says Abete, we ourselves must begin to talk not only about what is missing, but also to value what we are doing. The expectations of both entrepreneurs and consumers change even when trying to see the half-full part of the glass!
