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Brexit and the Fed: fear returns to the stock exchanges

In the middle of the day, after yesterday's rebound, all the European stock exchanges are negative: Milan is the worst with a drop of 1,3% – The banks are suffering as usual, in particular Popolari but also Intesa and Unicredit: a piazza Aulenti will soon decide after Ghizzoni – Rising spreads, declining oil and dollar under pressure after the Fed's downward growth estimates.

Only one day of recovery for the European stock exchanges, which after yesterday's mini-rebound have inexorably resumed their downward path. To worry, needless to say, is always the bogeyman of Brexit (we will have it for another week, the referendum is next Thursday), to which must be added the decline of Wall Street in the wake of the Federal Reserve which lowered its growth forecasts and signaled that there will be two more rate hikes this year, even if not immediately. Screenings that leave the door open to a close next month. Result: today in the middle of the day Milan is below 16.300 points with -1,3%, London -0,5%, Paris -0,6% and Frankfurt -0,8% are doing just a little better.

In Piazza Affari they are weak banks but that's not all: FCA and Tenaris also appear among the five worst stocks of the Ftse Mib at noon with losses of around 3%. Energies are generally bad in the wake of the downward trend in oil: Brent down to 48,3 dollars a barrel, Wti down to 47,4. Saipem -2,2%, Eni -1,4%, Snam -1%. Between banks the worst are Mps and Popolari, with losses that in the case of the Sienese bank and Banco Popolare reach -4%. The CEO of Bpm, Giuseppe Castagna, is not currently worried about the outcome of the meeting which, next autumn, will have to approve the merger with Banco Popolare and, at the same time, the transformation of the institute into a joint stock company. But apparently the opposition to the merger into BPM is growing on the part of the retired shareholders who are convening the assembly today. These would aim to subordinate the ok to the merger to an improvement in internal welfare conditions, but the exchange could also end up on the table. 

Bad too Intesa Sanpaolo (-1,9%) on ongoing stress tests, even if the bank is in compliance with the requirements, e Unicredit (-2,22%): for the institute in Piazza Gae Aulenti there is talk again of pressure from members to speed up the choice of the CEO who will take the place of Federico Ghizzoni. Talks would have started yesterday with a shortlist of 5-10 managers (there is also talk of Corrado Passera) and the possibility of associating a top manager with whom to entrust the Italian sales network to the future CEO cannot be ruled out. For La Stampa, the chances of the future head of the company being an Italian are growing.

In negative territory Bank Ifis (-1,2%) after concluding two transactions, one for the purchase and the other for the sale, of two portfolios of non-performing loans in the Italian market. The nominal value of the portfolio purchased from Banca Ifis is approximately 466 million, equal to 77.600 positions. As regards the type of credit purchased, these are mainly personal loans (37%), credit cards (32%) and special purpose loans (31%). 

Bucking in the Ftse Mib, at noon, alone Ferragamo, Finecobank and Azimut. The latter marks an increase of 1% to 17 euros per share probably thanks to Credit Suisse's decision to start hedging the stock with a purchase recommendation (outperform or "will do better than the market") and a target price of 21,4 EUR. Credit Suisse also deemed Enel outperform, which in fact lost much less than the market (-0,3%) also on the rumors of a negotiation with the subsidiary Endesa for the acquisition of 60% of Enel Green Power España.

Out of the blue chip basket, it is still to be monitored Rcs (around the pairt of 0,746 euro) both because, according to press sources, a meeting is being held today between Cairo and Banca IMI to evaluate whether and how to relaunch the ops, and because, according to what Mf-Milano Finanza wrote, the group editorial would be studying entry into Mexico with, among the possible partners, the tycoon Carlos Slim in the context of the development of the international Spanish-speaking audience.

Lo BTP/Bund spread it rises from 148 basis points, an increase from 144 at the end of yesterday's session and over 146 in the last few days. The new tier is the highest since February 12th. The Italian 1,452-year rate rises to 5%. Today France, Spain and Ireland are active on the auction front. Paris offers 6-2019 billion euros in Oats 2021, 2023, 750 together with an amount between 1,25 million and 2021 billion inflation-indexed Oats with maturities 2027 and 4,5. Instead, Madrid offers investors between 5,5 and 3 billion in government bonds over 5, 10 and XNUMX years and Dublin is active on the short-term front.

Il dollar is under pressure due to the downward revision of growth estimates by the Fed. At the moment the euro is worth 1,1288 dollars compared to 1,1257 at yesterday's close.

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