It was evident that in Europe the sovereign wing had put the EU in difficulty, but now there are too many variables that undermine the heart of European politics. German Chancellor Angela Merkel is in serious trouble: first the humiliation of seeing an important ally like Voljer Kauder lose his role as group leader of the CDU/CSU in the Bundestag, then the images of Merkel's press conference with Erdogan, who watches impassively and smiling to the defenestration from the press room of a Turkish journalist guilty of wearing an innocent T-shirt that reads "Freedom for journalists".
The weakness of the German chancellor in this last term was clear to all ever since this summer she sacrificed Jens Weidmann, the hawk at the head of the Bundesbank, on the altar of realpolitik, to move him like an inconvenient pawn from the candidacy for the ECB to the presidency of the EU Commission, supporting the candidacy of Barnier, the Brexit negotiator, for the ECB, provided that Brexit does not become a bigger problem than what the markets are (not) discounting.
Never before has confusion reigned supreme, especially after the 26 September Labor Party Congress voted on the motion of its shadow minister for Brexit, Keir Starmer, who is riding a dissent on leaving the EU that grew up in the party two years after the mockery referendum. The situation appears paradoxical, because 90% of Labor members who are members of the party would now like to remain in the European Union (this is the result of a Yougov poll), a figure that is far from the 35% which had caused the division within the party.
The official date for Brexit is six months away and Theresa May is in dire straits after the Checkers Plan was rejected by Strasbourg on 19 September. On the very day of the big rejection, with investors facing a blank slate, the market suffered its worst loss in 15 months.
The Conservative Conference opened on September 30 with a spectral May and members ready to go to the end of a judicial divorce far from the consensual process hoped for by the Premier. The pride of the Tories is contrasted by the serious risk that Brexit, among other negative effects, will deal the fatal blow to the English property market, but bizarre proposals immediately appear in the Assembly: from a real estate taxation for foreigners to a festival of the rebirth of perfidious Albion.
The more Merkel and Macron are vulnerable because they are weak on domestic politics, the more they will raise their voice with May to divert attention from the flaws at home. But on Brexit there is no time for minuets, because time is running out and demands to limit the damage for both sides.
The financial markets reopen on the Italian case this first week of October, which with the current political uncertainties does not really see our country as a safe haven to reap the possible benefits of the divorce with London, and also the efforts for a tax-facilitated district for Milan nothing they can in the face of competition from Madrid, Dublin, Paris, Frankfurt and Amsterdam.
A quarter full of financial instability awaits us, because the "NO DEAL" scenario has certainly not yet been correctly priced by the markets and neither Great Britain nor the EU seem ready to take over the reins of a compromise that is necessary but that nobody can afford.
