The wait is over. From this morning at 7 GMT time, UK voters vote on whether or not to leave the EU. The outcome of the consultation will be made public tomorrow at 8, after the end of the ballot counting by the Manchester electoral office. But the first indications on the vote should be disseminated during the night between Thursday and Friday, probably around 2 am on June 24, preceded at 23 pm by the first exit polls. The final result should be known between 4 and 5 in the morning. Given the uncertainty, the authorities invite you to be wary of exit polls or projections that could turn out to be wrong. Meanwhile, long queues were already formed in the City in front of ATMs yesterday. After weeks of uncertainty and stress, however, the markets thus present themselves for the appointment of d Day.
PRUDENT STOCK EXCHANGES, IMF AND YELLEN POSITIVE BUT NOT TOO MUCH ON THE USA
The pound traded this morning at its highest since January at 1,4844 (+0,9%), following the publication of the latest polls in favor of Remain.
Wall Street uncertain: Dow Jones -0,27%, S&P -0,17%, Nasdaq -0,22% . Caution while waiting for the vote canceled out the effect of the positive data coming from the real estate market: in May, sales of existing homes rose by 1,8% to 5,53 million units, a level never seen in the last nine years. Strong decline for Tesla (-10,5%) in view of the merger with SolarCity (+3,3%); Elon Musk is the largest shareholder of both companies.
The Monetary Fund has revised its US growth prospects downwards from 2,4 to 2,2%. The economy, adds the note from the Fund, remains in good shape but there will be problems for Barack Obama's successor: a drop in labor force participation, a slowdown in productivity, a polarized distribution of incomes and high levels of poverty (the 15% of Americans, about 46,7 million people, live in poor conditions). Even Janet Yellen, speaking yesterday in the Senate, said she was concerned about the decline in US productivity.
Asian markets are ahead, but cautiously: Tokyo +0,5%, Hong Kong +0,2%. Weak Shanghai (-0,1%).
MORGAN STANLEY: MILAN FAVORITES BY REMAIN
The European Stock Exchanges are up slightly. The Paris Stock Exchange closed by 0,2%, Frankfurt +0,5%. London (+0,56%) and Madrid (+0,40%) also rose. According to Morgan Stanley, in the event of Remain's victory, the "periphery" will be favoured, starting with Piazza Affari. The sectors that will have the greatest potential for upside are banking, insurance, telecommunications and the media. Among the titles in sight, Intesa, Mediaset and Telecom Italia. Just in the very last minutes of the Milan exchanges, a survey was released which sees the "Remain" front at 44% against the 45% of the "Leave". In Milan, the FtseMib index closed the session down by 0,6%, conditioned by the drop in oil stocks: Eni closed down by 1,5%, Saipem -2,4%, Tenaris -1%.
RIYADH: OIL PRICES TOWARDS NORMALITY
Brent fell 1,5% to 49,8 dollars a barrel. In the USA, weekly inventories of crude oil decreased less than expected (-917 barrels, against a forecast of -1,7 million barrels). But in an interview Saudi Minister Al Falih argued that the season of overproduction is now over and prices are normalizing.
30-YEAR BUNDS RETURN 0,82%. THE TREASURY OFFERS 1,5 BILLION BTPEI
The yield on government bonds was almost unchanged (Bund 0,05%, Btp 1,42%), a sign of a suspended situation, with investors awaiting the response at the polls. Germany placed 820 million of a 30-year Bund at a yield of 0,82%, its lowest ever. On the occasion of the placement on Monday 27 June, the Ministry of the Economy will make available to investors between 500 and 750 million of the sixth tranche of the 15-year Btpei 15 September 2032.
BANCO POPOLARE: INCREASE IN SUBSCRIPTION TO 99,4%
The happiest (but expected) note for the banking sector arrived in the evening. The €1,5 billion capital increase by Banco Popolare closed successfully (-99,377%). 990% of the option offer was subscribed, for a total amount of approximately XNUMX million euro. The unexercised option rights will be offered on the Stock Exchange starting tomorrow.
“It is an enormous satisfaction – commented the CEO Pier Francesco Saviotti -. I am particularly happy because we obtained this result in a very difficult market context, with a large participation of the retail sector and without the intervention of the guarantor banks Mediobanca and BofA Merril Lynch to whom I would like to thank”.
UBI BEST BLUE CHIP WAITING FOR CUTS
In the rest of the sector, the performance of Ubi should be noted: game down by about one point, with a minimum of 2,8620 euros, the Bank recovers and is the best blue chip on Wednesday with an increase of 1,8% , at 2,964 euros. The market has not negatively discounted the rumors according to which the 2019-20 business plan, which will be presented next Monday, will provide for the closure of 150 branches (-10%) and 2 thousand cuts. According to Equita, the creation of a redundancy fund for 2 employees could have a rather high cost for Ubi, given the extent of the reduction and the cuts already made in recent years (500 exits in 2014, 410 in 2015).
TODAY ATLANTE LANDS IN VENETO BANCA
Contrast the other banks at the end of a rare trading day: Unicredit +0,8%, Intesa -0,1%, Banco Popolare, Pop. Milan -0,2%. The announced flop of the increase in Veneto Banca, forced to resort to the Atlante fund, weighs on moods. The ECB has authorized Quaestio Capital, which manages Atlante, to acquire a qualified shareholding exceeding 50% of Veneto Banca and the related voting rights.
Separate discussion for Banca Popolare di Vicenza. Quaestio has denied the rumors reported by some media regarding the hypothesis under study by the Atlante Fund of the sale of Banca Popolare di Vicenza.
GENERALI, NAGEL APPROVES THE ADVANCE OF CALTAGIRONE
Sale Generali (+0,6%) after the increase in the Caltagirone group's stake to 3,19%, in second place in terms of shareholders behind Mediobanca. Alberto Nagel, CEO of Piazzetta Cuccia, said in this regard that he "favorably welcomes all the shareholders who believe in the company". Unipol (-1,4%) and UnipolSai (-0,2%) are down.
AUTOGRILL DOES SHOPPING IN THE USA, F2I LEAVES FROM METROWEB
Autogrill stands out (+0,47%). The group will acquire 12 stores in Los Angeles International Airport and 4 in McCarran International Airport in Las Vegas.
Telecom Italia rose by 0,5%, while Mediaset closed significantly lower (-1,9%). The F2i fund has decided to sell its entire stake in Metroweb to Enel Open Fiber.
Among industrialists, Fiat Chrysler down 1,2%, StM +1,4%.
