The slowdown in the Chinese economy continues. In the fourth quarter of 2019, Beijing's gross domestic product rose by only 6,4%, thus reducing the growth of the whole of 6,6 to 2018%, compared to 6,8% in 2017. This is the lowest figure since 1990 but certainly does not represent a surprise for the markets, already alarmed by the fall in the car market and lower sales of iPhones even if the slowdown in consumption to 8,2% contributes to fueling the concerns.
Asian stock exchanges, however, this morning prefer to look at the glass half full: the crisis in fact increases the chances of a forthcoming agreement on tariffs between Beijing and Washington. Bloomberg's latest rumors about Beijing's willingness to eliminate the trade surplus with Washington in five years are fueling the rise in stock exchanges.
PEACE ON DUTIES NEAR GOLD DEFLATES
Tokyo gains 0,3%, Hong Kong's Hang Seng 0,4%, Shanghai and Shenzhen's CSI 300 0,6%, Mumbai's BSE Sensex 0,8%.
The dollar weakens against the yen, after five consecutive days of appreciation. The yuan is revalued.
Expectations of a settlement of the dispute between China and the United States deflated gold, down 0,8% on Friday, to move little this morning at 1.281 dollars an ounce.
US MARKETS CLOSED TODAY
Brent oil traded at USD62,9 a barrel this morning, up 0,4%.
The euro trades at 1,137, slightly higher against the dollar, after losing 0,9% last week.
The single currency appreciates at 0,883 against the pound on the day of Theresa May's presentation of plan B on Brexit. Germany is willing to offer more time in London in view of a possible new referendum. Meanwhile, Ireland has already rejected the idea of a bilateral border agreement.
The US markets are closed today for Martin Luther King Day. For now, they are not cleared in the tug of war between Donald Trump and the Democratic-majority Congress: federal activity remains blocked.
BOLSONERO'S DEBUT IN DAVOS
Inflation stalls but not in Davos. The price of hotels in the ski resort where the meeting that brings together more than 3 members of the global elite (politicians, businessmen, academics and so on) begins today has shot up to 2.500 francs a night for the cheapest rooms despite the fact that this year there will be no Donald Trump, Theresa May and Emmanuel Macron still grappling with yellow vests. Occupying the stage will be the international debut of the president of Brazil Jair Bolsonero. And there will also be room for the Italian Conte-Tria tandem.
TODAY DRAGONS AT THE EUROGROUP. THURSDAY THE DIRECTORY
The highlight of the week will be the first ECB directorate of 2019 scheduled for Thursday. Mario Draghi has already expressed his concerns about the slowdown in the Eurozone, which is heavier than expected. But the central bank is unlikely to accelerate expansionary measures, including new issuance of Ltro loans more likely in the spring.
Today, euro area economy ministers will meet for the Eurogroup together with ECB president Mario Draghi. Tomorrow will be Ecofin's turn.
MILAN, RECORD STOCK EXCHANGE: TODAY COUPON FOR ENEL AND SNAM
The Milan Stock Exchange, which returned to its highest level since mid-October on Friday, reopens its doors as the best stock exchange in the Eurozone with an increase of 7,5% since the beginning of 2019. Tim in the spotlight after Friday's crash.
At Piazza Affari today Enel (0,14 euro) and Snam (0,0905 euro) are detaching the interim dividend.
Hearings on the Carige decree are scheduled for the week in Parliament: waiting for the interventions of the Bank of Italy and Consob.
QUARTERLY, IT'S THE AIRLINES' TURN
The US quarterly season will resume tomorrow with the accounts of the airlines (Jet Blue, Southwest, American Airlines and Alaska Air) preceded today in London by the numbers of Easy Jet. The accounts of Ford, Starbucks, Johnson & Johnson will also be announced during the week , IBM, Comcast and United Technologies. So far the slowdown in profits below 20% has been confirmed, which has not happened since the beginning of 2017.
Due to the blockade of the federal offices, various market statistics have not been processed.
