The hands of Brexit move forward. "But this time - was the final comment of Donald Tusk, president of the European Council addressed to the United Kingdom - please do not waste time". The European Union, after an animated eight-hour meeting, agreed in London to postpone it to October 31, Halloween, but Great Britain will have to participate in the European vote at the end of May. A "humiliating" decision for Theresa May according to the FT, which marks a compromise between Angela Merkel, this time in the guise of the good cop, and President Emmanuel Macron who would have preferred a clean cut to the inevitable new uncertainties: Great Britain will have to prepare for participate in the European vote on 26 May for a Parliament that he will leave (barring surprises) a few months later. In the meantime, the prime minister will find it difficult not to succumb to the anger of the anti-EU conservatives. The pound moved little, recovering slightly to 1,3099 against the dollar, above the lows (1,2945) reached in the last period.
The compromise closed a day of great appointments that didn't offer a few novelties. The minutes of the Fed, published yesterday evening, confirmed the new soft attitude of US bankers who see significant risks for the economy, however solid. The Fed expects real GDP growth in the US to slow "markedly" in the first quarter, reflecting a "softening in growth in consumer spending and business investment." No news from the ECB either, which prefers to conserve ammunition while awaiting developments in a complicated geopolitical situation.
ASIAN EXCHANGES WEAK, NASDAQ RISES
In this, the markets are lagging behind: the risk of an interest rate increase has now completely vanished but starting tomorrow, with the publication of the quarterly reports of the major US banks, the cost of the recent slowdown in the global economy will be measured.
Stock markets in Asia were weak this morning: Japan -0,1%, Hong Kong -0,6%, China -2%.
The US markets rose slightly last night: Dow Jones +0,03%, S&P 500 +0,35%, Nasdaq +0,69%.
UBER TOWARDS A 100 BILLION IPO
A record IPO is looming for Uber: the company aims to debut on the list in May with a valuation of 100 billion dollars.
Tesla rises +1,4%: Congress has increased the space for the transfer of income to pollute. After the deal with FCA Elon Musk is ready for good new business.
Oil prices are at a five-month high as fighting in Libya raises supply disruption concerns. Wti at 64,34 dollars a barrel, Brent at 71,57 dollars a barrel.
EUROPEAN FUTURES CONTRASTED AFTER DRAGHI'S WORDS
Contrasted this morning the futures of the European stock exchanges, in a climate of expectation that has been confirmed in the words of the president of the ECB who said he was "ready to use any tool to deal with contingent situations that may arise". Mario Draghi took of the weakening growth but also expressed greater confidence in the convergence of inflation. And so the directorate of the ECB unanimously decided to see how the economy will evolve before setting the price and details of the new series of refinancing auctions facilitated for banks. Markets disappointed but not too much: it was almost obvious that Draghi would not say anything about the details of the new Tltro auctions which will be launched starting in the autumn. The warning to Italy is even more obvious: the negative data on GDP, commented Draghi, “does not come as a surprise. The priority is to restore economic growth and employment. And Italy knows how to do it”.
Flat closing for Piazza Affari at 21.671 points after having marked a decline in correspondence with Draghi's words.
The other European lists also moved little: Frankfurt +0,47%; Paris +0,25%; Madrid -0,03%; London -0,05%.
SIGNS OF RECOVERY FOR INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION
A breath of fresh air for Italy, after the black forecasts of the IMF, has come from industrial production data, which rose well beyond expectations in February, with a monthly +0,8% against the estimated -0,8% and from the (revised) +1,9% in January, in the second consecutive cyclical increase after four months of decline at the end 2018. The Bel Paese is thus starting to emerge from the technical recession marked at the end of 2018. This is the forecast of Prometeia and the Barclays research office, which both estimate flat growth for GDP for the first quarter of 2019, but do not exclude that this estimate can be revised upwards.
11-YEAR BTP RATES AT 10-MONTH LOW
The downward trending interest rate scenario painted by the main central banks (Fed, ECB and Boe) has pushed many bonds to negative yields forcing large investors to raise the bar of risk appetite to obtain some return on investments.
This explains the records of the Italian bond paper, in apparent contrast with the renewed alarms of the IMF and other institutions on Italian public finance, in great dust in the days of the auctions. The yield of the 2,40-year BTP fell yesterday below the 2018% threshold for the first time since May 2018. The yield of the 3,39-year BTP also saw its yield drop to levels not seen since July XNUMX at XNUMX%.
Also yesterday, the Treasury sold all 6 billion euro of 12-month Treasury bonds offered at auction. The average yield rose to 0,07% from the 0,06% of the March placement. Demand reached €9,56 billion with the coverage ratio rising to 1,59 from the previous 1,51.
NEW TITLE DEBUT AT 7 YEARS OLD
Today's auction will be an important testing ground. The Treasury will offer BTPs at auction with 3, 7 and 15 year maturities up to a maximum of 7,75 billion euro. Expected debut of the new 7-year with maturity July 2026, which will detach a coupon of 2,1% compared to 2,5% of the current benchmark in November 2025.
On the gray market last night at the end of the yield of the new 7-year BTP traded in the 2,10% area from 2,05% marked in the mid-March auction.
MEDIOBANCA GOES SHOPPING, AGREEMENT TOWARDS THE AGREEMENT WITH PRELIOS
Even among the blue chips of Piazza Affari there are minor fluctuations with little volatility. At the extremes we find Campari (+1,5%) on the one hand, Cnh (-2%) And Unipol (-1,5%) on the other.
Weak banks (-0,56%) in the absence of signals from the ECB.
Unicredit (-0,92%) is the worst of the main list; its shares have been weak since the day of rumors about a possible takeover of Commerzbank. Spotlight on Jan Pierre Mustier's declarations today in the meeting.
Mediobanca (+0,32%) goes shopping. The institute bought 66% of the Parisian investment bank Messier Maris, a financial boutique specializing in large cross-border deals.
Intesa Sanpaolo -0,7%. The CEO Carlo Messina confirmed in an interview with the Financial Times that the bank is in talks to transfer to Prelios a significant part of the NPLs still in its charge, already more than halved compared to 2017. The institute, Messina reiterated, does not intend to participate in European M&A operations in the credit sector. Fiery words against "the incredible mistake of the European antitrust" on the occasion of the ban on the intervention of the interbank fund in Tercas.
Falling yields favor utilities, all of which closed above parity: Italgas + 1,15% Ivy + 0,99% Snam + 0,68% Enel + 0,28%.
PRYSMIAN POSTPONES MEETING DUE TO PROBLEMS IN SCOTLAND
Among the industrialists continue the problems of Prysmian (-0,15%). The BoD yesterday revoked the call for the ordinary shareholders' meeting of 17 April because it deems it appropriate to review the 2018 financial statements in the light of the claims for damages related to the WesternLink submarine cable affair. The company estimates impacts on 2018 adjusted Ebitda between 60 and 80 million euros.
Down too Leonardo (-0,55%) still weighed down by the hypothesis of tariffs on EU products, including helicopters. However, the share remains above the 9,9 euro level, surpassed in mid-March, after the positive revision of the business plan.
RUSSIAN PARTNER FOR PIRELLI, SALES ON TOD'S
Pirelli +0,1%. The Russian investment company Concern Rossium has a potential stake of 6,239% with voting rights equal to 3,474%, according to the latest Consob surveys.
In luxury it loses its shots Tod’s (-1,9%). RBC has cut its target to 40 euros.
Moncler +0,1%: the chairman and CEO, Remo Ruffini, sold 93.744 shares at around 37 euros per share, for a total of around 3,46 million euros.
