Peace reigns in the world of finance. Also on the front of international relations there is an unexpected brightening among the superpowers. But, bolt from the blue, the balloon war broke out after midnight, destined to steal the show from other news. However, the financial markets open in positive conditions, in the wake of last week's record increases on Wall Street and the resolution of an intricate Chinese corporate crisis: the authorities have given guarantees on the solvency of Huarong, the country's largest manager of bonds at high and very high risk that missed a coupon payment and postponed the presentation of quarterly data.
The CSI 300 of the Shanghai and Shenzen lists are up by 2%, the Hang Seng of Hong Kong by 0,8%, the Taiex of Taipei by 0,5%. The other Asian markets are also advancing with the exception of Mumbai (-3%) following the new leap in the number of infected people in India: yesterday there was a new record, 273 thousand.
MOODY'S: 5.400 BILLION TO FOOD CONSUMPTION
As far as the USA is concerned, the 1,56-year Treasury notes closed at 500%, on the lows of the last month. The S&P5.400 index future is down slightly. Optimism is fueled by the liquidity available to the public: according to Moody's, 6 billion lire, 2005% of world GDP, have entered consumers' pockets. With the end of the lockdowns and the end of the emergency, families should allocate this money to shopping and the purchase of goods and services. The propensity to spend is very high, indeed very high: the Conference Board consumer confidence index is at its highest level since it existed, i.e. since XNUMX.
THE BIG: A 20-TEAM SUPER TOURNAMENT. UEFA DOES NOT FIT
It's Monday, but football steals the show from other news by also mobilizing leaders, from Boris Johnson to Emmanuel Macron. All against a professional football schism with unpredictable financial consequences. Shortly after midnight, 12 major European clubs (Real Madrid, Atletico and Barcelona, Juventus, Inter and Milan, plus Chelsea, Liverpool FC, Manchester City, Manchester United and Tottenham) announced the launch of a Super League for a championship in which the 15 Founding Clubs will participate and a qualification mechanism for 5 other teams, which will be selected each year on the basis of the results achieved in the previous season. The event's financial plan (including stadium interventions) will be supported by JP Morgan, which has already allocated 6 billion dollars in this regard.
The reply from UEFA and the federations involved was immediate: “Enough is enough. We will consider all the measures available to us, at all levels, both judicial and sporting, in order to prevent this from happening. Football is based on open competition and sporting merit; it cannot be otherwise". That is, the splitters risk disqualification from all competitions, including national championships. It is in this context that UEFA is meeting today to announce the reform of the Champions League, but also complaints and a 50 billion euro lawsuit against the rebels.
ANDREA AGNELLI ON THE ATTACK. MILAN AND INTER AMONG THE CONJURIES
To follow the reactions on the Juventus title. The president Andrea Agnelli, vice president of the Super League, has resigned from the ECA, the body that brings together the professional clubs of Europe which he presides over, but reiterated that the Juventus team still intends to participate in Serie A.
16-YEAR BTPs ON OFFER
A week opens under the banner of public finance and will close with the judgment of the S&P rating agency on Italy. The Treasury is launching the third edition of the Btp Futura this morning. As always, the formula provides for increasing rates and a loyalty bonus for retail subscribers. The novelty is the duration of the issue, extended to 16 years. With the possibility of selling halfway through (8 years) and collecting part of the loyalty bonus. The acceleration of the GDP estimates (parameter to which the revaluation of the coupons is linked) bodes well for the result.
THE ECB IS ATTACKING THE RENEWAL OF THE PEPP
The launch falls just a few days before the directorate of the ECB which, in all likelihood, will not intervene on rates, but, perhaps, on the size of the interventions envisaged by the PEPP, which could increase in a "significant" way. This is what President Christine Lagarde claims, according to which the European economy still needs two crutches (monetary and fiscal policy) to support the recovery. Hence the decision to increase purchases of the Pepp program from the current 60 billion per month until next March. For Barclays analysts, another 700 billion should arrive to cover at least until the end of 2022. But the hawks' hostility must be overcome: the governor of the Bank of Holland, Klaas Knot, has even advised to interrupt the purchases earlier than expected.
For all, the goal is to defuse the increase in bond yields, which risks having a negative impact on the economic recovery in Europe. The Italian maneuver announced by Mario Draghi has ended up in the crosshairs, which contemplates a sharp increase in the debt/GDP ratio.
S&P'S REPORT CARD ON ITALY ON FRIDAY
Italy will present the national recovery and resilience plan to the European Union on April 30, sources at Palazzo Chigi communicate. After a passage in the Council of Ministers, Prime Minister Mario Draghi will illustrate the plan to the Chambers on 26 and 27 April.
On Friday, S&P Global will decide on Italy's rating: they expect a "non-event" from Unicredit. In the last meeting, despite the difficult economic situation linked to the pandemic, the agency raised our country's outlook from 'negative' to 'stable' and confirmed the 'BBB' rating, two steps above the junk bond level .
CHINA AND USA AGREE ON CLIMATE CHANGE
On the macro front there is unexpected good news: China and the United States, despite growing international tensions, agreed after a meeting in Shanghai between environmental policy leaders, John Kerry and Xie Zhinhua, to work together to fight the climate crisis , promising “concrete actions in the 2s”. The first objective is an agreement on the maximum ceiling for CO40 emissions within the Paris agreement (at the time denounced by Trump) to be signed at this summer's UN summit. The agreement between the two giants precedes Thursday's "Earth Day" when President Joe Biden will host the leaders of XNUMX "polluting" countries.
QUARTERLY, WAITING FOR NETFLIX
The agenda today includes data from Japan on industrial production and trade balance. Even in the USA, corporate reporting holds sway. This morning the US quarterly season gets underway: in the front row IBM and Coca-Cola, as always one of the most faithful thermometers of consumption. But attention is already focused on the Netflix accounts due out tomorrow: Wall Street wants to understand how the end of the lockdown and the progressive return to normality have affected the streaming giant, one of the big winners of the closure season. At the end of the year, Netflix had reached 204 million subscribers. The forecast is 6,2 million more since the beginning of 2021.
TODAY CREVAL ASSEMBLY, MINI WAVE OF COUPONS
Going back to Italy, today the financial news foresees the meeting of Credito Valtellinese for the approval of the financial statements and the appointment of the board of directors on the eve of the expiry of the takeover bid launched by Crédit Agricole which last week increased its offer to 12,5, XNUMX euros, above the price marked by the title on Friday.
Coupon detachment day for Piazza Affari. They pay the dividend in the main list Banca Bpm (0,06 euro), Campari (0,55), Cnh Industrail (0,11), Ferrari (0,867), Stellantis (0,32), Unicredit (0,12). In the mid Cap: Maire Tecnimont (0,116), Piaggio (0,026, balance). MTA: MTA: Banco di Desio e Brianza (0,0679 euro; ordinary shares – 0,0815 euro; savings shares).
CNH IN THE SPOTLIGHTS AFTER THE NO TO THE CHINESE
To follow Cnh Industrial after the end of the negotiations between Exor and the Chinese of Fang for the sale of Iveco. It was the Agnelli finance company itself that announced the bankruptcy of the operation, to which the opposition of the government is certainly not extraneous, which had mooted the use of golden power. But Exor is limited to talking about disagreement on the price.
CNH has already stated that, as an alternative, the spin-off with listing on the Stock Exchange of the activities of the Iveco perimeter, trucks and buses, will be continued, emphasizing "the significant opportunities for the development of the On-Highway business, deriving from more sustainable and aligned with the objectives of the European Green Deal”. At stake are the funds of the EU and the Recovery Fund on alternative fuels, from electric to hydrogen, a sector in which Cnh is ahead thanks to the partnership with the US Nikola of which it controls 7%.
