Theresa May hopes for a miracle. After five days of heated parliamentary debate, the House of Commons is called on Tuesday to express itself on the Brexit agreement reached between the government in London and Brussels. The vote was supposed to take place in early December, but Downing Street decided to postpone it at the last minute because it was clear that the plan would not pass. A month later, however, the picture has not changed and rejection still seems inevitable, since, in addition to the Labor opposition, it is also determined to vote against a large part of the Conservative Party.
To seek a last-minute defense against friendly fire, the British premier issued a dramatic warning to say the least: “In the event of a negative vote – she said – we will find ourselves facing a catastrophic and unforgivable fracture for our democracy. My message is simple: it's time to put the games aside and do what's right for our country."
THREE DAYS TO PREPARE A PLAN B…
If this appeal is not enough - as is probable - the prospect of the No hay trato, i.e. an uncontrolled exit of the United Kingdom from the European Union. And this despite the fact that Parliament has voted an amendment which requires the government, in the event of rejection of the agreement, to reappear in the Chamber after three days with new proposals.
…BUT BRUSSELS CLOSES THE DOOR
A mission that at the moment seems impossible. May, in the company of her legal staff, has just returned from a series of meetings in Brussels that have led to nothing, because the European authorities are not willing to substantially change their hand on the agreement. “Nothing can be changed any more – ruled Jean Claude Juncker, number one of the European Commission – at most we will be able to clarify ourselves better”.
CORBIN AIMS FOR THE GOVERNMENT
Meanwhile, Jeremy Corbin has a motion of no confidence in the government ready in his drawer. The Labor leader's goal is to once again return to early elections, oust the Conservatives from command and organize Brexit more soft possible.
WITHOUT AGREEMENT THE STERLING RISKS THE CHALLENGE
But what are the market forecasts? According to a Bloomberg poll, May has only a 15% chance of passing her proposed agreement, while a second referendum (a project supported, among others, by the Labor mayor of London, Sadiq Khan) is given at 25%. Analysts believe that a new consultation, bringing with it the hypothesis of a sensational permanence of Great Britain in the EU, could drag the pound to its highest level since last May. Conversely, a no-deal exit would plunge the British currency to its lowest since the 2016 pro-Brexit vote.
